What exactly should our expectations be this year?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2024.html

*Scroll down to Play by Play
*See On/Off per 100 possessions

 

Thanks for the explanation, @ApacheWarrior. I think you're making a mistake, but it's your call. If you ever change your mind, I'd welcome it.

 

Ah okay, thanks for the link. You are misinterpreting the second column - that is the NET on/off rating, in other words, how much better or worse is the net rating when this player is on the court. It's actually the exact opposite from your interpretation.

So to use Dillon Brooks for example, he is +13.5 on court and then +19.9 on/off NET. That means we are 19.9 points BETTER with him on the court, or in other words, the team net rating goes from +13.5 to -6.4 with him on the bench. Sengun is +10.3 and +11.1, meaning the team is -0.8 with him off the court. And then Jabari, as you brought up, is +4.5 on the court and -4.5 on/off NET, which means the team is actually +9.0 with him off the court. So the team gets better when he sits down.

 

For me I don't think the expectations should change from prior the season, cuz then we are moving the goal posts and if the Rockets fail this new expectation then people will be mad when the reality is the Rox actually over achieved their expectations.

The expectation is Rox should be fighting for a play in spot and I think that's a fair expectation, anything else is just a bonus. Yes the Rox just beat the champs but also it's early in the season, everyone is fresh and there no major Injuries. Later in the season it may be different.

 

?

 

Play-in is good for now, my friend. But I say why not more?

 

? I wasn't countering anything you said. I'm just providing a quick way for people to see the 0n/off

 

One context to be wary of for people reading this is net on-off numbers are affected by the competency of back-ups. The better a starter's backup, the worse the on-off. Although Jabari Smith hasn't been performing as well as the other 4 starters, but his back-ups have also been very good (Jeff Green most noticeably), which will give him a negative net on-off even though he is a positive oncourt.

 

Just ride the wave this year, hope for more positive things than negative.

 

I like looking at numbers but man if it doesn't match the eye test; there's likely some contexts missing.

Plus we know for sure in this winning streak, at times, FVV intentionally took a back seat for Sengun to playmake; so Alp had good assist numbers. Unselfish basketball all around.

Numbers are good to look at; just have to think about it with contexts.

 

What doesn't match the eye test?

 

KPJ to FVV. To put them in the same breath is almost an insult.

 

To be at least on PAR with Orlando Magic team or better make into playoffs

 

Get help.

 

Much respect to you Deckard.

I'm not going to post video after video, it's one and done. Just a sample behind
my frame of mind. After all it's just Sports Entertainment

 

minute 6 at the knicks game is some of the dumbest sh*t I have ever seen in my entire life. good f'ing grief.

 

Stats schmats ... just shoot the ball well and our defense will take care of the rest!!

 

FVV, Brooks, and Sengun are better than Smith. Those three guys are tied together, have performed great with the starting unit, but have played even better against 2nd units. The Landale-Smith frontcourt also has not worked. I'm pretty sure the Rockets have been better with Smith on the court and Landale off the court than the Rockets have been with Smith off the court (or at the very least, it is really close).

In other words, Smith is easily the worst starter so far this season, but not close to being a 9 point detriment to the team and that he's still a good rotational player.

 

Not a 9 point detriment, a 4.5 point detriment. They are +4.5 with him on and +9.0 with him off. And yeah, as with all stats there’s context. Jabari being +4.5 is still great though. That’s a good number!