Tennis for the most part has removed all judges except for the Chair Ump. All out calls are electronically generated. They used Rebel Wilson's voice for the calls at the Australian Open, and are thinking about using a sponsor's name this year instead of fault or out. at the US Open. could you imagine a ball going out and the phrase Ralph Lauren being the call. BTW tennis has a crap ton of close line calls.
There are about 60 pitches in the shadow of the zone a game that are called either a ball or a strike that are probably close enough to get challenged by one team or the other. It has been a long time since I've watched tennis, but that seems like a crap ton more close calls in baseball than tennis.
But not every call will get challenged if batters and pitchers have a finite amount. same rationale why every single close tag/catch/base call isn’t always reviewed.
Teams have a chance to look at the close plays currently reviewable before challenging and currently a replay ump is needed to check the call instead of a roboump. That would not be the case for strike zone as it would be too time consuming for the number of calls. I'd rather go with a system that the robo ump calls balls and strikes and they have 3 challenges for a replay ump to catch any glitches in the matrix. If you have a system and it is quick, use it. If you don't, don't use it. I don't want a game decided by Angel Hernandez just because a team ran out of challenges because there are lots of close ball and strikes calls. Unless each team is given something like 30 challenges each (or 15 challenges but they only lose a challenge if it is unsuccessful) some plate appearances are going to be decided by a robo ump and some are going to be decided by Angel.
But teams run out of challenges now with other calls... and they have to be subjected to Angel Hernandez literally not being able to see whether the runners foot beats the tag in the 8th inning Its always going to be about a balance between pace of the game... and getting every single call right. It still comes down to how fast this information can be "corrected". If there is always a slight delay, and every call is subject to correction (even the meaningless ones), I don't want 9-1 games taking another 5-10 minutes because there are still mm strike/ball discrepancies in the 8th inning that require a 10 second correction. I think the NBA system is an example of where they're trying to get every call right... but it disrupts the flow of the game (especially close games) in a very noticeable way.
Spoiler https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/st...n-predictions-preview-shohei-ohtani-juan-soto …If there is one thing to know about Shohei Ohtani's free agency, it's that you are unlikely to know much about it until he signs somewhere. If visits between Ohtani and a team are reported publicly, it will be held against the team, so the circles will be tiny and tight. The expectation among teams involved is that Ohtani could move relatively quickly -- perhaps even before the Dec. 4-7 winter meetings, according to sources. … Ohtani, according to multiple sources, has expressed affinity for certain teams and cities in the past. He deeply respects the Los Angeles Dodgers' winning ways, their ability to develop players and their progressive coaching approach. He appreciates the Texas Rangers -- not just for their 2023 World Series victory but the fact that early in his career, when he was playing in Japan, they expressed strong interest in him. He loves visiting Boston and has a fondness for Fenway Park. The Dodgers, Rangers and Boston Red Sox all are expected to be in the Ohtani sweepstakes, according to sources. And though the industry's overwhelming expectation is that he winds up with the Dodgers, that line of thinking is perhaps presumptive. The Dodgers do have advantages: financial, geographical, on-field success. They also have a history of signing large deals -- on their terms. And with Ohtani coming off an elbow-ligament surgery in October that will keep him from pitching in 2024 -- raising a legitimate question about what his future pitching looks like -- the prospect of plopping down a half-billion guaranteed goes against how they traditionally operate. Of course, perhaps Ohtani is as much of a mold-breaker for teams' thinking as he has been as a two-way star on the field. The Chicago Cubs never have spent more than $184 million on a player, but Ohtani is an exception. The San Francisco Giants topped out at $167 million, but may have to triple that for Ohtani. (They were willing to dole out $300 million-plus for Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last winter.) The Toronto Blue Jays, said a source with knowledge of their plans, "want to do something big" this winter. Ohtani fits, especially with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. due to hit free agency after the 2025 season. Ultimately, this will come down to Ohtani's priorities. If it's money he wants, nobody has more than New York Mets owner Steve Cohen. If it's resonance in Japan, no relationship between team and player matches that of the Seattle Mariners and Ichiro Suzuki (though the notion that the Mariners will pay top dollar for Ohtani simply is not real at the moment). And if it's comfort, he can just go back to the Angels, who gave him relative carte blanche the past six years. THE FREE AGENT PITCHING MARKET IS DEEP Everyone wants pitching this winter. Like, seriously, everyone. The St. Louis Cardinals want three starters. Boston is targeting a front-of-the-rotation type. The Baltimore Orioles could thin out their position-playing herd in a trade for a frontline starter. The Dodgers, even with a farm system loaded with arms, need to stabilize their rotation. The Atlanta Braves are targeting a long-term rotation solution with only Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder under contract beyond this year. The Arizona Diamondbacks want to add to Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. The Mets' rotation beyond Kodai Senga is all kinds of suspect. Beyond the teams you might have guessed, the Washington Nationals are hunting for pitching. So are the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates. That's not even considering the teams that could trade starters and turn around and sign replacements in free agency, like the Tampa Bay Rays and the Chicago White Sox, or those on the prowl for relief help (Rangers, Angels, Mets). Luckily, the strength of this free agent class -- and trade market -- is pitching and it starts with one ace who could sign a record-setting deal of his own. YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO If not for Ohtani's free agency, the arrival of Yoshinobu Yamamoto to MLB would headline the offseason. For the past three seasons, Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award, the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young. The only other player to win three straight Sawamuras was Masaichi Kaneda, widely regarded as the greatest pitcher in Nippon Professional Baseball history. The Emperor, as he was known, won an NPB record 400 games during his career from 1950 to 1969. Yamamoto's numbers are unrivaled. This year, he posted a 1.21 ERA for the Orix Buffaloes in 164 innings, striking out 169, walking 28 and allowing just two home runs. (NPB this year had a dead ball era-level 3.48 runs per game and a home run every 45.6 at-bats, compared to MLB's 4.62 runs and a homer every 28 at-bats.) … The market for him is sizzling as he awaits his official posting. (It is expected to happen this week, sources tell ESPN.) Just how high Yamamoto's number goes is unclear, but rare is the player similarly beloved by teams' evaluators and computer models. With those sorts, it tends to start at $200 million and work up. The two biggest pitching contracts ever belong to Gerrit Cole (eight years, $324 million) and Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245 million). The former has been a rousing success, the latter an unmitigated disaster. With the trajectory of the bidding and the teams involved -- the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, perhaps San Francisco and Toronto as well -- Yamamoto could find himself in their company, and the separator could be which team is willing to offer him big money and an opt-out clause to further leverage his age. Now here are the best free agent starters after Yamamoto, tiered accordingly: TIER 1: BLAKE SNELL, AARON NOLA, JORDAN MONTGOMERY TIER 2: EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ, SHOTA IMANAGA, SONNY GRAY TIER 3: LUCAS GIOLITO, MARCUS STROMAN, YARIEL RODRIGUEZ … Rodriguez is the best pitcher you don't know about. He spent 2020 to 2022 with the Chunichi Dragons as an ace reliever, and some teams believe he's best-suited for that role. Others see him as a starter, and if they are right, the 26-year-old Cuban's stuff could land him a $50 million-plus deal. Evaluators who have seen him throw since Chunichi released him from his contract say the 6-foot-1, 164-pound Rodriguez has an imposing presence. His fastball sits around 96 mph and touches 99, and his spin, which nears 2,600 RPMs, would place him above the 95th percentile in all of baseball. He's got a mighty slider, too, that spins around 2,900 RPMs, which would be among the 10 best in all of MLB. TIER 4: SETH LUGO, JACK FLAHERTY, CLAYTON KERSHAW TIER 5: MICHAEL LORENZEN, SEAN MANAEA, MICHAEL WACHA, KENTA MAEDA, NICK MARTINEZ, MIKE CLEVINGER, JAMES PAXTON, FRANKIE MONTAS, ALEX WOOD TIER 6: LANCE LYNN, HYUN-JIN RYU, WADE MILEY, LUIS SEVERINO, KYLE GIBSON, ERICK FEDDE, NAOYUKI UWASAWA, ERIC LAUER, TYLER MAHLE THE RELIEVER EVERYONE WANTS -- AND THE REST OF THE BULLPEN OPTIONS JOSH HADER The 29-year-old is so above and beyond the rest of the relievers in this class that he warrants his own category. After a nightmare 2022, he rebounded by posting a 1.28 ERA and striking out 85 in 56⅓ innings. Hader will be shooting for the Edwin Diaz deal, trying to become the game's second nine-figure closer. His fastball velocity ticked down to 96 this year -- still higher than it was at his performance peak -- but it remains an elite pitch, as does his slider. His walk rate jumped. And he's not striking out as many as he once did. But for teams like the Angels, Cubs, Yankees and Rangers, all of whom need bullpen help, he'd register as a significant upgrade. The rest of the reliever group includes: *Jordan Hicks: Teams believe there's plenty more to unlock with Hicks, and it is fueling a ripe market. He's the youngest domestic pitcher on the market, having just turned 27. His fastball sits at 100 mph and runs up to 104. Everything is there for greatness. Hicks just needs to find it. *Robert Stephenson: No reliever made himself more money this year than the 30-year-old Stephenson did after his trade to Tampa Bay. In 38⅓ innings with the Rays, he struck out 60 and walked eight. He should get three years at a strong annual rate. *Yuki Matsui: The best left-hander on the market, the 28-year-old Matsui posted a 1.42 ERA for Rakuten over the past three seasons. He is a plug-and-play closer or an elite seventh- or eighth-inning option for a team with one already. *Hector Neris: He opted out of a $8.5 million deal for this season and should get at least that for two years -- and potentially three if the lack of elite relievers juices the market. *David Robertson: While he struggled after a trade to Miami, the Robertson of the first half was All-Star caliber, and at 38, he's throwing harder than ever -- and with cut. He should get a hefty one-year deal. *Craig Kimbrel: Like Robertson, he didn't finish the season well. But Kimbrel can close, and he'll be a backup plan for those that whiff on Hader and Hicks. *Reynaldo Lopez: Since transitioning to relief full-time in 2021, Lopez has a 3.14 ERA in 189 innings with a 3.5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's not a closer. But he is a reliable late-inning arm whose K rate ticked up three per nine above his career average this year.
Spoiler THE FREE AGENT BATS ARE YIKES Let's be frank: This is not a good class of hitters. Cody Bellinger is clearly the top available choice, and before his return to form last season, he had spent the previous two years hitting .193/.256/.355 with 29 home runs and 104 RBIs in 900 plate appearances. Here are the top dozen hitters on the market: *Bellinger, CF/1B: Bellinger will easily crack $100 million this winter but even after his resurgent season, teams are expressing concern with how hard he hits the ball. His hard-hit rate was in the 10th percentile in MLB, his average exit velocity the 22nd. A .307/.356/.525 line and precipitous dip in strikeout rate in 2022 will mean Bellinger has a plethora of options he didn't have last offseason, but his financial ceiling might suffer because the expected numbers don't portend well and teams rely heavily on them in their assessments. *Matt Chapman, 3B: Chapman has the opposite problem. His hard-hit percentage was second in MLB behind Aaron Judge. Over the last five months of the season, though, he slashed .205/.298/.361 with 12 home runs in 467 plate appearances. The team that signs him will be betting on positive regression. *Jung-hoo Lee, CF: We're back to age. Lee is the most talented Korean position player to come to MLB since Shin-Soo Choo signed with Seattle in 2000, and he's just 25 years old. He hit over .300 in all seven of his seasons in the KBO, he doesn't strike out and even though he's coming off a fractured ankle, he should patrol center field wherever he lands. *Teoscar Hernández, OF: While Hernández's final numbers in 2023 didn't match his career marks, it's worth noting his home-road splits. At T-Mobile Park, the worst hitters' park in baseball, he slashed .217/.263/.380. On the road: .295/.344/.486. If history is any indication, the 31-year-old Hernández should be in line for a four-year deal. *Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF: Gurriel is like Hernández without quite the history of performance. He'll hit homers, play solid corner-outfield defense and walk sparingly. The relative lack of strikeouts is a plus in his favor. *Jeimer Candelario, 3B/1B: Candelario turns 30 the day after Thanksgiving, and between his ability to hit from both sides, career-best walk year and ability to play on the dirt, he's got a three-year deal coming his way. *Mitch Garver, C/DH: The 32-year-old Garver picked an excellent year to stay healthy. His 344 plate appearances were 15 shy of his career high, and he made the most of them, slugging .500. For a team that can use 50 games at catcher -- in other words, almost all 30 clubs -- he's an excellent option. *Jorge Soler, DH: Nobody will ever doubt Soler's ability to hit the ball very hard and very far. Teams in need of power will stack him against a cohort that includes Garver and the next three players in this group. *Rhys Hoskins, 1B: A consistent near 30-homer producer, Hoskins missed 2023 after tearing an ACL during spring training. Even so, teams believe in the bat enough that he should have no problem landing a multiyear deal -- or a hefty one-year pact that would allow him to hit free agency again in search of something more representative of his production. *J.D. Martinez, DH: At 36, Martinez isn't the high-on-base threat he once was. The power remains, though, with 33 home runs and 103 RBIs in 479 plate appearances for the Dodgers this year. The team that signs Martinez knows it can plug him in the middle of the order on Opening Day and rest easy. *Justin Turner, 3B/DH: Speaking of professional hitters, Turner went to Boston for a season and did what he's done now for almost a decade. The swing and miss ticked up a touch, but Turner remains one of the best bat-to-ball guys in the game. *Tim Anderson, SS/2B: Once upon a time Anderson looked like a nine-figure guy. His disastrous 2023 -- .245/.286/.296 with one home run in 524 plate appearances -- left him not only willing to come off shortstop, but as the best candidate for a one-year deal to rebuild his value. Others available expected to draw interest include: *First base: Brandon Belt *Utilityman: Adam Frazier, Enrique Hernandez, Whit Merrifield, Amed Rosario *Outfield: Harrison Bader, Michael Brantley, Adam Duvall, Jason Heyward, Kevin Kiermaier, Joc Pederson, Tommy Pham, Hunter Renfroe, Michael A. Taylor THE TRADE MARKET COULD SHAKE UP THE OFFSEASON That weak group of free agent hitters doesn't mean we won't see another big bat change teams this winter though, with a San Diego slugger highlighting the group of players who could be on the move via trade. JUAN SOTO There is a reason the entire industry believes the San Diego Padres will trade Soto, their star 25-year-old outfielder this winter, and it is rooted in the belief that the Padres need to trim their payroll from $253 million last year to $200 million this season. The team has not acknowledged this publicly, but taking out a $50 million loan to cover payroll in September did little to discourage the idea. Currently, the Padres' payroll for 2024, with estimates on arbitration-eligible players such as Soto, is around $191 million, according to Baseball Prospectus. That covers nine players under long-term contracts, six in arbitration and 11 who can be paid at or near the league minimum. The problem is that Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez, Luis Garcia and Josh Hader -- all free agents -- accounted for 687 of the 1,441 innings Padres pitchers threw last season. Perhaps some of that can be handled internally, but not 47.7% of their total innings. Replacing them and remaining competitive will take free agent dollars, and a lot more than $9 million. Shedding salary, then, is a must. Except there's a slight problem, and it can be seen in the deals of each player San Diego has locked up: *Manny Machado: 10 years, $327 million, full no-trade clause *Fernando Tatis Jr.: 11 years, $317 million, full no-trade clause *Xander Bogaerts: 10 years, $250 million, full no-trade clause *Jake Cronenworth: seven years, $80 million, limited no-trade clause * Joe Musgrove: four years, $80 million, full no-trade clause through 2026 *Yu Darvish: five years, $78 million, full no-trade clause *Robert Suarez: four years, $36 million *Ha-Seong Kim: one year, $7 million *Matt Carpenter: one year, $5.5 million For the tl;dr crowd: The Padres' three megadeals all would require player approval to be moved, as would their only two clear starters. Cronenworth, Suarez and Carpenter's deals are messes that no one wants, and Kim barely makes a dent in the budget. So, yeah. Unless the Padres can get incredibly creative -- and, admittedly, if there's anyone who has shown the ability to get creative, it's San Diego GM A.J. Preller -- the writing is on the wall. It's possible they could weasel out of a big deal by attaching elite prospects, but doing so would wound their future and thin out a farm system that's already top-heavy. The only logical end point to all this is moving Soto, who's expected to make around $33 million in his final year of arbitration. Now, logic doesn't always prevail. And it would be an awful look for the team to give up a prospect of James Wood's caliber -- not to mention C.J. Abrams, Mackenzie Gore, Robert Hassell and Jarlin Susana -- only to turn around after a season and a half and punt. But it's a sound enough perspective for the Padres to have internally discussed their options if they do move Soto, sources told ESPN. The obvious focus is on acquiring near-major league-ready starting pitching, sources said. And teams rich in that include the Yankees (Clarke Schmidt, Drew Thorpe, Chase Hampton), Cubs (Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski) and Mariners (Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock). Chicago almost certainly won't move Cade Horton, and Seattle will hesitate to move Woo or Bryce Miller, with George Kirby and Logan Gilbert strictly off-limits for what amounts to a rental player. Of course, it's Juan Soto, one of the best hitters in baseball, the man for whom Preller mortgaged his farm system. So if he does in fact move, the return assuredly won't be piddling.
Spoiler THE NON-SOTO TRADE DIVISION Even with the lengthy list of free agent starting pitchers available, there is an attractive group of starting pitchers who could be had in trades this winter. The candidates are relatively clear. Tampa Bay is widely expected to move Tyler Glasnow and his $25 million salary. The White Sox will entertain entreaties on Dylan Cease. Same for Cleveland and Shane Bieber. Here are some of other potential trade candidates percolating in the wake of the GM meetings include: *Pete Alonso: Alonso has expressed interest in hammering out a contract extension with the Mets. But he wants big money -- much bigger than the top first-base contracts doled out in recent years -- and, accordingly, the Mets are willing to listen to other teams. They are not chasing a trade. Unless contract talks fall apart, they're unlikely to pursue one. But if a motivated team approaches the Mets, new president of baseball operations David Stearns will hear them out. *Isaac Paredes and Brandon Lowe: The Rays are inveterate needle-threaders, always trying to balance the present with the future, the young with the not-quite-as-young. And with a farm system that keeps churning out quality bats, they've got an infield glut that could be alleviated by moving Paredes (who would fetch a big return) or Lowe (who's under contract for one year with two club option years on top of it). What makes the Rays so good is their ability to churn talent, and moving a bat would qualify. *Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames: Here's the thing about Milwaukee potentially dealing its ace and shortstop. The Brewers just lost their manager to their hated rival. What sort of message does it send to fans if they actively ship their best players out, too? Business in a small market is different, and perhaps that's the cost of doing it. But the Brewers are good. They won the NL Central this year. They can win it again next year, especially with Jackson Chourio, Tyler Black and Jacob Misiorowski arriving soon. If the Brewers falter, Burnes and Adames can make Milwaukee the belle of the ball at the trade deadline. Other teams aren't convinced a huge sale is coming. *Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco: Both are free agents after this season, and with Minnesota's concerns over the collapse of the Bally regional sports networks and what that will mean for their revenue, the Twins are expected to shed payroll this winter after winning the AL Central. *Cease -- and every White Sox player, really: New GM Chris Getz has let teams know Chicago is open for business. One look at the White Sox's roster suggests that this is a team ripe for a teardown. If Cease or outfielder Luis Robert goes, there's really no reason not to besides owner Jerry Reinsdorf holding onto the idea that the White Sox can be competitive, which, barring a flurry of additions, won't be the case. *Anthony Santander: The Orioles have some serious problems. Beyond its infield glut, Baltimore has too many outfielders, too. And with Santander set to make around $12 million in his final arbitration season, he could move for young pitching and the Orioles could settle on an Austin Hays-Cedric Mullins-Colton Cowser-or-Heston Kjerstad outfield. *Alex Lange, Tyler Holton and Jason Foley: The trio of Tigers relievers was excellent last year -- and none is yet arbitration eligible. Teams will pay for pre-arbitration bullpen help, and if it can net Detroit a starting pitcher, second baseman or third baseman, a team with Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson and slugging prospect Colt Keith on the doorstep becomes that much more interesting. *Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman: St. Louis has told other teams it doesn't plan on moving outfielders Jordan Walker or Lars Nootbaar but others will be in play. The likeliest candidate, teams believe, is O'Neill, who's a year from free agency and clashed with manager Oli Marmol this year. Another option: Carlson, a good buy-low candidate. And Edman, a super utilityman who can play shortstop, would have the most value of the three. *Scott Barlow: San Diego is actively trying to move Barlow ahead of the Friday non-tender deadline. While he was very good in 25 appearances for the Padres after his trade from Kansas City, Barlow's stuff has regressed, and the estimated $6 million he is owed in arbitration could be prohibitive. *Alex Verdugo and Gleyber Torres: Do not believe the rumored Verdugo-for-Gleyber Torres nonsense. Even if the fits match, the likelihood of the Red Sox and Yankees pulling off a deal of substance is minuscule. That said, the industry believes Boston wants to move Verdugo, while a Torres trade doesn't align with New York's desire to improve its offense, he's a year from free agency and slated to make upward of $15 million in arbitration when the Yankees have Oswald Peraza champing at the bit for at-bats. *Jonathan India: With too many infielders to fill the four spots already -- Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand -- Cincinnati is suggesting to other teams India is the odd man out. Other teams believe it's more a matter of when, not if, India will move.
Seems like financial concerns on other teams means a big advantages for teams with payroll flexibility (whether legitimate or just from an owner willing to stretch). So many teams have TV revenue uncertainty. I think the Dodgers are going to dramatically improve this offseason. I will be very surprised if they don’t sign Ohtani and they will have a lot of payroll flexibility beyond that. Them getting both Ohtani and another big bat along with 2 ToR SP would not surprise me at all. Hopefully Crane sees something he likes and the Astros can be on the right side of the offseason.
Sorry, just saw this. There are not close to 60 calls a game that are currently reviewable that are within a couple inches with the difficulty of calling balls and strikes that one or the other team is unhappy with. On balance, if the system works, pace of play is not an issue. If the system delays the game, it isn't worth implementing. The challenges, if there is enough of them to make challenging balls and strikes not a skill that impacts games, will hurt the time even more. I don't want to create a skill in the game based on challenging balls and strikes. If you are, that is fine. I just don't see a way not to implement a challenge system that balances pace of play with getting calls correct that doesn't create that skill unless the robo umps call balls and strikes and the challenges let a human check the robo ump.
Likewise, not all of those 60 missed ball/strike calls impact the game significantly or that would automatically lead to a challenge. Again, I'm of the presumption that it won't be corrected within a second... and if "every" call that gets change requires the 3-5 seconds to verify, it adds up and the pace of play will be impacted.
Here is an idea, hypothetically of course If a team gets challenges, then how about 3 successful ones mandates the plate ump get replaced by one of the other ones?
RIP There were rumors that he was ill when the Padres went on thier recent logic defying spending spree. He was pushing in all the chips to try and get a title.
Makes sense... although you'd think some of the minority owners or other board members would try and limit some of that if they were truly "spending it all".... especially as they were having to take out loans to make payroll.
