Jalen Green vs Ant Edwards - who will be the better combo/sg when all is said and done

Ant could be a top 20 player this year. Green hoping to be top 100. I don’t think it’s a year of experience at this point. Ant projects better.

 

Year experience + being okna team that's significantly better.

Narratives instantly flip for players as soon as their team crosses the .500 threshold.

In terms of production on the court, they've been near carbon copies the first two years of their career.

 

Its all about W's / playoffs when comparing young players who have with similar individual stats, Booker past 2-3 years (especially Finals trip) boosted him up significantly In rankings even though he had the talent/skill early on display (70 pt game) they just sucked as a team overall his first few seasons in

Ant being in playoffs/all star game and now on team USA gives him the slight edge as far as the media hype concern, but if you compare their stats head up first two years then its more close

 

I would say that gives him a massive edge in media perception. I don't agree with @Garner 's take on Green myself but I'll admit the national media sees the gap between them as if one is a top 20 player and the other isn't even top 100.

 

Yes, for now. In the medium to long term the Gobert trade will prove to be one of the dumbest moves ever.

 

How can you discount the third year? One year this early in a young player’s career is very significant. I already posted the data from both of the players’ year 2 and it’s very close. Everyone has a different opinion but the data portrays otherwise to the notion that Edwards is “better”.

 

Same with Fox. Ain’t nobody talked about Fox his first 5 years in the league. But then Kings all of a sudden became relevant and now the media is all on him.

 

Yeah, that's a very good example. Fox was very underappreciated for years.

 

Yeah, Edwards came into the league at around 225 pounds.….he is now
listed at 239 pounds (KAT is listed at 238 pounds)

Jalen Green was
172 pounds (21/22 rookie)
183 pounds (22/23)
195 pounds (23/24....supposedly according to Iko in that Athletic interview)

*I've noted MJ was about 198 entering the NBA (after 3 yrs of college)

_____________

Here are the stats in RA of Green (22/23) and Edwards (21/22):
[Green 34.2 mins.......Ant 34.3 mins] (per game)
Player...FGM...FGA...FG%....BlkA....FGM % Ast.....FGM % U Ast
Green.....213....386....55.2%...55............40.4%...............59.6%
Ant..........256...408.....62.7%...30............39.1%..............60.9%

Dunks
Player...FGM / FGA.....FG%.............PiTP
Green.......53 / 62........85.5%...........7.8 pts / gm
Ant............58 / 69.......84.1%...........10.4 pts / gm

__________________

Many here know I'm a big proponent of spacing. Spacing equates
to greater all around offensive efficiency.

Team most minutes on roster:
T-Wolves (21/22)............................Rockets (22/23)
KAT 41% (3P%) 5 (3PA)..................Jabari 31% (3P%) 5 (3PA)
D Russell 34% (3P%) 8 (3PA).........Kenyon 32% (3P%) 3 (3PA)
Beasley 38% (3P%) 8 (3PA)............Sengun 33% (3P%) 1 (3PA)
Vanderbilt 14% (3P%) 0.2 (3PA).....KPj 37% (3P%) 7 (3PA)

*Both KAT and Beasley help create space for driving lanes

*KPj is the only one that demanded respect from 3.....so basically you
could get away with Box & 1 defense when Jalen tried to drive.

Here is my famous graphics

.................................O (rim) .........................................
Kenyon...............X..................................X...............KPj (37%)
...................................................X
..........................................X
...........................X...Sengun................................Jabari

.......................Green *(ball)

Box&1 of course being everyone with foot outside the paint
and one (being the one) defending close to KPj
______________________


.................................O (rim) .........................................
Beasley....X.......................................X.................Russell
(38%)
..................................X
...........................X...Vanderbilt........................X........KAT (41%)

.......................Ant-man *(ball)

Advantage Ant-man with spacing and driving lanes

https://www.nba.com/player/1630162/anthony-edwards/
https://www.nba.com/player/1630224/jalen-green/

 

I also found Interesting numbers here:
Green had 262 FTA on drives. This is more than Fox, Booker, Trae, Kyrie, and Edwards. Only guards that went to line more on drives is Morant and Luka. This supports the eye test that Green gets fouled a lot going to the paint.

On ISO plays he had a Shooting Foul Freq of 14.6% and and1 freq of 4.5%.

Fox had SFF 14.7% and1 3.8%
Edwards SFF of 6.7% and1 freq of 1.4%.
Book SFF 13.7% and1 2.2%

For pick and rolls Green had
SFF 13.8% and and1 2.4%

Fox had 11.8% and 2.5%
Book 10.6% and 3.8%
Edwards 10% and 2.8%

Green’s numbers on drives, ISO’s and PNR shows he is getting into the paint, scoring, and getting a high rate of fouls compared to some of the best guards in the league. But his FG% is lower than most of these guards. His FG% on drives is at 44% compared to 50% and up for the elite guards including year 3 Edwards. His FG% on PNR is also lower. Size and strength can be attributed to the lower FG% on drives and PNR plays as the elite guards all play a more physical style using contact in the paint to score. But it may also have to do as you mentioned with teams camping in the paint waiting for the dribble drive with Houston inability to spread the floor.

 

His high foul rate on drives is probably a factor of two things.

Refs feel like there is more contact when high speed is involved and Green well... he a fast boy. The appearance of contact is more obvious.

Second, the Rockets have probably the worst interior spacing in the league. A very crowded paint..more opportunities to get hacked.

Actually there might be a third reason which is more of Green's fault also: he gets overzealous with his attempts at the rim thinking he could do some crazy triple clutch lay up on two defenders or something instead of doing a simple pass out. This leads to bad misses at the rim but also more contact and more foul opportunities.

 

Facts 101

 

You can start right here. Players Shooting Dashboard Closest Defender | Stats | NBA.com

 

I see Booker, LaVine, Beal, and Edwards more or less as straight line dunkers
or rim attackers. This is why I have them falling short of the MJ, Kobe
and Jalen Greens who are more flexible, change directions, contort
with greater ease. It's a factor that just clears the bar....to be better.

Jalen got no calls his rookie year.

Better in year two.

Green would excel this season and get more calls as the refs
feel players earn the right to more calls by year 3. Unfortunately
the Rockets brought in a 39% FG percentage players that
are paid to log in big minutes in VanVleet and Dillon Brooks.

Again the Box & 1 defense is how I would play the Rockets defensively.
Box defenders around the paint.....guard Jabari close
[ when VanVleet runs point ]

Slightly better odds when Green runs point to succeed. Which is why I hate
the VanVleet signing. Defeats the purpose.
___________________

.....................................O (rim)...........................................
Jabari........X...............................................X....... VanVleet (good corner 3-pt shot)
.....................................................X
...........................................X
...............................X....Sengun
...............................................................................Dillon Brooks

...............................*(ball)
........................Jalen Green


I'm on record not liking the free agent add-ons of VanVleet
and Dillon. Raptors tried playing VanVleet off ball to start the
season last year and VanVleet laid an egg. Now we are going to
use VanVleet in the same manner. Not good imo.

If the Rockets shoot well from 3.....Jalen Green would get my
Pre draft prediction of Jalen Green scoring around 28 to 30
points per game in his 3rd season.

.....................................O (rim)...........................................
Jabari........X..............................X.................Jalen Green

................................X (Sengun defender)
....................................................X (Dillon defender)

..............................X....Sengun
............................................................................Dillon Brooks

...............................*(ball)
........................VanVleet

X- make up box defenders

 

hes their because he is better….

 

….Edwards is a better player today. You’re hoping Green keeps pace/exceeds Ant at this point. House
Money on Ant.

 

I never said anything about hoping dude. That’s your assumption. I simply made the statement that you did not take into account Edwards’ third year.
when assessing or comparing players you need to take into account certain variables and circumstances including years of experience to have a more accurate outcome. And the numbers I presented shows that the 2 players were very close in their performance during their 2nd year.

 

if you feel that way that's all good, I was just giving a quick example of how situations with winning vs losing can put you in a higher position as was the case with Booker and others in the past who make playoffs early and show up, going back to Magic rookie year and even Dream who made Finals trip early in career, before he became that 94/95 monster version

Go compare their first two seasons numbers and then ask yourself who was better (more so offensively), defense side I would imagine Ant has the edge being built already like a shooting guard version of A Mason since day 1

NBA is fluid, 3 yrs from now you may be singing a diff tune..... or not, TBD

 

Sure, classic All Star on a bad team.

Fox is clutch but he wasn't as consistent as it should have been in the past.

Now he turned the corner the last years.