France had about as good a season as Brown. Brown has better stuff. The problem is you can't accept opinions. I believe there's a 20% chance Hunter Brown pitches like a top 2 starter and an 85% chance he's as good as Abreu in the bullpen. You seem to believe there's an 85% chance he pitches as a top 2 starter or something. If you got roughly the same outcomes next year as last year, we're better off with Hunter dominating in the bullpen. I understand the analytics say Hunter should have had better outcomes. There's no guarantee that happens. The season was a large sample. So your opinion is based on projection of improvements. That's fine, but you should respect that not everyone is as pollyanna about projections. I also have more faith in Urquidy, France, and whoever.
Depends on the alternative option. I would rather have 6o elite innings in close games than 180 mediocre ones when we have mediocre pitchers. Hunter only made 155 innings as a 25 year old rookie. He has good stuff, but let's not pretend he's 22... he's turning 26 this season and has a career era as a starter over 5 and hitters have a nearly 800 ops against him. I'm not opposed to him starting, I just think he has greater value as a potentially dominant bullpen arm. I just see a much bigger drop off between him and Bielak in the bullpen than him and France as starters. It's ok to have a different opinion you know. There's no reason to be rude as your opinion is no better than mine.
Soler is a premier hitter but hearing them as targets gives me terrifying “unannounced injury to Yordan or McCormick” vibes. I am kind of in the camp that Houston’s roster is constructed to be able to take on a “DH” type even though Yordan is in line to play 100 games there. Houston can kind of take a “get a lead and keep it” approach by opening games with an utterly stacked lineup that might be a little weaker on defense then sub in better defensive players off their bench once they get the lead, which is now even more ideal given the strength in their bullpen. If Houston signs someone like Soler, he can start 60 home games in LF (essentially serving as the primary backup for Meyers, McCormick, and Tucker), and then play DH to let Yordan rest 30 games on the road. That gets him 90 games and 300+ pa, and that’s without any injury fill-ins or pinch hit opportunities. In games where he plays the field, they can bring in Meyers or McCormick or Tucker off the bench to play defense if they get the lead. An ideal player would be able to play ~20 games at 1B as well, but I don’t think any of those guys can do that. Maybe Duvall. Unless Martinez is willing to sign for really really cheap he just does not make sense. I stilll think Joc Pederson and Joey Gallo are the best fits if they’re aren’t gonna pull a shocker and sign Bellinger.
We should totally start Corey Julks in LF and have Michael Brantley PH. He’s a professional hitter. You know how valuable that is? Way more important to get him 50 AB’s vs 500. someone somewhere someday probably.
Another righthanded primary DH/LF player doesn't seem to make a ton of sense for this team. Obviously it would provide a safety net for injury, but I would rather keep DH as free as possible for Diaz and others when Yordan isn't there. Joc Pederson or Justin Turner would make a ton more sense than the other guys mentioned.
My opinion and statement is based on basic baseball understanding and common sense. You are right that you have more faith in Urquidy, France, and whoever if that whoever is Bielak. Urquidy has been here long enough that there is no doubt who he is- a solid, unspectacular #5 SP. with no projection left. France is a minor league journeyman who took years longer than average to make it to MLB and then once here got lucky over 23 starts- that lucky has to change. Bielak is a classic AAAA emergency starter who will fill up 5 or so innings but the offense better be good that day. Starting pitchers can not pitch more than once every 5 days and teams play 6 games per week on average, so every team needs at least 5 SP. Brown is one of 7 SP who project be healthy to open the season. Of the other 6, 3 are likely better than him and should be in an MLB rotation, 1 is worse but at BOR MLB level, and 2 clearly do not have MLB talent. The metrics clearly show that France and Bielak were very below MLB standards and very lucky to end up with the results they had. A SP will throw 2 1/2-3 × more innings than a RP. If this team did not have any established/good leverage relievers and he was given a chance at the 8th inning or closer spot out of need then MAYBE I could accept it as understandable, but you want Brown to be pulled from the rotation to be the #4 or #5 bullpen guy? Every team, who wants and expects to win, should pitch their better pitchers more often than their worse ones. If Brown is in the bullpen then either France or Bielak are in the rotation. I can see a guy like Arrighetti or Gordon being promoted after he has already wrapped the bed and cost the team games, but not to open the season. That is taking an MLB level pitcher and reducing his inning by 2 1/2-3 × and keeping a AAAA pitcher on the roster to cover those 100ish innings. It's probably on par with naming Jon Singleton the starting 1B 75% of the games and only giving Abreu 1 start every 4 games.
It would be more on par with making Abreu a starter because you think he'll be better than France. My opinion is based on logic and common sense. You want players to be the best they can be. If you prioritize a #4 starter over dominant setup guy that's fine, I just disagree. You talk about him being the #4 reliever as if no one is going to get hurt or be unavailable. You can talk about expected performance all you want, it was 150 innings and a 5+ ERA and he's turning 26. I think his future is as a starter, but it's unlikely he's much better than an average starter next season. You can keep insulting me all you want for having less fanboy opinion on the guy, I just have a tempered opinion on a guy who underperformed in his only experience.
Or Dana Brown is sticking to his word that Yordan just needs to be the everyday DH. I know Soler isn’t a great defender, but his bat is legit. Chas at Center with Soler at LF would be amazing. Soler also gives them a legit bench depth that you were eluding to.
What is our biggest weakness now after this signing? Starting Pitching? Our hitting? I know that having Diaz start over Maldy will tremendously help our batting overall, but is it enough?
I'm sorry that you feel I have insulted you. Since your feelings are real and it's not my place to tell you how to feel, please accept my apology for insulting you. I have nothing against you. It's your idea I dislike. As for your last statement? It's not about players being the best they can be, it's about putting players in the best position to win games. I agree that Brown would probably have better numbers and "be better" as a set up man. But 1) there is not a set up man opening, there is a 4th spot on the bullpen opening. 2) being a great RP will not help the Astros more than him being a good SP. It's the same argument as putting Jeremy Pena in the #2 spot in the lineup because he's better there. Meanwhile because he gets on base so much less often than a guy like Yordan or Bregman, the Astros score fewer runs while he becomes an All Star. I do not see your common sense argument when you are advocating to move him to a less important role, pitching fewer innings and those innings being taken by a vastly inferior pitcher. How does a dominant 60 innings and bad 160 innings make the team better than a good 160 innings and mediocre 60 innings?
The Astros were 5th in OPS and Runs in all of baseball last season, and that's with Maldonado getting 407 PA, Abreu having a disastrous first 2 months, Chaz/Diaz playing part time, and Yordan/Altuve both missing significant time. Offense shouldn't be an issue. On paper the pen is still the biggest issue, everything beyond the top 3 is a massive question mark. There are some upside players, but every single one of them could be abysmal.
Runs are impossible to break down between RH and LH pitching, but the Astros were 2nd in MLB behind Atl w/ .809 OPS vs LHP. They were 8th vs RHP w/ .751, behind Texas, Tampa Bay, Boston, and Minnesota. This is still, along with the bottom half of the bullpen, the weakness of this team.
We would be well served to have a LHH that could play Of and first base and platoon with Marisnick against RHP. That could be worth a win. That sounds like what they are now hunting for. The idea of adding any more to the bullpen in the offseason is absurd to me now. Let it play out. We have the leverage guys locked down and we have a bunch of interesting pieces that would be interesting to try out in middle relief.
I agree with this. I am actually excited by the potential at the bottom of the bullpen and the lack of leverage innings needed from them. If even one becomes Brad Peacock or Will Smith this team could exceed the 2022 postseason pitching. It may anyway.
Sounds to me like they are looking for a Brantley type, old guy that can still hit. It would signal Yordan playing full time, but adding an extra potential 800+ OPS guy to the lineup would be worth it IMO.
