Vegas is usually unerringly accurate but I think they have fallen victim to the most common of mistakes - underestimation. The perception that the Texans will likely suck again merely because they are the Texans is a fashion in this league and a shortsighted one - this time it IS different and they will lose a lot of money. We here in Houston may be homers, but most of us are/were jaded especially over the last few years but many of us are savvy football fans and follow this team closely. Few of us doubt the potential of this new season with a new exciting coaching regime, some sensible FA signings and now an exciting draft. It is illogical to think this team will not be greatly improved in '23.
The Texans are going to do a whole lot better if: Demeco Ryans is who everyone thinks he is And If Bobby Slowik can teach the offense well. That is it. 8-9 wins and a competitive division if that is the case.
Kool Aid is always the strongest right after the draft. Jags arent going anywhere - they got better too and are the team to beat as of today. If Indy trots out an RPO attack with Richardson, Taylor and that awesome OL they will be a handful. I can see TENN stumbling. Im not ready to start crowning this team before getting to see the product on the field - a complete overhaul like this takes time.
Vegas is usually unerringly accurate but I think they have fallen victim to the most common of mistakes - underestimation. The perception that the Texans will likely suck again merely because they are the Texans is a fashion in this league and a shortsighted one - this time it IS different and they will lose a lot of money. We here in Houston may be homers, but most of us are/were jaded especially over the last few years but many of us are savvy football fans and follow this team closely. Few of us doubt the potential of this new season with a new exciting coaching regime, some sensible FA signings and now an exciting draft. It is illogical to think this team will not be greatly improved in '23. Agree. Will take time to learn the playbook and gel together as a cohesive unit. We should get an idea by the end of the season if the arrow is pointing up, or if we will be grumbling again.
As of today Houston enjoys one of the easiest strength of schedules in the NFL. SOS tends to ebb and flow as each season is unique, but based on that I could see this team around the 6 win mark being more of a realistic accomplishment. Rookie QBs do dumb stuff. Rookie HCs do dumb stuff. A whole new offense takes time to memorize let alone perfect like you mentioned. I'd love for this team to deny all odds and take the league by storm - I've learned valuable lessons as a Texan fan over the last 20 years and the biggest one is "never too high - never too low". I'll cross fingers with the rest of you guys!
The Texans still have a tremendous number of glaring holes: their WRs are mediocre; the interior of their OL is sub-mediocre; they have very few defensive playmakers, a pedestrian front 7, an awful run defense. and a secondary we all *think* will be better but wasn't very good last year. And they have a rookie HC and QB. The schedule looks easier - but I think they'll be lucky to win... 6 games this year. I really think using any form of the word "great" with this team is wildly premature. The are way too many questions .
I mean, I want to be optimistic and I think I AM optimistic. I think they will take a big jump this year. 6-8 wins would be a big jump though, Winning the division would be bananas! Specifically: Interior Oline: Likely improved this year, but still has questions at 1G and C spot. Maybe those are average? DLine: This should be dramatically improved this year, but again, going from awful to solid would be dramatic. That's not a division winning dline though. Secondary: Safeties should be solid, corners could be among the worst in the league. Maybe they are average? Maybe Stingley is healthy all year and is a stud? But those are big question marks. It's a bad position group on the team. Offense: Total wild card. We have no idea what to expect from a rookie QB. I think the WR/TE tandem is actually fine in combination with the running game in this system. But the QB could have a GOOD rookie year and still not be very good.
On over-under wins Vegas sets odds to try and bring in equal money on both sides of the bet. These odds will change even before the first game is played. I’m going to jump on the over 5.5 wins with a grand which I think is easy money. I don’t believe they can beat out the Jags for the South, but I think both the Titans and Colts will be worse than the Texans this year.
The biggest thing is that people are assuming is that Tennessee and Indy won’t take steps back. Both have questions at QB, rosters that are being overrated(Indy’s OL is the most overrated OL in the NFL) and play tougher schedules. The Texans will benefit from Indy and Tennessee not being as good as projected. I don’t think they make the playoffs but the Texans won’t be last in the division imo
Are we saying Stingley won't be good or he won't stay on the field? When Stingley played, he played well. Are we forgetting he didn't give up a TD when he played? We'll have a better scheme than that played out Tampa 2 coverage, veteran leadership in Jimmie Ward with Pitre, a slightly improve Dline with Ridgeway and Rankin, a run stopper in Denzel Perryman, and a legit pass rusher in Will Anderson. If Greenard can get back to himself, he could easily get 8-10 sacks as well. I'm not expecting to win 10 games but I don't see why our defense doesn't improve to at least middle of the pack. 6 of our 13 losses were one score games and we tied the Colts. I think we double our win total from 2022 and win 6-8 games.
The Texans made this trade because of the conviction they will be better this season. They are banking on being better than the Browns. P.S The O/U for the Browns is 9.5. Let that sink in on the stones this new regime has.
The only thing derailing this prediction is injuries and that can happen to any team. I'm predicting 7 wins, a few games out of first and we will have a shot at playoffs in December then it falls apart (injuries, etc.). Ideally, we enter the 2024 off-season with a ton of cap and a star QB. Fanbase is hyped and we make more big moves in FA and the draft next year as we go for it.
The Colts won 4 games last year. They have a better roster than the Texans, and most think they had a better draft, too. I'm not sure there's any possible way the Colts take a step back. 14 of the teams' opponents are identical. The Texans draw Jets, Broncos & Cardinals; Colts get Patriots, Raiders & Rams. Houston draws the only team among the six with any playoff aspirations. I think you may be vastly underrating the Colts, who I suspect will be ~2 games better than the Texans.
Odds don’t mean anything this time of year, accept on sucker bets which Vegas will make a ton on, like Texans winning SB or Stroud is MVP. I will say it for the thousandth time, Vegas odds on wins are set based on where the money is coming in. They are more than happy to get their 10% beak wetting by making sure that equal money comes in on both sides of the bet. I’ll make a bet with you that the odds change on the 5.5 o/u before the season starts. In fact, it will change multiple times in the month before the season begins. Just on the FA signings the Texans improved their defense dramatically with Rankin and Ward. Add Anderson, a full year of Stingley and Harris and a defensive guru as head coach and we will easily be improved by 10 spots if not more. Of course, injuries will affect us just like the rest of the league. Add Singletary over our backup last year and a pro-bowl TE over the journeyman last year and a vet Guard and wham the offense gets much better as well, even if our rookie QB is below average. Jacksonville will win the division unless their QB gets hurt. The Titans and Colts have been regressing and will regress even more. The Titans will most assuredly suck and we have an easier schedule than most anybody in the league. I might be a tad bit optimistic, but much less optimistic than the naysayers are pessimistic. The naysayers are just letting their emotions about the past Texan regimes cloud their judgement.
An improvement to 6-8 wins would be glorious to me. I made the mistake of getting overly optimistic last season and the Texans crushed those hopes as efficiently as they possibly could have. I do have faith that Demeco will be a good coach, but this team still has a long way to go. Jacksonville will still be good. Indy will probably be roughly somewhere around the Texans but I think the coaching staff of the Colts will be effective at shaping their offense around AR15, so even though they will have a rookie QB just like us, their offense will be better than ours. I do think that our run game on offense has the potential to be in the upper half of the league. I think Singletary and Pierce are going to be an incredible combo. Hopefully them being productive will reduce how much we rely on Stroud to carry the team in his rookie season. Defense I really have no idea. I'd like to think we are way better than last year just because Demeco will better utilize the talent we have, but that may be unwarranted optimism, just like last season. At this point, I'm limiting my hopes for next season to signs that CJ Stroud can be the QB of the future for this team, an improvement in overall defensive scheme and signs that Demeco is prepared and knows what he is doing on the sidelines. I think those are realistic.
I can rephrase to the colts will be on par with their last year record. A lot of the Colts projection is based upon Steichen fixing AR sooner rather than later and this thought that Minshew is somehow better than an average backup. I don’t think their roster is very good. Outside of Taylor they don’t have anything on offense, and they’re very thin on the backend of the defense, and pretty thin up front. Their OL is older and has regressed. I would absolutely bet that the Texans finish with a better record than the Colts.
Very good analysis. I'm thinking along those same lines, about 6 - 8 wins as currently constructed. It's not going to benefit them to lose, so why not going ALL in to win more. Why not try and bring in D-Hop and Clowney to try and push that win total to 9 - 10? I think they need two more weapons one on both sides of the ball.
