Verlander asked to be traded to Houston! This confirms 100% my theory … we could have had him much cheaper! Love JV but feel like we got worked and bid against ourselves.
We got JV for free. We sold two prospects to the Mets for 54M. It happened in the same deal but that’s the way it went down. We didn’t trade our too 3 prospects to the Mets for JV.
I don’t disagree. But one thing to factor in is that the prospects sent probably impacted the amount of cash sent back. Clearly Crane was ok sending this talent for that amount of cash in return. I also feel like the emergence of 610’s “white boy Chas” also helped in the decision to let go of our outfield prospects. If you resign Tucker, our prospects were essentially blocked for years to come.
I haven’t heard it from two different people yet - but I was told that the Mets are not paying 54 million to the Astros, but 63 million. I am not sure it materially changes much but it is interesting if true.
Brown at the press conference had some interesting things to say. He sees Clifford as a future 1st baseman and Gilbert as a right fielder. He thinks both can be average starting major leaguers. Said he would not deal up the middle players. Admitted that the Mets eating so much of Scherzer’s contract spurred on Brown trying to get Verlander. Said that they heard other teams were trying to get Verlander but felt good because Verlander had a full no trade. Crane was asked about speaking to Verlander because of their close relationship, Crane immediately said he had no phone calls with Verlander because that would be tampering. Brown confirmed Astros wanted Hader from Padres.
Even if you don’t extend Tucker, he’s here for another 2 years. If Gilbert is the real deal, he should be threatening to make an opening day roster next year.
I think our window can go to 2028, when Yordan's contract is up. Altuve and Bregman after 2024 can easily sign an extension for 2-4 years Chas is good until 2026 and Pena through at least 2025 arb. eligible, with Yainer until 2027 That's 5 core starters to around 2026 and beyond (7 through 2025 counting Tucker and Pena) As long as we have Yordan, Altuve and Bregman the Astros will keep this ship floating in a winning direction. Chas and Yainer definitely help round it out for a solid lineup, and the rest will be up in the air with free agency (who knows perhaps we hit a homerun with a call-up as well) With hitting in the bag, you know the Astros will continue to throw out some decent pitchers. Framber until 2025 (may be extended as long as he's okay with 3-4 years) Hunter Brown and Javier until 2027. Who knows how effective JP France or Garcia will be so not going to speculate on them, but 3 solid starters through 2027+ extends this run as well. I'm not going to include JV as I'm not sure how effective he'll be after 2024. Now that we can clearly see a path to success for the next 5 years, we can look at the what-ifs of Bregman, Altuve and Framber not resigning. Altuve and Bregman both leaving after 2024 would hurt, which makes me fully believe that Altuve at least will be extended for a few more years at least. Could Pedro Leon take over for Bregman at 3b, I could see it happening as a possibility. I also see Colton Gordon getting a chance to hit the rotation by 2025, and maybe the Astros sign a big time pitcher in 2026 if Framber leaves. Either way, the Astros have done a tremedous job keeping a core group together at all times, and replacing perhaps only 1 hole a year instead of several all at once.
I'm happy we got Verlander back but I still want Dylan Cease this offseason and I'm cool with trading Chas to do it
I could see Altuve signing a 2-4 yr extension (based on age, 2 is unlikely but it could happen). No way Bregman signs less than 5 and that would seriously surprise me. I think 6 and/or $180M is absolutely lowest he would do. The team has tried and tried to extend Framber and Tucker. They are both WANTING to test FA. No way Tucker signs for less than 8/$240 or Framber 5/$90M and both of those are if Astros get lucky and catch them on a good day. Almost guarantee both get more. Leon can't do 3B. He is an OF/2B only. He also is not likely to hit enough to be a MLB starter. Bench is much more likely. Dezenzo is the most likely current minor leaguer to take over 3B in 2025 if Alex leaves. This team will be the AL favorite next year unless something bad happens (injurIES, stupid decisions) and will likely be very good in 2025. After that this team will look much different. By 2026: Jose Abreu, Tucker, and most likely Bregman will be gone and Altuve will be past his prime if he is still here (most likely IMO). Verlander, Framber, Urquidy, and the entire bullpen will be gone as well. Finding a starting1B, 3B, at least 1 OF, at least 2 SP and an entire bullpen from minors or FA will determine if this team is still competitive. No doubt that the breakouts of Chas, Diaz, France, and semi breakout of Brown help tremendously, but it's obvious the minor league system needs to improve to fill these spots.
We need to hang on to Bregman for as long as possible. He is an absolute gamer and a cultural force on the team. He also has the ability to hit the highest level pitching. Yuli had this capability as well. He has what it takes to WIN in the biggest moments of the biggest games. Rare!
Where are you getting 5/90 for Framber? A good comp would be Rodon, another LHP, who signed with NY for 6/162 (and he's also been hurt quite a bit). Framber has shown he's durable and steps it up in the playoffs. He's looking at a minimum of 8/200.
I just pulled it out of my a** really. It does feel very low. I was trying to remember Luis Castillo's deal plus think of absolute lowest/best possible situation for Astros. FWIW I looked: Castillo had 1 arb year left and signed 5 yrs $108M. But I concede he will want Rodon (or more) money and my lowest possible was way too low.
He’s not a free agent till 2026 at age 32… I don’t think he will get an 8 year deal at that point. Now if you’re talking about an extension tomorrow, yes 8/200 would be more likely… but why would the Astros give him an extension tomorrow?
2021-2023 stats Bregman Age 29 .260 .358 .437 wRC+ 125 5 defensive runs per 150 games Chas Age 28 .260 .339 .457 wRC+ 123 8 defensive runs per 150 games The biggest difference in their value over the last three years has been one has been played by Dusty more than the other. FanGraphs projection has Bregman as a 4.3 fWAR player and Chas a 3 fWAR player prorated RoS over a full season right now.
