The way they promote DSL guys has been hard to follow, but DSL stats are so poorly correlated with later success that it should make sense that promotions don’t correlate either. Looking at Astros DSL prospects who’ve performed the best since 2006 (by wRC+, min 50 pa), only 2 of the top 30 even reached the majors (Yordan Alvarez and Bryan De La Cruz).
That’s a bummer. He was one I was very wrong about. I thought his low k rate in the complex league would keep while he matured and added power. Didn’t happen and a lesson in the meaninglessness of complex league stats. That said, he’s another one I think the pandemic had a big impact on. Ate a year of his development, then he suffered a serious injury. Just like that he was a 23 year old in High A with a strikeout problem and an injury history.
Lots more " I thought he was a player" posts coming soon as the Astros weed out the pretenders to make room for the draftees in the next couple of weeks. It's sad and hopeful at the same time.
2024 Asheville opening day lineup: CF Zach Cole SS Brice Matthews LF Cam Fisher RF Tyler Whitaker 1B Ricardo Balogh 2B Ryan Johnson DH Narbe Cruz 3B Cristian Gonzalez C Garret Guillemette Bench: Jeron Williams, Will Bush, Luis Encarnacion, Roilan Machandy Fayetteville: CF Kenni Gomez SS Chase Jaworsky LF Neomar Ochoa DH Luis Baez RF Anthony Hueto 3B Austin Deming 2B Alberto Hernandez 1B Waner Luciano C Juan Santander Bench: Dauri Lorenzo, Sandro Gaston, Yamal Encarnacion, Daniel Familia Not bad.
This was posted by a reddit user named /u/Waaaaaaaaaasuup. The teams with highest percentage of draft picks reaching the majors for the last ten years. Spoiler
Was looking over the Astros minor league leaderboards again, and this year's DSL team is crazy. About halfway through the season, the Astros have 8 of the top 45 qualified hitters in the league by OPS: Darwin de Leon 1.104 Keduar Trujillo 1.069 Andrews Sosa 1.034 Cristopfer Gonzalez 1.015 Sandro Pereira 1.014 Jancel Villarroel 1.004 Karniel Pratt .984 Carlos Cauro .964 Only Sandro Gaston (1.108) and Ramiro Rodriguez (.968) have sustained that kind of production in a qualified season for the Astros since 2006, which probably tells you how little DSL stats mean. A couple players having really good seasons is interesting, having 8 makes me wonder what the heck is going on. I feel like having players repeat the DSL is nothing new. Longenhagen's comments about Gilbert and Melton looking stronger than in college makes me wonder if their strength and conditioning program is starting to stand out. I don't necessarily think this means that they're suddenly turning out a lot of great prospects, but the Astros don't usually have this much success hitting in the DSL. 4 of them have played catcher (Trujillo, Sosa, Villarreal, Cauro). Only the 17 year olds, Gonzalez and Periera, are playing their first season, and they could not be more different. Gonzalez is a 6'5" outfielder, whose brother Cristian was one of the most athletic players in the system before his injury. Periera is a short Venezuelan 2B, which is pretty neat.
Yes, I noticed that too. And watching the AAA team last week reaffirmed Longenhagen’s comment to me; all those dudes looked juiced. Hopefully that’ll translate to more guys hitting their peak power potential without hurting them elsewhere. With the 3 HS guys they drafted and the guys in both complex leagues, I feel like the bottom of Houston’s system is the deepest it’s been in my memory on the position player side.
This is interesting. The top 3 on that list definitely correlate to teams that have had some of the most success over that time frame. But beyond that it's kind of a mish-mash. I would be curious to see this list but with cumulative WAR of those players that made the majors also identified.
It would also be interesting to see how many picks made it to the majors with the team that drafted them.
I think those are 2 different issues. The Astros were able to pick highly regarded prospects that other teams covet but choose the right ones to keep and right ones to trade. For example Seth Beer making it to MLB for Arizona rather than Hou should not be a negative.
What’s also notable about that is that the most successful teams are also teams picking at the back of the draft.
After round 1 it almost doesn’t matter Would be interesting to see the success rate of pick 2.1 compared to 2.10 compared to 2.20, I would bet it’s not a lot different
Well one thing it makes me wonder is if teams picking in the back of the draft choose higher floor types that reach the majors at a higher clip. Otherwise the likely reason is that those teams are just better at identifying and develop talent (which is also likely why they are winning at the major league level).
I think it would be a positive. Clearly the Astros wouldn't be promoting an average of 7+ players a year, so they are doing such a good job of drafting and training players they are able to use those they can't promote in trades.
Waner Luciano just hit his 4th home run of the year down in the FCL. He's scored both of their runs today; he also scored on a Richel Del Rosario groundout. The DSL teams got rained out.
Abel Mercedes gave a couple of runs on a single in the 9th, which put a damper on a pretty nice day for him; he allowed two other hits and struck out 7 in his three innings.
