It feels like Texas' most realistic way in is for FSU to **** the bed. I just can't see the winners of the PAC or SEC getting left out at this point. If Bama beats Georgia or Iowa beats Michigan **** is gonna get real awkward real fast.
It seemed like it would be more complicated a few weeks ago but it seems to break down pretty similarly now. it’s either Alabama/Georgia Florida St/Texas Michigan Wash/Oregon with Texas and Florida st obviously playing different teams but they are competing for the same spot. what would really really suck is UT winning, FSU losing, Alabama winning and Georgia getting the 4th seed.
FSU losing is our only realistic path. It's clear the committee thinks that Oregon - a team with one top-25 win who beat up on a bunch of bad, depleted teams - deserves to be ranked higher than Texas (and Ohio State lol). We played a common opponent (Texas Tech) and we beat them by 42 more points than Oregon. It's a joke and it feels like Texas is being punished for having an injured starting QB in the middle of the season.
Blowing multiple 20+ leads following OU really hurt us. Through the entirety of the season, Oregon has looked like the better team and hard to argue they are not a top 4 team. That being said, teams should just cancel future big non-conference games. Especially with the CFP expanding, the UT/Bama game shows there is no really benefit in it.
But therein lies a bit of a double standard (and the entire process dating back to the BCS is an exercise in double standards): three of our worst games this season can be traced directly to backup and/or injured QB play: Quinn got hurt against UH and Maalik had to come in we he wasn't planning on playing. Maalik was bad against Kansas State. He couldn't hit an open receiver to save his life in the second half and his poor play directly contributed to their comeback. Quinn came back against TCU but was clearly not 100%. He's been much better in subsequent weeks. Florida State is on the cusp of pulling a Cardale Jones and going undefeated with a backup QB for their last two (and potentially four) games. The Seminoles barely had 200 yards of total offense against the 69th-ranked Florida defense with a backup QB playing. Should they also be punished because they "won ugly" against a bad Florida team with a second-string quarterback? I don't think so and it's unfortunate that our worst stretch of the season coincided with Oregon beating some bad teams. At the end of the day, we're both 11-1 going into conference championships. Texas beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa and Oregon doesn't have anything close to that on their resume. We share a common data point against Texas Tech and we were 50 points better than Oregon against that shared opponent. Completely agree. If winning in a place that almost nobody wins in doesn't count more than beating up on lackluster Pac-12 schools than there's no point in even trying.
Funny thing is that the committee says they take injuries into account. If that is true and their ultimate task is to select the 4 best teams, FSU is the 8th ranked team behind UT, Bama and Ohio State IMO. However I cannot justify leaving an undefeated P5 conference champ out which basically tells you that the entire regular season didn't mean squat. If UT is gonna get screwed (which I am expecting at this point), I hope Bama beats Georgia just for the maximum chaos.
Of course there's a benefit. If Texas went 11-1 without playing Alabama, they wouldn't get in under any circumstance - they'd be behind several more teams. The only reason they are even in the discussion if FSU loses is because of the Alabama win. Not too mention the boost in recruiting and national profile, etc. The bigger issue for UT is looking mediocre against mediocre opponents and giving up the last drive against a 2-loss OU team in a game they had won.
One random non-conference opponents that two teams played months apart is not going to impact the committee much when there are 12 games. But beyond that, Oregon is a non-issue. If they win the Pac12, they'll have a win similar to Alabama. If they don't, they won't be in the discussion. Not sure why people are focusing so much on them. They aren't standing in Texas' path - it's really just about FSU.
People are focusing on Oregon because they've consistently been ranked higher than Texas despite having a weaker schedule and no top tier wins. Potentially beating Washington on a neutral field is not comparable to beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa. At the end of the day, Texas has a worse loss than Oregon, but a better win. As @gucci888 said, what's the point of scheduling tough out of conference games if they're not going to be a differentiating factor? I agree that FSU is the main piece to all of this. Unlike Oregon, they're undefeated so I have no issue with them outranking Texas until they lose.
Except, again, it IS a differentiating factor. If they didn't beat Alabama, Texas wouldn't even be in the discussion. But that doesn't mean it's the ONLY factor - the other 12 games matter too. Without Alabama, Texas' best win would be what, an overtime win over K-State? The Pac12 is considered a way better conference than the B12 this year, and Oregon has dominated it far more than Texas has the B12. Oregon has wins over Utah, Oregon State, and USC, all of whom people probably think are better than most of the B12 - and they dominated 2 of them. Our championship opponent lost 33-7, at home, to South Alabama and had a late season 45-3 loss to a bad UCF team. And still managed to beat the OU team we lost to.
I probably should have said the benefit does not outweigh the risk. Bama and Oregon are good examples of this. Had Bama played UTEP instead, they would be in regardless of what happens on Saturday IMO. Oregon on the other hand is basically a shoe in despite playing a much inferior non-conference schedule. But that’s why I qualified it with the expanded playoff. With a full SEC schedule, a 2-loss conference schedule probably gets you in. A 3rd loss could very well keep you out. Maybe it helps with seeding but the committee seemingly favors style points.
FSU should get knocked out even if they win. They're a completely different team without their QB. Not in any particular order but the 4 teams should be: 1. Michigan 2. Winner of SEC Championship game 3. Winner of Pac 12 Championship game 4. UT if(when) they beat OSU. 5. FSU if UT loses Unfortunately this committee consists of 3 big ten members, 4 ACC members. The others went to smaller schools primarily in ACC/Big 10 country (Virginia/Ohio). There is only 1 rep for the Big 12 and 1 for the SEC which probably explains why Oregon/Ohio state are ranked above Texas/Alabama. I just hope the committee learned their lesson last year and put the best teams in the playoff and not the most deserving.
After everyone has completely shat on Iowa this entire season, for very good reason....They're gonna beat Michigan, just to freak/piss everyone off.
How does a team go a decade or whatever it is without figuring out how to have a semi-competent offense? It seems crazy that it's so hard for them.
