This is a great and well thought out post. The only thing I would counter is that this team NEEDS another OF to hit vs RHP even if he is on the bench (though I prefer a platoon starter) In 2023 the Astros had only 6 hitters (5 starters) who were above league average offensively vs RHP. The other 7 were 85 wRC+ or worse. Diaz starting makes all 6 of them starters in 2024, but since 70% of the Astros games last year were vs RHSP and no reason they won't be again this year, that is alarming. That's 33% of the lineup. Even if Jose Abreu (81 wRC+) can hit more like he has in the past and did in 2nd half of 2023, projected starters Jeremy Pena (82) and Jake Meyers (78) have not given any reason to show they will improve and that leaves 2 big holes in the bottom of the lineup. Furthermore, because Jeremy and Jake are so good vs LHP, a player who is relegated to a strong side platoon can be targeted who will be cheaper. For example, guy like Mickey Moniak of the Angels: he is the mirror image of Meyers. He plays good defense ( fielding bible had him 10th in DRS out of 174 CF for context Meyers was 11th). Is great vs RHP (132 wRC+) buy awful vs LHP (45 wRC+). Because he is viewed as a platoon guy, not an everyday starter, Mike Trout and Jo Adell already on the team, and his lack of power for a corner spot, he should be available and affordable. He is currently listed as 2nd on the CF depth chart ahead of Adell, but got only 2 starts the final 3 weeks of the year while Adell started 6 of the final 10. The Angels have, arguably, a worse farm system than the Astros ( only 1 50 grade prospect and Astros have 4 ) and have several holes at the MLB level as well. I am pretty confident the Astros could send a couple of young guys like Grae Kessinger and Kenedy Corona with a lottery ticket like Jamie Melendez thrown in and get him. That's just about the top of my head. There are probably a dozen platoon only guys outbthere that are affordable and the Astros could target.
I'm not saying a top 10player but I think he hits for the avg he hit for last year and through experience he draws more walks. I also think if he catches 130 games he hits 30 home runs. I don't know where that places him in how players rank but it's a significant upgrade over what they got from Maldy last year.
I'm not saying a top 10player but I think he hits for the avg he hit for last year and through experience he draws more walks. I also think if he catches 130 games he hits 30 home runs. I don't know where that places him in how players rank but it's a significant upgrade over what they got from Maldy last year.
Having to take out a loan to make payroll is pretty damn serious. Wonder if there’s a trade match somewhere- especially if we can’t re-sign Tucker.
Kyle Tucker for Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Robbie Snelling, who says no? Padres shed salary without getting much worse, and actually get 2 years of Tucker for 1 year of Soto. Astros add a super duper star in Soto and a multiyear lefty platoon mate for Meyers in CF, plus an org top 5, borderline Top 100 prospect.
This is a great and well thought out post. The only thing I would counter is that this team NEEDS another OF to hit vs RHP even if he is on the bench (though I prefer a platoon starter) In 2023 the Astros had only 6 hitters who where above league average offensively vs RHP. Diaz starting makes all 6 of them starters in 2024, but since 70% of the Astros games last year were vs RHSP and no reason they won't be again this year, that is alarming. That's 33% of the lineup. Even if Jose Abreu (81 wRC+) can hit more like he has in the past and did in 2nd half of 2023, projected starters Jeremy Pena (82) and Jake Meyers (78) have not given any reason to show they will improve and that leaves 2 big holes in the bottom of the lineup. Furthermore, because Jeremy and Jake are so good vs LHP, a player who is relegated to a strong side platoon can be targeted who will be cheaper. For example, guy like Mickey Moniak of the Angels: he is the mirror image of Meyers. He plays good defense ( fielding bible had him 10th in DRS out of 174 CF for context Meyers was 11th). Is great vs RHP (132 wRC+) buy awful vs LHP (45 wRC+). Because he is viewed as a platoon guy, not an everyday starter, Mike Trout and Jo Adell already on the team, and his lack of power for a corner spot, he should be available and affordable. He is currently listed as 2nd on the CF depth chart ahead of Adell, but got only 2 starts the final 3 weeks of the year while Adell started 6 of the final 10. The Angels have, arguably, a worse farm system than the Astros ( only 1 50 grade prospect and Astros have 4 ) and have several holes at the MLB level as well. I am pretty confident the Astros could send a couple of young guys like Grae Kessinger and Kenedy Corona with a lottery ticket like Jamie Melendez thrown in and get him. That's just about the top of my head. There are probably a dozen platoon only guys outbthere that are affordable and the Astros could target. *After looking at baseballtradevalues.com (only for reference, their values should be taken with a huge grain of salt) I decided that Grae Kessinger and Jamie Melendez probably have even less value than I thought so the Astros would probably need to upgrade the offer but only slightly, 3 prospects from the Ast Maybe you are on to something butcapoarentlyvGrudham in a non tender candidate. He also is a reverse splits guy who was worse against RHP than Meyers last year.
Fully agree I think that is the type of guy we will go after and hopefully Brown finds the right one!
Moniak had less than 3% BB rate vs rhp and over 35% K rate. No way we want that guy. He got lucky in short sample size.
We can do all we want with the lineup. The postseason comes down to who has the two hottest starting pitchers. The regular season is about a complete team..unfortunately with the way MLB sets up the schedule in the postseason the things that make a team good in the regular season are not the same as what makes them good in the postseason. Find a way to have the top two starting pitchers and you will likely win each series in the postseason.
Astros gotta come back hungry next year they just didn’t have it hopefully they rest up and come back rejuvenated
I wonder how reactionary Jim Crane will be towards the Rangers winning the World Series. The Rangers winning is probably being celebrated heavily by the MLBPA. They went out and spent big money in FA the past couple years and as much as I hate to see it…. They got the job done and won a ring. I do believe that eventually- the Seager and Semien contracts will be a negative net value as their age and/or injury history catch up with them… but right now they don’t care about that. I anticipate Houston, Seattle, and Texas battling again next year for the division. Let the off-season officially begin
Will Smith is good luck charm. Go sign him if he's a free agent. Three straight World Series win(although not sure if he played in the playoffs for Houston).
Yep. what’s irritating is Dusty wasn’t ready to crown him a top 10 player on the Astros. I don’t believe I will ever get over that. But his stats when catching or playing first base are basically “better than Yordan Alvarez” and while that would be amazing I strongly suspect that’s not the case. I’m suspecting 800+ OPS, rooting for 900 ops and having a faint faint faint hope that he can actually be a 1000+ ops guy.
Yep. what’s irritating is Dusty wasn’t ready to crown him a top 10 player on the Astros. I don’t believe I will ever get over that. But his stats when catching or playing first base are basically “better than Yordan Alvarez” and while that would be amazing I strongly suspect that’s not the case. I’m suspecting 800+ OPS, rooting for 900 ops and having a faint faint faint hope that he can actually be a 1000+ ops guy. pretty clearly thats the best catcher in the league and a guy whose likely going to finish in the top 5 of the mvp race. You are basically talking about prime buster posey.
Yeah, I wouldn't frame Diaz's potential shortcoming, @The Beard, as "he doesn't walk." That's obviously a by-product - but the issue is that he's a free swinger with very little plate discipline. Altuve is, too - he rarely walked early in his career. But once his plate discipline improved (~'16), his career reached another level. (Also, I'm done trying to explain Altuve, lol, who defies, like, every rational analysis. The man makes no sense!) It's something teams can - and will - exploit. We saw the Twins and Rangers in the postseason both expand Diaz's zone and he was utterly helpless. But! There's no reason he can't make the necessary adjustments. And when he does - laying off balls he can't punish - teams will be forced to throw him pitches he can punish and then, look out! That's what makes Yordan so fricking dangerous: he doesn't chase, he can crush "good" misses, and he absolutely nukes mistakes. This is just the process of being great: you hit an inevitable wall and have to figure out a way over it. We don't know a lot about Diaz - but hopefully, he gets over it because he obviously has a tremendous bat.
Yeah. Fans should absolutely be excited about Diaz. But they need to, I think, be a bit more conservative with their expectations. He might hit 30 HRs! But playing everyday invites a host of issues he's never faced, and he's going to have make all sorts of adjustments. Also... if he does regress - even significantly.... a .725+ OPS would still be an upgrade over Maldy. It is not uncommon for first-year players to take a step back their second year.
This will be interesting to watch because you could conceivably argue this is the first offseason they've dealt with significant issues without ample help from within. (Last year may have actually been the first year - but a lot of it was covered in confetti and soaked in champagne.) How far is Crane willing to go to maintain/extend this window? Because they need help. I will be disappointed if their approach is: we'll add Chas and Diaz full-time and all out pitchers should be healthy. They need to get deeper and better up and down their roster.
I'm not sure the Padres would throw anything else into the mix - but I'd be VERY intrigued by a straight-up Tucker-for-Soto deal. And if you could squeeze another piece for that extra year for Tucker, I'd be even more intrigued.
