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If Jalen Green had 2017 Harden’s shot selection, he’d be way more efficient.

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by bmd, Dec 13, 2022.

  1. kjayp

    kjayp Contributing Member

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    "We dont adjust to them - THEY adjust to us!"
    still one of the stupidest things i ever heard MDA utter... really... the hubris... lol

    take what the defense gives you...

    if you got Derrick Henry... but the defense is loading 8 in the box every play - daring you to throw it... you dont keep running the ball up the middle - regardless of your typical efficiency... lol.... unless yer Marty Schottenheimer or Todd Downing... lol
     
    #21 kjayp, Dec 13, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2022
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  2. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    Why would he do that?

    I get it, efficiency, but in the playoffs and in big games a lot of times you need points, damn how you get them.

    Why take away an option from him and make him more predictable?

    Let him keep working on his mid range game, you never know when the team might need him to make a mid range jumper by two and if they do at least he'll be comfortable taking them.

    There was one Harden, no reason to try and make him be that when his game and toolset is just different.
     
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  3. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    Being competent at mid range will prevent long scoring droughts. The current style of 3 or at the rim results in more droughts and streaks.
     
  4. mac_got_this

    mac_got_this Member

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    I dont want him to duplicate harden. Just be Jalen. I like seeing him utilize the midrange. It’s a good shot selection for him because it’s open and space created
     
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  5. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    I want him to get lots of free throws like Harden did.
     
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  6. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    Yep. There is a human element to the game too that people just don't get.

    Usually, if you're cold the coach tells you either to get to the rim to get FTs (see the ball go in) or just get a little closer. Just get an easier shot. Seeing the ball go through the rim is always a boost of confidence, so much so that you always see players trying to shoot after whistles (and defenders denying the opposing players) so it does matter.

    I think you're exactly right, a lot of teams heavily reliant on three pointers go through long droughts. Sometimes you just need points. Just keep the scoreboard moving. You want to have a guy who you can just give the ball to for a few possessions and just keep the scoreboard moving. That's what Jalen is supposed to be.

    Three is better than two but two is better than 0.

    We don't need another Harden. This isn't a knock on Harden, who is an all time great and top 3 Rocket of all time...Jalen just has a different toolset than Harden. I think Jalen's game is more similar to classic wings like Kobe/Jordan, not that he's at that level of course, but that's the kind of wing I think we want him to be.
     
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  7. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    If Jalen Green had 2017 Harden's shot selection he would disappear when we really needed him.
     
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  8. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    Hopefully he actually gets good at midrange shots so they aren’t just a waste of a possession.
     
  9. JW86

    JW86 Member

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    Likely yes, read my post. Don’t remember 0-27?! Sheesh…and @bmd you seriously want this guy to shoot more threes over taking these midrange and long range twos just because of percentages?! Sorry but that is just silly and analytics without understanding context type reasoning.
     
  10. Swapshop

    Swapshop Member

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    And if he had the exact same shot selection he will learn to be shut down come playoff time.
     
  11. bmd

    bmd Member

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    If they had to put 8 in the box to slow down Derrick Henry, that would be the defense reacting to you, genius.

    But at the same time, just because they are giving you something doesn’t mean you should take it if it’s not a good option. Shooting a bunch of midrange shots just because the defense is “giving it to you” is idiotic.
     
  12. bmd

    bmd Member

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    So your solution to a team shooting a low percentage is to double down on the lowest percentage shot in the game?
     
  13. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    It's contextually based. In a specific game setting the lowest percentage shot might be the three because of fatigue or the paint because of how heavily guarded it is.

    The efficiency of a shot from what range it's from varies from situation to situation. It's just that in the aggregate, the 3pt shot and inside the paint shot are more efficient.

    I wish people understood this particular aspect of scoring efficiency and statistics.
     
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  14. bmd

    bmd Member

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    Teams with this current shot selection don’t even make the playoffs.
     
  15. bmd

    bmd Member

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    I don’t disagree. Individual games are volatile. We’re talking over the course of a season.

    Winning in the playoffs comes down to execution.

    Shooting a bunch of midrange shots might win you some games you would have lost by taking other shots… but it’s going to lose you a lot more games that you otherwise would have won by taking more statistically efficient shots.
     
  16. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    No one is asking to shoot a bunch of mid range shots or make it a core staple of the offense. Guys like Green should take enough to at least have a feel for them when we do need them in certain situations.

    Like we aren't going to ask Tari and KJ to take mid range shots. Certain players should take them frequently enough where they don't lose the muscle memory for them. That's all.
     
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  17. kjayp

    kjayp Contributing Member

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    thats the point... its a game of constant adjustments - ON BOTH SIDES!

    If the defense enters the game with a plan or makes an adjustment... u dont just ignore it...

    you dont let the other team adjust and u just keep carrying on like a stubborn ass... spose normally u get a decent amount of separation for your 3pt shooters... defense decides to ignore the paint and get out on shooters and get a hand in their face... so now yer chucking contested 3s... do u just keep on, cause well thats yer gameplan... dum dum dum... 50+ 3s a game... dum dum dum... no matter what the other team is doing... dum dum dum...

    set aside your hubris and play the course...

    maybe u, MDA, Marty Schottenheimer and Todd Downing should all get together for a beer...

    edit: example... normally we run right bc thats where we've had our best success... our RT is a lil better than our LT, so we tend to do much better going right... oh, were up against an all-pro RDE and they have a scrub at LDE... gee... maybe we should run left this game...?
     
    #37 kjayp, Dec 14, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2022
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  18. apollo33

    apollo33 Member

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    Green doesn't have 2017 Harden's shot selection because he's not Harden. Green gets blocked a ton at the rim when he tried to just blindly drive into traffic. He has neither the body nor the finishing ability of Harden to attempt that many drives at the rim.

    It's not that Green doesn't want to have Harden's shot selection, it's that he's nowhere no good enough to get it. The reason he takes mid ranges is because he either cannot find a shot at the rim, or there's no space for a 3
     
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  19. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    No, but if a guy can hit a mid range shot then he should be able to shoot a mid range shot and not be told to instead drive into a crowded paint or get run back to the 3 point line.

    It's all based on the game, if the defense is running you off the line and has a big slow center (like Lopez) who is leaving it open, you take it. If you can hit it. A big reason we beat the Bucks was because our guys took those shots. Green scored 10 points from that range in that game, 10 points we definitely needed to beat one of the best teams in the NBA.
     
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  20. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    According to Basketball reference, Green in his first two seasons so far fg% 0-3 ft from the rim:
    68%, 66% respectively.

    Both years he led or currently leading all NBA guards in dunks.


    Harden his first two years probably with better looks due to having better teammates:
    47%, 62%


    All you did in this post is list the advantages Harden has. Yes Harden has advantages. He's significantly stronger, has longer wingspan, probably larger hands which means better grip strength. I don't know of another one. Maybe his craftiness to know what refs look for.

    Green has strengths of his own.

    He has significantly more athleticism, vertically and laterally. His euro steps are ridiculously explosive in creating seperation as evidence of his lateral shiftiness. He's far more pliable and has better ability to adjust after contact to still finish.

    Both have soft touch around the rim. Opposite would be someone like Westbrook who goes full speed to the rim but doesn't have the ability to softly lay it in. Green has that speed and ability to make soft finishes around the rim.


    You are definitely underrating Green as a finisher.

    If you were a full time Rocket fan during that stage of Harden that probably means you weren't watching EVERY single OKC game and seeing the times he struggled at the rim at that stage of his career. You see that with Green as you watch Rocket games I presume.
     

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