I am O.K. with Vasquez. And, I really want the Astros to sign Brantley if he is cleared to play. I think we are set with pitching.
To be fair - Those threads were when Whitley was younger, healthier, and far less proven. Time has not been kind to him. Conversely, Hunter Brown dominated triple an and flashed in the majors. So it’s really apples and oranges
Yep. Like I said- I’m still buying Whitley stock as a distressed asset but Brown is waaaaaay less likely to bust then Whitley. He dominated AAA Whitley **** the bed up there. he showed out like a freaking stud in the majors including throwing some high leverage and nasty innings in the playoffs. he’s progressed beyond “pitching prospect” in my mind to now a big league pitcher that needs some seasoning. That was never the case for Whitley.
To me there are 2 starting caliber free agents in Vazquez and Narvaez, with Alfaro, Barnhart, Hedges, Zunino, and Sanchez representing fringe-regular or solid backup options. With 2 above average-to-excellent catchers poised to be traded in Murphy and whoever Toronto trades, it looks like there may end up being more players than spots, which would help Houston.
Murphy is a nice player, but calling him a very rare asset feels a little exaggerated. At this point I'd prefer platooning Barnhart or Navarez. Both have good defense, lefty bats that hit righties well, and have favorable walk rates and strikeout rates. Looking for a bounce back season on a cheap contract from either seems much more preferable than trading the farm for Murphy.
Doesn’t hurt having seven starters too get through the season at worse case Urquidy, Garcia or whoever we sign could be a valuable trade piece at the deadline. Astros are 41 mil under the tax so there’s def room for Benintendi or a quality vet starter and the room to fill out the bench with a catcher, IF/OF reserve (Brantley, Gurriel, etc). Dubon and Hensley have the versatility too fill in the gaps around that.
One way it is apples to oranges is that Whitley was much more highly thought of at his peak; he was pretty much the consensus top pitching prospect in the league. Brown is just as much at risk of requiring TJ or busting due to lack of control as any pitching prospect. He is FAR more likely to end up like Whitley as he is to be the next Verlander.
With all due respect, and I do mean all due respect If I've learned anything about prospect forecasting in baseball - especially with respect to pitchers - it's that we don't know anything about them until they hit the AA, AAA level. I don't care how highly regarded they are coming out of high school (or college for that matter) they are. Any rankings of them, especially from initial draft prospect status out of high school - should be taken with a grain of salt. Never get your hopes up until they've shown they can do something. In my opinion - Hunter showed he can do something. I think he's a little more polished than Musgrove too and I really like Musgrove - who has outperformed expectations a bit.
What would be ridiculous would be to draw conclusions from 20.1 MLB innings. Brown projects to be a 1.1 fWAR pitcher over 100 innings next season, with a solid 9.81 k/9 but less stellar 3.5 bb/9. Kluber projects for 1.7 fWAR over 159 innings. Over 159 innings using the same project value/inning for Brown, he would be worth...1.7 fWAR. Brown looked badass in his initial MLB stint. He's a good prospect. And that twitter clip of him overlaid with Verlander to show their similar deliveries is cool. But he's still an unproven pitching prospect.
Vasquez was already offered a two-year deal and turned it down from the Astros said he wants to start. He has an offer from the Twins I'm sure he'll probably weigh another option or two. It's extremely unlikely he will become an Astro again.
"If I've learned anything about prospect forecasting, it's to wait until a pitcher has thrown 20.1 MLB innings before declaring them an ace."
Murphy is pretty good. But if you offered Murphy or Brown to every other MLB team, I'm betting 29 of those teams would take Brown first, Murphy second. It's pitching, and while it's still early, his stuff looks elite.
And for every post about Whitley, there was a similar post about Tucker. Heck, I can remember when the hottest trade proposal was Bregman for Jose Quintana
Brown projects to produce 1 fWAR starting in 56 innings and 0.1 fWAR in 44 innings relieving by the projection you cite. If one believes Brown will be utilized as a starter mostly, that 1 fWAR becomes 2.5 fWAR really quick as a median value projection. Over 159 innings, Brown would be worth 2.8 fWAR using the same project value/inning, but assuming Brown is a starter. Over 6 years, that would be over $150M in value under club control minus arbitration salaries (say $110M in surplus value). Murphy's SV is estimated around $50M. I believe Brown will be utilzed as a starter.
agreed. I'm not declaring him an ace by a longshot. I do think he'll be a rotation guy. For how long and where in the order? We shall see.
The Steamer projections are exremely similar to the FGDC projections, are those based on split roles as well? Either way, Brown is not projected to be a full-time starter this season, whereas Kluber would likely step in front of Urquidy in the 2023 pecking order. My comment was only talking about 2023; beyond that I would not expect Kluber to be able to fully replace Brown's production. If you think Brown's true surplus value is $150M...I don't know what to tell ya, we are FAR apart on that.
Brown is TREMENDOUSLY UNDERVALUED by that site. It's minor league guys values are dominated by lists put out by YANKEE FANS.
I'm pretty sure FGDC is the average of their projection systems scaled down into whatever playing time they project the player to get. Right now they only have the steamer projection, so they're the same thing.
