Adolis Garcia struck out 30% of the time as a 26 year old in AAA. Pedro Leon is striking out 28% of the time as a 25 year old in AAA. Garcia .250 iso to .220 for Leon. Garcia 4% walk rate. Leon 10% I think there is a pretty visible route for Leon to be a valuable major leaguer.
Yes, while the odds of Leon being a 3war/yr player may be extremely low, I feel like the odds of him being a 1-2.5war/yr player are pretty good. He’s not who we hoped he’d be when they signed him (which was a Mookie Betts level player), but he’s still a valuable prospect and a fine guy to have in the 6-15 range on your teams prospect list.
We can't forget (as I frequently do) that Leon was stunted by his defection, the pandemic, and 2 freakish (uncommon and not chronic in any way) injuries that cost him 2-3 years. He is basically a 25 year old with the experience level of a 23 year old. I love Leon and have been accused of being overly optimistic about him multiple times. He has cut his K rate another 1/2 a percent this season while slightly increasing his OPS his 2nd season in AAA. He may be on the cusp of a breakout.
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Solid day for Rafael Ramirez down in the Dominican Republic: he hit an RBI double in the first game of the Blue team's doubleheader and he's got a three-run home run (2) in the second game.
A couple of interesting performances in the DSL: Julio Marte 4 IP 3H 0R 0BB 5K. He's a 6'5" 180 lb 20 year old who now has 49Ks vs 12 BBs in 36 innings with a 1.25 ERA. Jesus Carrera went 5 IP 1 H 0R 0BB 4K. He's an 18 year old who was on the restricted list until early July, but has 27Ks to 6 walks (and 6 hits!) in 19 innings since then. Looks like the DSL regular season ends next Tuesday, and the DSL Astros have been unusually successful this year.
Honestly might not totally be a bad thing. If he had a season like that playing thru an injury then he could come back next season and play up to another level which would have him projecting as a potential everyday OF.
Another excellent appearance from Alex Santos II last night with 4 no-hit innings. He’s now up to 5 consecutive great outings, totaling 20.1ip, 5er, 31k, 9bb, 12h. Pretty clear he’s either figured something out or at least is in the best groove of his pro career. Worth noting he’s only 21, missed his sr year because of the pandemic, and is pitching in a big time hitters environment.
Dezenzo was 0-3 with 3k last night. He’s slumping pretty badly and will likely have to start back in Corpus again next season. Will Wagner hit 2 HR. He crushed it in April, then got hurt in May, and is now crushing it again now that he’s healthy. He may end up starting in AAA next year and will be a breakout candidate. Rhett Kouba had another great outing for the Hooks. He’s probably ready to join Arrighetti and Gordon in AAA.
Probably 2B, but he’s also viable at 3B and 1B as well and would probably be fine in LF, although he hasn’t played there. From what I’ve read/seen, he’s not especially good defensively but is good enough for it not to be a significant limitation. For now he projects as a really good bench bat 13th position player, but he could play himself into an everyday 2B or 3B role if he keeps hitting like he has this month (of course that would likely come with another team).
Should we just waive everyone in Sugar Land (minus the guys called up in the last month) other than maybe Whitcomb and Leon. seems brutal down there- anyone look like they might be a contributor or is that just a bunch of deadwood?
My $.02 on the current AAA roster: Legit prospects: Leon, Loperfido, Whitcomb, Hamilton, Arrighetti, Dubin, Gordon, Solis, Whitley; these guys all have potential to be quality MLB players, although the ceiling/risk profile varies. Viable MLB bench/RP players: Salazar, Julks, Bielak, Blanco, Gage, Martinez, Paredes; these are guys you keep on the 40 man until they’re out of options. Viable AAA bench/RP players: Berryhill, Matijevic, Madris, Costes, Dirden, Adolph, Hansen, Murray, Record, Ruppenthal, Tamarez; these guys could easily be released if there were more talent pushing them out. Release candidates: Bannon (only because he’s out of options next year), Machado, Cousins, Endersby, Kuhnel, McGowin; these guys are only in Sugar Land because the Astros upper minors is weaker than most. So yeah, half the roster could totally be dumped and replaced with independent league all stars next spring and not see a drop off.
What the heck happened to Endersby? Is Dirden really worse than Julks? Wow. I did not expect that considering Julks is terrible. I think of Dirden as a lefty version of Julks who can play all 3 OF positions but with the same 80-90 OPS+.
Julks hit in MLB how Dirden hits in AAA. And I don’t view Dirden as any better of a defensive player than Julks; Julks also has far more speed and baserunning ability. Julks hit 31 HR in AAA last year with a 21.7% k rate. Dirden has consistently struck out 28-29% of the time and has just 14 HR in 110 AAA games. Dirden somehow started getting hype based on 90 games in AA where his babip was almost .400. He is pretty much a non-prospect who might pan out into a fringey AAAA OF.
Fair enough. I just look at Julks baseball savant metrics and think - Dirden has to be better than this, right? To me Julks is pre-serum Steve Rogers at 5'4" and 120 lbs standing in a lineup of 6' tall, 200 lb guys. But I don't expect either to ever start 50+ games in an MLB season. . . Dusty.
