Pedro Leon (2 solos, 18) and Justin Dirden (10) both homered for Sugar Land. However, Brandon Bielak got smacked to the tune of 11 runs (10 earned) in 2.1 innings in El Paso.
Angel Macuare, Adrian Chaidez, and Aaron Brown turned in a shutout for Corpus. Macuare: 4 IP, 2 H, BB, 3 K Chaidez: IP, H, BB, K Brown: 4 IP, H, BB, 5 K Colin Barber scored on an error and Chad Stevens hit a solo homer (13) in the Hooks' 2-0 win over Frisco.
Zach Cole homered twice in the first game of Asheville's doubleheader. He now has 18 home runs between both A teams. Valente Bellozo walked one and struck out two over four no-hit innings, while Nolan DeVos allowed a solo homer and a double in his three innings.
Leon’s superstar ceiling is gone since it’s almost certain he will always strikeout quite a bit, but since June he’s resurrected his stock quite a bit but getting to a lot more power. He still has a very good chance to be major league contributor and an outside shot to be a Jose Siri level everyday player.
It is very reasonable to expect he will be in AA in a year - depending on how he ends this year, he could open in AA next year. He can play a corner outfield spot or first base most likely. Right now at least he moves well enough but he was definitely signed by the Astros for his hit tool.
Free Pedro Leon Dana! I've been wanting to see Leon in the big leagues, his tools and versatility give us some interesting bench options. He's getting hot at the right time.
In addition to starting the triple play, Will Wagner went 5-5 with a HR and a double. Too bad injuries pretty much made this a lost year for him.
Wow you are setting his ceiling at Jose Siri? That’s a bit shocking to me, but I respect your opinion. Do you watch a lot of minor league games or do you do your assessments off of stats and/or other trusted observers? I really enjoy your posts and am curious how you come up with your opinions.
The big dumb idiot manbaby electric car man changed the link, but Joey Loperfido is heading to Sugar Land.
Yeah was thinking more of a Teoscar Hernandez type of ceiling where he is above average for 2-3 seasons before falling off.
Which of those is the better ceiling? Leon has way better defensive potential than Hernandez. I think the primary thing is Leon is going to be a low average guy with pop and great defense.
I think Leon's ceiling has always been through the roof. Siri is a great comp for him except he isn't as natural a fielder or base stealer. Siri has a 37% K rate this year !! (No way Leon is even given playing time if he's 30+.) That's why he only has 1.1 bWAR despite 23 HR and 90th percentile defense in CF. In only 7 more PA, Jake Meyers has 1.6 bWAR with only 9 HR and 97th percentile defense. His K rate is 26%. Apparently TB doesn't mind strikeouts.
Mostly I analyze stats and scout/front office feedback but I also usually get to watch Sugar Land play in person 3-4 times per year and the Hooks play 1-2 times per year. I also watch every highlight clip of the minor leaguers that I can find (@tellitlikeitis is the man for providing so much of that in this thread, especially since Twitter/X has become all but unusable for me now). I have been to spring training minor league back fields in the past but haven’t been able to make that the last few years. I am by no means an expert. Siri is a pretty valuable player. An excellent defensive OF with elite power at the plate and speed on the bases who strikes out too much. That’s a 2-3 win player worth $15-20M/yr. I don’t think Leon will be as good of a CF as Siri but he’s got the same physical tools (and probably a better arm), and he’s able to fill in at 2B and be an emergency option at SS, versatility that adds value. But like Siri, Leon is almost certain to consistently strike out >30% of the time in the majors, which really limits his ceiling.
The absolute ceiling is through the roof. He could have been George Springer type of player, but that just isn't realistic at this point. Although, I could see him producing like Chas McCormick, who is turning in a Springer-esque season.
If you want to have hope for Leon as a star player, Springer is a good source. Springer k’ed in the upper 25-30% range in the minors and as a rookie, then miraculously cut that down to consistently k in the 17-22% range the last 7 years without sacrificing power. That is extremely rare. But if Leon is able to replicate that then yes he would be a star player, I just don’t think there’s any meaningful chance of that actually happening.
I forgot to end my post with: Leon is very unlikely to hit or even come close to that ceiling though. His 90% most likely outcome is basically 2-3 WAR over the course of 4-5 years with limited playing time due to high strikeouts. Then out of the league.
