[2023 NFL Draft/1-2] C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Spoiler

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/in...ards-bryce-young-cj-stroud-anthony-richardson

C.J. Stroud is a cologne connoisseur. While talking to a reporter at his locker minutes after spraying the ball all over the NRG Stadium field for 384 yards in Week 2, Stroud -- who said he keeps 10 to 15 bottles in his rotation -- seemed to be trying to erase the scent of his Houston Texans' 31-20 loss to the visiting Indianapolis Colts earlier in the day.

When told he had begun his career with an NFL-record 80-plus passing attempts without an interception, Stroud, holding two cologne bottles in the same hand, was blunt: "Forget all that. I want a win." A week later, Stroud would get his win -- and another 280 passing yards -- at the Jacksonville Jaguars, giving way to a postgame scene that smelled a bit more like success.

Across the way back in Houston in Week 2, the victorious Colts could be found both celebrating and lamenting: Anthony Richardson had scored two early touchdowns before leaving the game with a concussion that also would keep him off the field in Week 3. The Colts are pumped about Richardson's development, with one team official telling ESPN after the Houston win that the coaching staff is "really, really pleased" with his progress. Indianapolis wide receiver Alec Pierce said the deep-ball possibilities with Richardson's arm feel just about endless.

This was an otherwise drab Colts-Texans matchup in late September. But the window into what the league's quarterback picture might look like with Stroud and Richardson in it deepened the intrigue.

Meanwhile, to the east, No. 1 overall draft pick Bryce Young is navigating an ankle injury amid the Panthers' 0-3 start. But the traits that sold Carolina on him -- from his mental aptitude to his off-schedule playmaking -- will play out over a full season, the team believes.

Now that 2023's trio of first-round quarterbacks have put reps on film, we reached out to several NFL execs and scouts to assess their performances. Yes, it's far too early to forecast their futures. The initial returns have shown some concerning elements that must be improved but also have given hope that the class can be a factor for many years.

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (No. 1 pick, Alabama)

What's worked: Despite the Panthers' 0-2 start with Young at QB, evaluators have seen him display attributes that helped him become the No. 1 overall pick. His pedestrian stat line of 299 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions on 42-of-71 passing doesn't tell the full story.

"You see intangibles come to the surface," an NFC exec said. "He's got a great feel for the game, and his quick release translates to the NFL game. His ability to throw off-platform will help him." The evaluator noted a 15-yard throw to DJ Chark Jr. in Week 2 versus the New Orleans Saints, with Young floating to his left and turning his hips quickly to deliver the ball between two defenders over the middle. These are the plays he can make -- with enough help around him.

What hasn't worked: Nearly everyone we consulted noted Carolina's uneven supporting cast on offense. The Panthers are not devoid of talent; free agent additions Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen, Hayden Hurst and Chark have plenty of pedigree (and helped backup Andy Dalton post 361 passing yards in Sunday's 37-27 loss to the Seattle Seahawks). But at least in Young's first two games, receivers weren't separating consistently, and the interior offensive line has struggled at times with starters Austin Corbett and Brady Christensen out.

"He has nowhere to throw the football," an NFL personnel official said. "He's got major leaks around him and is in for a long year if the things working against him don't get fixed."

Size and, by extension, durability will always be part of the conversation with the 5-foot-10, 194-pound Young, who suffered an ankle injury in Week 2. "He feels small when you watch him; it doesn't take much for him to go down," a high-ranking personnel man said.

What's been most surprising: Young's escapability hasn't shown up like some expected. Many evaluators figured Young's footwork, instincts and imagination inside and outside of the pocket could help offset the size concerns -- and maybe they will over the course of a 17-game season. But six sacks through two tilts isn't encouraging.

"Just because you're mobile at the college level doesn't mean you're mobile at NFL level," an NFC exec said. "[Young] can't turn the corner on a defensive end."

Early grade: C. It still feels like Young's game hasn't gotten off the ground. Most of those we surveyed remain faithful it will happen eventually. "Young is going through something he never has in his life -- losing," an AFC scout personnel evaluator said. "Love his demeanor, though. He'll be fine."


C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (No. 2 pick, Ohio State)

What's worked: Stroud was considered the most impressive among this rookie trio even before the Texans' Week 3 win over Jacksonville, which featured Stroud's 280 yards and two touchdowns on 20-of-30 passing. He has produced despite four backups playing along the depleted offensive line, becoming the first rookie in NFL history to attempt at least 120 passes without an interception in his first three starts. Warren Moon held the previous record with 103.

On the season, Stroud has completed 78 of 121 passes for 906 yards and four touchdowns with zero interceptions despite Houston averaging 70 rushing yards per game, 29th in the league.

"Excellent poise and throws the ball very well," said one high-ranking NFL official who watched Stroud live.

Stroud doesn't get rattled easily, which the Baltimore Ravens, Colts and Jaguars found out, as they combined to pressure him 56 times on 132 dropbacks (42.4%).

"Big upside. Already further along than I expected," an AFC exec said. "Pinpoint first- and second-level accuracy and shows anticipation flashes. Tough kid who takes hits and keeps on coming."

What hasn't worked: While Stroud hasn't shown many glaring weaknesses, one NFC exec believes he can be more decisive. "He probably holds the ball longer than he needs," the exec said. "He's getting guys open, so he can trust his reads and let it rip." That could contribute to the high pressure rate he faces. But after taking 11 sacks through the first two weeks, Stroud escaped the clutches of Jacksonville's pass-rushers in Week 3.

What's been most surprising: Unlike Young's supporting cast, Houston's playmakers have been a pleasant surprise. Third-round pick Tank Dell has juice. He'll be the Texans' No. 1 receiver soon enough. He and Stroud nearly connected on two touchdowns (one negated by penalty) in Week 2 then followed up with 145 yards and a score in Week 3. Wideout Nico Collins has been impressive, and veteran Robert Woods is the perfect complementary receiver for a young passer.

Early grade: A-. Hard to ask for much more production. Stroud looks poised to put to bed the stigma that Ohio State quarterbacks can't get it done in the league.


Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (No. 4 pick, Florida)

What's worked: Richardson has shown promise as a passer, completing 30 of 47 tosses for 279 yards and a touchdown with one interception through less than six quarters of play. Many scouts believed pre-draft that Richardson needed to sit a year, but the Colts have ignored that theory, clearly trusting Richardson with the ball in his hands.

Before leaving the Week 2 contest at Houston with a concussion, Richardson passed or rushed on nine of the team's first 11 offensive plays on the way to back-to-back touchdowns.

"He can really push the ball downfield; [he has a] plus arm," an NFL personnel director said. "And it looks like his decision-making is good. If you tailor the game around what he does, RPOs and the QB power game along with the big throws, which it looks like they are doing, it's scary to defend. And Indy as an offense is not far off."

What hasn't worked: NFL physicality exempts no player, so even 244-pound quarterbacks face durability concerns. The Colts must find a way to protect their prized quarterback, who in the first two weeks of the season banged his knee and suffered a concussion on separate red zone runs.

"He's as tough as they come, but he has to protect himself from himself," an AFC executive said. "He's going to end up taking shots like Cam Newton did due to his size and skill set. That could end up being bad if they don't help him with the running game. The offensive line also has been shaky at times."

Multiple execs also pointed out that Richardson is not quite polished yet in must-throw situations. But that's to be expected.

What's been most surprising: Decisiveness. If Richardson has a clear read, an AFC executive said, he is usually ripping it without hesitation.

"Their passing concepts are pretty simple right now, which is clearly to help him, but he's operating that well and seems to know what to do," the executive said. That can work against him on plays like his Week 1 interception, when he threw right to Jacksonville's Tyson Campbell, the Cover 2 corner sunk in man coverage.

"Defenses will throw complex stuff at him," the exec continued. "But from all that I've heard, he's been a fast learner there, so they can give him more."

Early grade: B. It's a little bit of an incomplete grade here due to injury. But Richardson has looked comfortable as a passer and on the move. He has a skillful offensive mind in head coach Shane Steichen to mold him.

 

C.J. Stroud: +310 (bet $10 to win $41 total)
Bijan Robinson: +320 (bet $10 to win $43 total)
Anthony Richardson: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Puka Nacua: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
De'Von Achane: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Jordan Addison: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Zay Flowers: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Jahmyr Gibbs: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Nathaniel Dell: +1900 (bet $10 to win $200 total)
Bryce Young: +3400 (bet $10 to win $350 total)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)