I think this is a fair comparison to make and a fair parameter by which to judge stone our last year of competition with yao and tmac was 08-09 . we “meandered” for 3 years and then came out of it in the playoffs being an 8th seed and getting 45 wins . our last year of completion with harden was 19-20 . Then we stealth tanked one year , and openly tanked 2 more . if you think the timeline is a little harsh , I guess you are right . But stone had harden and Westbrook to trade and Morey had injured yao and tmac . I’d say 40+ wins is a fair bar . And if not you better be feeling damn good about something else .
Harden came to a perennial 9th seed, not to a team fresh off losing 60 games. Harden himself added 11 wins, from 34 to 45 wins. I'd say an 11 win improvement is a huge dissapointment, but 45 wins is delusional, Harden was a ready-to-order borderline superstar at 23, none of our top guys except KPJ will be older than 22.
If Fred is one of the four or five best players on the team by 2025 then something's gone wrong with one of the young guys.
I would add, that Les refused to tank in order to get higher draft picks. That is a big reason we had some garbage picks (white, jones) mixed in with some outright steals (parsons). Bonus mention to the Brad Miller signing, our missing piece. I am of the opinion that we are in a much better position, and we should see good improvement this season with within striking distance of 8th but probably not quite there. We'll see.
yes , but I’m not comparing the record of the previous season . I’m comparing the 3 years since “tear down” timeframe .
The that's wrong because Harden was already there lifting the team as the superstar and he got a bunch of good role players already Beverly, Brooks, Asik, Jeremy Lin, Marcus Morris, Patterson and Chandler Parsons. Rockets just have a bunch of rookies yeah FVV is here but he ain't no James Harden.
If we win half our games in our first attempt at winning games, everyone in the front office should get a promotion. The truth is that in Harden we received a guy who can both score and run the offense plus he had been to an NBA Finals. We have a guy who can potentially score like young Harden (Green) and one who can potentially generate offense like him (Sengun) but not one who can do both. Amen doesn't have enough experience or diversity of scoring. What this roster does have though is a lot of potentially good defenders. Landale, Jabari, Uncle Jeff, Eason, Tate, Brooks, FVV is 7 guys who should be good defenders under Udoka. That's very unique for a young team. Superstar-led teams often get away with fewer defenders than that. We're a bit more like the Heat than the Nuggets. We need the power of team basketball on both ends to make up for our lack of elite volume scoring. If a surprise is going to happen, it will be fueled by a defense that catches fire after 20-30 games. Hawks, Raptors, Wolves, Pelicans, Bulls and Thunder finished at or around .500 last season. Of those teams the Bulls finished highest in defense (#5) and worst on offense (#24). Looking at the Bulls they have a very familiar problem: a C who for ten years couldn't protect the rim well, couldn't hold his own on the perimeter and brought most of his value in the post, some range, offensive rebounds and assists. They also have two starting wings who are not good defenders (Derozan/Lavine) but were willing to give effort regardless. What they had that we didn't is chemistry because they've been together for a while. It's a terrific model for us to follow defensively. Finishing top 10 in defense and top 20 in offense would suffice to win half our games. That would be an excellent outcome. In truth a realistic goal is closer to 35 wins but miracles happen sometimes. The amount of team building and training they're doing in the summer bodes well.
Back then load management was not a thing and then came the Covid wave and the Bubble. 2nd Apron now. Time changes, expectations are the same....... I am just not seeing it in Year 1 of Ime.
40 wins…. Eh… I don’t see it but there is hope if one or more of the youngsters blow up this year. Stone and Ime need a big year from Jalen Green though that’s for sure. Him and Sengun probably have the most riding on them…. And the front office thought so highly of Sengun that they blew their wad going after someone who would have benched him. So 40 wins… I would take the under.
Imagine if Les said we could tank and Morey got the 2nd, 3rd and 4th pick in 09-10, 10-11 and 11-12?! 09 - 2nd pick Hasheem Thabeet (Cherry pick choice of Harden or Curry) 10 - 3rd pick Derrick Favors (Cherry pick choice of Boogie Cousins or Paul George) 11 - 4th pick Tristan Thompson (Cherry pick Kawhi, Klay or Jimmy Butler) No wrong cherry choices. Extremely wrong 2/3/4 lol... Do you still get to trade for Harden?
Morey isn't there to trade for Harden if he selected Thabeet/Favors/Thompson with back-to-back-to-back top 4 picks. Thabeet going 2nd puzzles me to this day.
True... Let's say he would've selected Harden #2 09, #3 10 without absolutely cherry picking the greats would've been Favors or Cousins. The real question is who goes #4 in 11 (without cherry picking a HOFer)? Valenciunas, Tristan Thompson and Biyombo unlikely since you picked a solid center the year before. Brandon Knight or Jan Vesely are the next few options. We're walking out of the tank with Amen, Jalen and Jabari. And it feels good. How would you have felt if we walked out of the tank with Knight, Harden and Favors? 2013 free agency instead of Dwight you go after Igoudala or Josh Smith... or CP3? Knight, Harden, Parsons, Smith, Favors This thought experiment has made me really grateful it didn't go down this way.
I'd be extremely shocked if we win 40. That would mean a lot of people's jobs are safe. I'm more inclined to believe we win 30-35 games at best. We don't have any established stars on this team yet.. unless you count FVV. I still don't think Green, Jabari and even Sengun will take that next step to superstardome this year.
My expectations are 25 wins. FVV is highly overrated and Brooks is flat out bad. There's no one on the team anywhere near as good as Harden. Setting the bar at 40 wins is just setting yourself up for failure.
Just had flashbacks of that first week or so he played for us. I didn’t realize he was going to be that good that quickly.
I’d gladly bet against you on this one. 40 is certainly achievable, and -25 should only happen with major injuries. This team isn’t great, but it has some decent pieces that if they develop chemistry, could certainly compete — not contend (without a Bubble Heat like miracle). FVV is being overpaid because we had to spend money and 3 years w a TO fits the timeline of getting more competitive experience for our youth, while not hamstringing ourselves for when they hit prime. Not a lot of prime FAs available to us. Brooks is the contract that stings, but might not be that bad if the cap continues to rise 10m+ the next few years. His tenacity, fight, and hustle is necessary though. If he does that and shoots less, he could be a superior glue guy. Doesn’t take shots from Green, Sengun, Jabari, Amen and KPJ. He and Tari will be our energizer bunnies. Him and Tate our “enforcers.” We’re fanatics. Why not be optimistic? This team has a chance to defy expectations and be really exciting.
