You made so many comparisons of Jalen to the "average NBA player" but did you consider what is the age of the average NBA player? https://www.nba.com/news/nba-roster-survey-facts-to-know-for-the-2023-24-season The average age of the NBa player is 26 or 5 yrs older than Jalen. Why are you using 26 yr old standard on a 21 yr old dude? Don't you think a 21 yr old performing at "average" level for 26 yr old is reason for optimism? 26 is the prime for a lot of NBA players you got a fledgling already performing at prime of a normal NBA player. That's why the OP used 3rd year star guards to compare to Jalen and that's the whole point of his post. Jesus. But then again asking someone to do mid range I guess I'm not surprised at the misuse of stats.
He still showed you. When he busts you can talk all the crap you want but right now he has clowned you so better stay in your lane.
I contend that The blocks and him not being more efficient in the paint is due to his lack of size and physicality. And not all is on him. We saw last game when FVV was out how he was able to take over a quarter with ISOs or dribble drive playmaking. The new system has limited his opportunities since it’s heavy 2 man high screen and roll with FVV and Sengun or Sengun in the post. It’s up to both him and Udoka to figure out how to make it easier for him or give him more opportunities to score. One big weakness I see with Green other than physicality is poise and composure under pressure. Has problem with traps. But this is experience. He has looked better every year so let’s see how he pans out. Again it’s a process. Guys like Booker Fox or Dame weren’t always great and even those players have flaws today.
My theory about Green's TS% is that he goes to the basket more than those other guys. I'm interested to see how his (1) percentage of at rim shots over all his shots (.202) (2) FG% of at rim shots (.735) (3) FTA (5.4) compared to those other guys.
Fantastic post. There is only one real problem with Jalen and it has been there since high school. He has a very low basketball iq.
One thing to note and little baffling is Green’s minutes per game has decreased this year to 31.9 a game, which is same as his rookie year. The top Guards in the league are all playing 34 minutes and up. Udoka’s usage of him has been very sporadic. This may also explain the dip in scoring per game (2.5 pts).
Most of the games he has shot well in have lined up the same games that have been blowouts as well. Either huge lead or down by a lot and has sat at the end of games where he was on the bench.
Really don’t get where people get the 3rd year leap from. Players improve every year. Players like Dame Fox and Booker had their struggles as well during their 3rd year and Jalen’s numbers aren’t too far from them. Even Lebron added levels to his game training with Hakeem in 2011 or Kobe stepping his strength and conditioning regimen after winning back to back titles. Players continue to evolve in this league.
One thing I think this list kind of shows is a narrowing in his range of outcomes. He isn't necessarily a bust, but it's looking less likely that he'll become a superstar IMO. None of the guys who were around his level or worse have ever been top 10 players in the NBA in my opinion, All-NBA selections notwithstanding (those are too influenced by team W/L record). Right now I would peg his possibilities as falling somewhere between quality 6th man and good all-star/borderline All-NBA player. With his median/realistic outcome probably being a fringey all-star around the level of a Zach LaVine.
Has @JCDenton weighed in on this yet? He’s the bonafied stats man of Clutchfans. Sometimes you need an experts opinion for clarity. And graphs.
Where were Fox Book or Dame at their 3rd year? Were fans and media proclaiming Fox or Booker great in their 3rd years? Dame shot .434 avg 21ppg his 3rd year. Oh btw this year is only 16 games in. Let’s not over react or speak in hyperbole. Players aren’t great overnight.
The "third-year leap" is the old holdover of drafting 22-year-old seniors. GMs have told owners for years that once a player spends three years in and around the league, you have a pretty good idea of what a player's ceiling will be. At age 25, you can see athletically what a guy can become. Of course, Kentucky, Duke, and Kansas would have killed to have a Jalen Green filling up 28 minutes a game in college. He would look fantastic against smaller amateurs and with a shorter 3-point line. But Jalen took his express pass at age 18, jumped feet first into pro leagues, and everything that goes with that. We're now in year three with a talented 21-year-old. He handles the ball like you would expect a junior in college to do. He shows flashes of taking over games and making 6 or 7 in a row. With his athleticism, I thought he'd have a bigger impact on the defensive end. But he's finally getting the coaching and system to make specific asks of him on that end of the court. And physically, it should be two or three years before we see what he's got. The rush to judgment is so rash; it reeks of fan boredom between games. Jalen needs to stay hungry and continue to work on everything (including faster in-game decision-making).
Booker and Fox were both noticeably better in their third year. But you're right, the sample size is too small and Jalen could improve his numbers over the course of the season. I'm not entirely ruling out him becoming a superstar, I just think the odds have gotten lower. (They weren't amazing to begin with--becoming a true superstar is a rare outcome even for high picks.)
I dunno about that bro. No one was talking about Book or Fox being great back in those days and they got that borderline star treatment as I recall. But it’s a matter of perception. I remembered Fox just being an athletic guy that can get to the paint but turn the ball over a lot and a poor 3 pt and FT shooter. He’s improved a lot in these areas making him one of the best guards in the league today in year 7.
Absolutely, there will likely be improvement from Jalen. I don't know if his intangibles are sky-high, but he doesn't seem like a Jordan Poole either. So as long as he stays healthy he will get better. I just think if you go to the numbers, Booker and Fox were a step ahead in their third seasons. But again, like you said, the book is not closed on Jalen's third year by any means. Plenty of games left to play. He could catch up. Edit: One thing to keep in mind is that the scoring environment has gotten even higher in the past few seasons. So consider that when comping Jalen to older players, even guys just four or five years his senior.
You really trying to take a victory lap because he's been a bit better than what was posed as a worst case scenario? Lol, yikes.
