folks trying to convince themselves Portland is taking Amen is straight comedy hour. Scoot is head and shoulders above him. hence why Amen isn't included in the top 3 tier that's been regurgitated over and over and over and over
Agree with the first part. Scoot is clearly above Amen. I don't think Miller is clearly above Amen, though. Higher floor, but significantly lower upside.
Miller is easily above Amen. shooting Wings with length and versatility are much more valuable then guards with a broken jump shot. that's why Miller is regarded as the #2 behind Wemby
Vecenie does seem to go with high ceiling guys in the draft at the top, even if it might not be super likely. I don't need to go in-depth (Sam's write-up goes deep enough), but yeah I'd agree that Cam has a lot of great raw skills and talent (on offense and defense). And he's an athletic monster. Given his age and injury issues in HS/college, that might explain many of his "feel" issues (and indicate how impressive the other parts of his game are). I'm a bit lower on Cam, but I get it. Honestly all of those guys in that tier have legitimate arguments for being the best pick in the tier. Not saying I'd agree with those arguments, but you can make those arguments, especially if you think your team has the perfect tools/resources to help out with that player's weaknesses. edit: Not sure if SAS would have drafted Cam if they had 4th-6th instead...but I would kinda like to see how that combination would have worked (especially if Pop could stick around and coach at a high level for 5 more years or so).
Miller is similar to Jabari. I can see teams valuing an elite playmaker over a 3/D player, similar to Orlando last year. Obviously Paolo's jumper is better than Amen's but if Amen had a good jumper he'd be the clear #2 prospect this year.
He's not regarded #2 because of talent but more because of fit. They have Lamelo already and they're not looking for another pg.
Miller is actually coming in more advanced than Bari. If this and that. If doesn't matter. he doesn't. So he clearly isn't the #2 prospect If Miller was 7'6 he would be the #1 pick. If Scoot was 7'6 he would be the #1 pick. blah blah blah
it doesn't matter what it is. He's #2 because that's what he is. CF's can go through all the mental hoops they want and try to tell themselves the 4th pick syndrome that the rockets are going to be stuck with is better than miller/scoot. in reality he isn't
Teams are not going to BALK on Brandon because of the murder case, the media is pushing him to #2. This is what people are say about the top prospects: Wemby- is a Generational Player Scoot- is a Generational Point Guard Amen- is a Franchise Point Guard Brandon- is a gifted offense shooter I would rather have a Generational or Franchise prospect than grifter player….I hope Portland do not draft Amen, because we are not picking Brandon…..we might draft Ausar Thompson…elite defender, elite 1 step, vision and feel for the game
Those are ceilings - but that's only part of the assessment. Most talent evaluators and certainly ALL GMs are going to be weighing risk vs reward and that means you have to look at their floor. Amen may be a franchise PG as a ceiling, but he's out of the league in 6 years as a floor because finding a niche for a PG who can't shoot is very low. Wasting a high lotto pick on a guy who ultimately ends up out of the league in a few years is FAR worse than drafting a guy who is useful, but maybe doesn't turn into a star because the name of the draft game is ending up with a player asset that appreciates over time.
He can shoot well enough - that's why he is the 2nd best prospect in the draft. Where he actually gets drafted is contextual because he happens to play the same position as the teams drafting #2 and #3's best player.
The way I look at it is that no prospect is going to check every box. Even Wemby and Scoot are not great shooters. I won't pretend to know every attribute that makes up a good player, but the guy seems to check basically every box, except shooting. Size - Great First Step - Elite Wingspan - Great Athleticism - Elite Defense - Great Passing - Elite Feel for the Game - Great Shooting - Poor So then you say, well can his shooting improve? Based on the commentary, the guy seems to have the work ethic, so I don't see why he can't. I think it is a good swing at #4, especially with it being a long term position of need. I went into the draft thinking I would be happy in the top 4, and I am still am.
I will say that for two consecutive drafts, we have definitely seen teams in the top 5 cut against the grain when it comes to drafting at the end of the "consensus elite tier". In 2021, pretty much everyone had Cunningham/Green/Mobley/Suggs as head and shoulders above everyone else, with Scottie Barnes as the best "consolation prize", and it was a true draft day shock that Toronto took him at #4 over Suggs (and was handsomely rewarded for it). In 2022, we heard a lot of noise about Jaden Ivey being the top guard, and arguably even a better pick over Banchero/Holmgren/Smith due to the NBA being guard dominated. The Kings got pretty unfairly roasted for trading out of the pick or trading down and getting old man Keegan Murray, but it seems clear that he was the right choice in building a team that works around Fox/Sabonis. Never in my wildest dreams did I expect that Jabari would be available at #3 last year; also never in my wildest dreams did I expect him to look so bad and have his one carrying skill of shooting completely abandon him. If the Rockets are actually able to get Scoot at #4 and he ends up being worse than our current Scoot, would definitely be a "careful what you wish for moment" that has defined the Rockets rebuild.
