Even if we have the worst record, do you honestly believe we'll get the top pick?

I dont even care if thr Rox get the top pick or not, they still have a lot of holes right now only Jalen and Sengun have made the cut for me. A top 5 pick would be great lets grab Leonard Miller, Cam Whitmore, Anthony Black, Ausar Thompson, Gradey Dick etc I mean whoever. Lets just upgrade the roster.

 

Here is the thing:

People don't appreciate how small these lottery odds are -- 14% chance of a Wemby means if a Wemby is available every year and we tank for 7 straight years, then you will on average get one.

Even more so, people don't appreciate how slow the odds change if you win more games as the worst team -- If we play at a 31-win pace instead of 19-win pace, we would have the 5th worst record in the league (e.g. Orlando currently), we would have 10.5% chance of a Wemby, for a 3.5% decrease. You would have to tank like us (instead of semi-compete like an Orlando) for about 30 years to get on average an extra top-1 pick.

By the way, I don't think we're intentionally trying to be a 19-win team. They know fielding a 31-win team at this point is massively more promising, but we just suck.

 

I don’t believe in unicorns exist in Houston.

maybe in San Antonio or Detroit

 

the worst record used to have 25% odds ((

 

Three’s the charm

 

I think the NBA values the Houston market, so yeah.

 

That's exactly why you want to be worst .... you only have a 14% chance at #1 but you have a 100% chance of being in the top 5 and better than even chance of being 1-4.

Sure, Wemby is the prize this year and Scoot the clear #2 but there's a couple other guys not named Thompson that are going to make their teams very happy.

Brandon Miller
Anthony Black
Gradey Dick
Jarace Walker
Jet Howard
Cam Whitmore
Keyonte George
Nick Smith jr

Brandon Miller has an outside shot at finishing 50/40/90 and would be my pick 3 and beyond .... I don't like guys who can't shoot. You can keep the Thompson twins.

And there's some talent where the Bucks pick should end up too .... or maybe they move up if someone they like fell some.

Point is, it isn't Wemby or bust like many of you complain .... the idea is being no worse than 5 with the potential for better.

I'm hoping these clowns don't rattle off 4-6 in a row and blow it like the Texans did.

 

Do you really think NBA gonna let the biggest prospect since LeBron just land wherever? I'm not saying he is not landing in Houston, but it will not be random

 

Wemby is going to San Antonio. They have the lowest cache of any sort of ‘name’ prospects to get excited about right now. That franchise is currently in biggest need of a handout, and there’s a history there with Pop and the organization of building good will among European fans. It fits too well, and Silver will rig it for them. Best we can hope for is Scoot.

 

Yes, we want to get Wemby or Scoot….

But the bigger picture is we need high draft picks in order to have better tradeable assets.

 

Since lot's of people are so sure that the NBA will rig it so that Wemby goes to the Spurs, does anyone want to make a tip jar bet? I'll take 86% odds sure.

 

This is my gut feeling if the lottery is indeed rigged. It just makes the most sense businesswise with French fans already connected to the Spurs franchise via Tony Parker. Much like how the Rockets still have a lot of Chinese fans.

 

The pace doesn't show the whole picture as bad teams could go on winning streaks or losing streaks at the end therefore sabotaging every on pace prediction.

 

Rudy Gobert ended up in Utah and then Minnesota.

Evan Fournier funnier went Denver.

 

True but none of those guys had clout like Wemby nor considered “generational”. All of this is just speculation on my part of course, who knows.

 

They became French loving people down there, I wish he lands East if he doesn't come here.

East would be deep.

 

Lottery odds aren't just about the top pick.

They are about how far you can fall from that top pick.

Being worst you can fall no further than 5th.

Being that 31 win team you might fall all the way to 10 or worse with your 6.5% chance at #1

Much like Chicago or Washington this year, they probably end up with a win total in the low 30's.

As things currently stand, Washington has a 7.5% at the top pick, Chicago a 6% chance at the top pick.

But Washington has a 66% chance of picking between 7-10

Chicago has a 74% chance of picking between 8 & 11.

I'd much rather they are worst and pick no lower than 5 with that 14% chance at the top prize.


Here's a link to the pick odds.
2023 NBA Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon