Not sure what kind of deal but predictions were $200 million plus. And with so many teams interested, does the Mets say f it and offer him significantly more than others to land him? Also they say he would like to play with another Japanese player(Mets Senga, Cubs Suzuki, Red Sox Yoshida and Dodgers Ohtani)but not a must since Yankees and Giants are in the running? Maybe Astros are 1 of the 2 mystery teams lol
I could be way off the mark but I do not see a great need for high impact prospects untill 26. In 25 Bregman will go and there is no replacing him from inside the system or out. We have been blessed to have him but in 25 the smart move is to bring up Dezenzo or Wagner at 3rd base and stay away from spending cash or prospects that will be sorely needed later.
Did I mention he has a low arm slot like Javier. So imagine Javier with a 96 mph fastball and Mike Scott style splitter instead of a slider. He also has thrown almost 140 pitches in a game. He's as much of a sure thing as there is as long as his small body holds up.
I can’t see any scenario other than the dodgers and maybe Yankees for him. It was a done deal to the dodgers once Ohtani was official in my opinion.
apparently his cutter is near Corbin burnes quality and his curve ball is top end pitch as well. Yamamoto has all the pitches to be a great mlb pitcher.
Looking at fangraphs projections, top 5 upside plays on Houston’s roster: 1. CF Jake Meyers: projected for 1.1 fwar over 399 pa, he has put up 3.1 fwar over 664 pa in his career. Theres reasonable optimism for him to not only replicate his past performance, but improve thru staying healthy, playing consistently, and improving thru experience/development. A 2 win season seems like a forgone conclusion if he stays healthy, and a 3.5 win season would not shock me. 2. SP Cristian Javier: projected for 1.4 fwar over 162 ip, he already has a 3.3 fwar season on his resume. Projections have consistently underrated him since his debut. A 2 win season seems like a forgone conclusion if he stays healthy, and a 3.5 win season would not shock me. 3/4. RP Dylan Coleman and RP Forrest Whitley: a couple of elite velocity pitchers whose stock is low and are projected for replacement level seasons. Both have shown flashes of dominance and with just 75th percentile luck should be valuable high leverage relievers in the 1-1.5 fwar range. For now I am pencilling in Coleman and Whitley to replace Stanek and Maton in the bullpen in terms of roles, but it is possible one of them emerges to take Neris’s 7/8 role (although I still expect Houston to make a move there). 5. SP Hunter Brown: his projection is not all that light, tagging him for 2.4 fwar over 149 ip, and that is probably very close to his most likely outcome. However, I think Brown’s ceiling is extremely high and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that he makes a huge jump into ace territory with a >4 fwar season; not likely, but possible. Looking for downside, except for potential injuries, I don’t see much. Factoring in injuries, Alvarez is always ripe to undershoot his monstrous projections.
A lot of reports lately have indicated he'll likely get right around $300 million if not more. And will likely get a 10-year deal. Really never before has an elite 25-year-old pitcher hit FA so this will be an extremely unique situation and contract. And by all reports he should be a top 10 pitcher in MLB from the time he first toes the rubber. Might have a bit of an adjustment period like Senga did last season, but he's in a tier well above Senga. And Senga put together a damn good first year.
On Meyers, he's a platoon starter, or at least he should be. He should start every single game against LHP, and occasionally against a RHP if everybody is healthy (or in game scenarios that call for your rangiest OF). I know his raw value suggests he can be an everyday player, but I would imagine most of his net positive come from his results against LHP. He has not demonstrated nearly enough to justify 400 PA against RHP to this point. Dusty, as he did so many times, refused to play simple matchups correctly and Meyers frequently missed out on games where he would have been a valuable option. He only had 79 PA against lefties, and he should have been up around or over 200. I don't think Meyers would be a terrible option as your everyday CF, but I think you should try to do better than penciling him in for 600 PA, and I've always been a big supporter of his. As roster depth for an injury to a starter he's an outstanding option because he will always provide some value even if he's not hitting much.
I think against lefties he’s a star level player but against righties he’s an average everyday player. 2023 was the only time he’s been bad against righties. His 78 wRC+ against RHP last season is bad, but paired with his elite defense still makes him playable, in line with somebody like Myles Straw, Travis Jankowski, or Michael Taylor. But I still think he can post something like 120 wRC+ against lefties and a 95 against righties, which would likely make him a 2.5-3.5 win player.
I think Meyers has a chance to be good enough vs RHP to justify him starting 60 games there based on the current roster. Other than Yordan there simply isn't a 3rd OF behind Tucker and Chas who projects to be better. Dubon is just as bad vs RHP and has less defensive, baserunning, and power value. And Yordan needs to be kept to 40-55 games in the OF at the most. Jake did have a 114 wRC+ vs RHP 4/1-6/10 last year in 45g and 140PA. That's over 1/3 of the season. (117 in 173PA overall) I agree there is risk, maybe substantial risk that he doesn't hit, but there is also opportunity for him to have a Chas-like breakout. What I would do if the Astros don't acquire another OF who hits RHP better: A season typically has approx 50 games started by LHP and 112 started by RHP (25 and 56 in half) In the first half, start Chas-Meyers in all LHP games. Start Yordan-Chas in 25g started by RHP (50 pace for Yordan) and Chas-Meyers the other 31. If by then, Meyers is not hitting well enough vs RHP then bring up Loperfido, Barber, Corona, Leon, or Dirden (or another surprise player who is doing well- Wagner may be able to play LF?) Based on whichever IS doing best. Then platoon the rest of the season or until a deadline deal can be made.
Nothing Whitley has shown in the last 5 years gives me any optimism. He's just so F'ing hittable for someone throwing as hard as he does. He's a human batting cage.
I just don't see a Chas like breakout. Chas was elite against fastballs and left handed hitters since he was called up. He just had a gaping hole against sliders from Right handers. He literally only had to fix one thing. Meyers isn't elite at anything. He's a little above average against lefties and terrible against righties. He hasn't shown the ability to hit the snot out of the ball since his first month in the big leagues. At this point, I attribute his few months of power an extended hot streak like Pena's 2022 playoff run. My hope is Meyers is an average hitter that isn't embarrassing in the 8th or 9th hole, gets on base at a decent clip, so he can scores some runs with his speed and Altuve hitting behind him.
He hasn’t been healthy enough or pitched with nearly enough frequency to draw conclusions about how he might fare if he stays healthy. The last 5 years the vast majority of his few, infrequent innings have come when he was either rehabbing from injury, just coming back after rehabbing, or pitching hurt. His last “healthy” season was in 2017 when he dominated 3 levels as a 19 year old. Obviously at this point betting on him to get hurt comes with pretty good odds. But if he is healthy who knows how good he will actually be.
Let me clarify that I am not predicting this or expecting it. I simply feel there is still a chance. I'm sorry you don't have hope. It's sad when a player finally causes us to lose that. I hope you are wrong. As for a reason for optimism, that was in my post. 114 wRC+ over 45g and 140PA. Because of his defense, Jake only needs about a 90 wRC+ to be a good player in this league. 3 straight months 4/1-6/30 = 98 wRC+ I feel that Dusty hurt him as much as anyone last year. 1) benched him in favor of Dubon 7/31 for rest of season 2) did not play him in best games to succeed. During his hot streak 4/1-6/10 the Astros played 63 games and he started 44 of them. He started 35 of 46 vs RHP (80%) He started 9 of 17 vs LHP (53%) For such a smart and experienced baseball man, Dusty did some really stupid things (I know we have already been down that road) FYI: 5 of the 8 games vs LHP that Meyers sat, Julks started (1 @ DH w/ Yordan in LF) and he was 89 wRC+ during that time. Hensley (DH), Bregman (DH) and Dubon started the other 3.
The 2019 Nationals? Yeah, I made a tiny fortune betting on them winning the World Series.... their pitching was just that good. The 2021 Braves? They lost in the NLCS in 2020 and in 2021 their pyth number was like 95 wins.... so they were not as good as the Astros of Dodgers, but they were real contenders IMO. No - I did not see the 2023 Diamondbacks as real title contenders.... it happens sometimes, but not that often.
That isn't going to happen. If for some reason the Astros are bad this season, like under .500% - then I could see them re-evaluate and decide whether to cash their chips in or not. What is more likely is that they keep both players - and hope to make a shrewd signing and have someone like Arrighetti or Gordon exceed expectations and become a viable #2 starter.
The ideal situation is to have an in house replacement, and that might be the way we go. However, there are other ways to do it too - look at Dana Brown's old team, they traded for players and signed free agents to fill holes and it has worked well.
I feel Meyers has value. I've said it many times that he just needs to be average with a bat because he's way above average fielding at the second hardest position. I just don't see him being what Chas was last season which was an all-star level hitter. He hit as well as Tucker last season and Tucker got MVP votes and was a silver slugger. I don't even know if Chas will hit as well as he did last season.
