Agreed. I’ll be disappointed if we lose Agreed. If all we did was upgrade the DH position while losing JV is a disappointment.
I think many of us can relate to being over 40 and how much easier it is to become injured and how significantly harder it is to recover- this is what gives me pause. Yes, he has all the advantages in terms of conditioning, nutrition, etc., but father time is undefeated. Is he Nolan or Roger? I guess we will find out.
You don’t ever want to count on anyone being the 2nd coming of Nolan Ryan, but Nolan Ryan posted a 3.5 fwar, 3.08 FIP season at age 45 and his career only ended because he got hurt (and was ready to retire); of course his age likely increased his chances of getting hurt, but he did not really suffer from standard age related decline. I will be extremely surprised if Verlander doesn’t sign for 3 years. I think the odds probably favor him being pretty good for 2 of those years. And there’s a chance he could go well into his mid 40s as an effective pitcher; he’s got less mileage and better healthcare than Ryan had. But I wouldn’t give him $130M unless I was in “**** it” mode and had no real budget constraints.
Spoiler https://theathletic.com/3895223/2022/11/16/sarris-best-bargain-free-agents/ Andrew Heaney (2 years / $20 million) Jean Segura (2 years / $24 million) Christian Vázquez (2 years / $16 million) Christian Vázquez is no slouch defensively. FanGraphs had him 15th in framing runs and fifth in defensive runs saved, so he can handle himself behind the dish. There’s no real evidence that catchers fall off a cliff, no matter what decade you use for your aging curves. His framing won’t get better as he ages, but he was well clear of starting-level catchers like Martin Maldonado, Will Smith, and J.T. Realmuto, so if the offense is good enough, he’s a starting catcher for someone, on an $8 million average annual value. That is, by definition almost, a good value. At the plate, Vázquez is not your typical catcher. The league line for the catcher position includes a 23.4 percent strikeout rate and a .226 batting average, with near league-average power (.141 isolated slugging). Vázquez has struck out 18 percent of the time for his career and has kept it under 17 percent the last two seasons. He’s also hit just 15 homers in the last two seasons, and swings at pitches outside the zone fairly regularly — and contact outside the zone ages poorly. It doesn’t matter! You’re signing him for two years. Vazquez is ideal for a team like the Tigers, who struck out fourth-most in the majors last year and could use some offense at the position. Brandon Nimmo (5 years / $100 million) It’s tempting to say the most relevant question about Brandon Nimmo as a free agent is his defensive position. Teams are much more likely to pony up for a center fielder than a corner outfielder, and the list of spenders that might have an opening there (Astros, Cubs, Giants) is deep enough to believe in a price-inflating competition for his services that might push his contract value up to the six years and $132 million that The Athletic’s Tim Britton produced as a possibility for Nimmo. As a corner outfielder, he’d drop on the priority list as teams usually try to figure themselves out up the middle before they get to the corners. But Nimmo was a pretty good defensive center fielder last year — he was 14th among center fielders in Outs Above Average, in a virtual tie with Chas McCormick, Cody Bellinger, Harrison Bader, and Alek Thomas). And more importantly, Nimmo is projected to have the best bat of any free agent outfielder not named Aaron Judge next season. It’s more via on-base percentage than slugging, but he’s got the second-best OBP projection by more than 25 points in the outfield, and the second-best OBP projection among all free agents. He has a top-10 OBP projection in all of baseball thanks to his tireless work at discerning pitches at an early age that produced a top-10 chase rate over the last three seasons. The Tigers had the second-worst OBP in the league last year, the Rangers were fifth-worst, and among possible spenders, the Giants, Mariners and Cubs were all average or worse in that category. Wait, so why is Nimmo a potential value? The same reason this list produces Aaron Judge and Carlos Rodon as possible values in free agency. Injury risk. Even if you pro-rate out his 2020 season, he’s had just three years with more than 140 games (or the equivalent) played over his six full seasons in the big leagues. Injuries to his neck, hip, finger, knee, wrist, quad and recurring injuries to his hamstrings make him a risk when it comes to penciling him into the lineup every day. And though the hamstring injuries are worrisome because they can re-occur, his hip injury increases his likelihood of future injury list stints for other body parts more than any of his injuries. The good news for acquiring teams is that we aren’t very good at injury projection. Rob Arthur took his best shot at it for Baseball Prospectus, and found the previous year’s injury information was by far the most important variable in his injury projection model, but that a player who missed 50 days to injury last year would be expected to miss 10 in the coming season. In fact, following his formula for missed time, you’d project Nimmo for around 10 days missed next season, and Judge for around five days. That sounds like a bargain! José Abreu (2 years / $32 million) Yeah, José Abreu only hit 15 homers last year and is 35 years old. He’s post-peak, in decline defensively, and doesn’t have the power he used to. These things are all true, but they’re also the reason his next deal will be short and relatively inexpensive. And the fact of the matter is, he’s still a good hitter. He was 37 percent better than league average with the stick last season, good for 15th-best in baseball last season. You get Abreu because he makes great contact along with his power. Only 15 players in baseball had better slugging and contact numbers than Abreu did last season. Generally, he’s improved his contact rates by swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone, and swinging less overall, which is a trend that older players follow that has been particularly good to him. And even if he did hit the ball a little softer last season than he did before, he did still barrel the ball nearly 10 percent of the time, hit more than half his balls over 95 mph, and hit a ball 113 mph. Here are the only free agents who are even close to all three of those benchmarks, all of which are good numbers in terms of predicting future power. PLAYER | POS | K% | BARREL | MAX EV | HH% Aaron Judge | OF | 25.1% | 26.2% | 118.4 | 60.9% Joc Pederson | DH | 23.1% | 15.1% | 112.8 | 51.8% Jose Abreu | 1B | 16.2% | 9.5% | 113.0 | 51.7% Joey Gallo | OF | 39.8% | 17.6% | 113.0 | 50.5% Gary Sanchez | C | 28.9% | 13.5% | 115.1 | 49.3% Willson Contreras | C | 21.1% | 10.5% | 116.2 | 47.9% What you’ll notice is that Abreu is comp-less in this group if you’re trying to combine power with contact. He’s “only” a first baseman, and perhaps a strange fit as a right-hander, but he can absolutely help a team improve both their power and strikeout rate, and that’s a rare combo.
Agreed. Payroll is a zero sum game, particularly for someone like Crane, who we know doesn't want to exceed the luxury tax. So paying Verlander that much necessarily means that Crane won't pay someone else over the next three years. Most likely that means no early extension for Framber, Tucker or Javier. I'd take a pass on JV as starting pitching is still a strength for the next couple years even without him.
I'm not sure payroll is 100% a zero sum game for Crane. I think he would be willing to pay slightly more for players he trusts (maybe in the $5M-10M range). I think the Astros would run a slightly higher payroll with JV than without JV (unless the Astros are able to snag another great talent).
That's rough giving a 40 year old pitcher $43+ mill a season. I'd pass on that. But if we make a close offer, I would hope he stays. Like 3 years 110 or something I don't know.
I want Vazquez and I want Abreu. If you thought we were good at making contact before, then watch out if we sign these 2 guys. Abreu likely returns to hitting 25-30 HRs playing at MMP, so much improved power over a declining Yuli. And having a .280-.300 hitting catcher who rarely strikes out is going to be quite a delightful adjustment for Astros fans. And he's more than solid behind the plate. If we sign JV as well, we keep Maldy as his personal catcher. Sign Brantley for DH/LF and we are set to win another World Series or 2 or 3.
Sarris is usually a better writer than this. Chas played nearly a third of Nimmo's time in CF and was tied in a counting stat. The way McCormick has played defensively has been a lot better than Nimmo on a per opportunity basis.
This Verlander negotiation sounds exactly like how the Correa negotiations went. Crane makes it a priority, something doesn’t happen quickly, leaks to the media on big salary demands… makes me think Crane is not willing to spend beyond a certain level… and Verlander wasn’t satisfied with the opening proposal. So now Verlander is going to shop and see what he can get. Leads me to believe he’s gone. And I’m fine with that if his demands are excessive.
The Astros could probably spend that money on two bats this offseason and be a much better team for it. Justin Verlander almost costs us the Mariners series on top of the world series to boot. This starting pitching depth is ridiculous. The IB/DH position is not that good.
Nimmo is below average defensively at CF, and his offense isn't that much better than Chas. Not worth the spend or commitment required to get him. I rather platoon Chas and Nimmo.
And if we keep JV, then trading ONE of the others would be fine I just see so many people who want to NOT sign JV and use that money for hitting while also saying we should move one of the other starters for more hitting. I would love to have a better lineup, but if we bring back the entire pitching staff, we are the favorite to win it all again
Would also love to bring Brantley and Yuli back for depth. We would essentially be adding Abreu and Brantley to a dominant world series team.
Why didn't the Mariners play Toro in the ALDS? Especially in that 18 inning game. He's killed us since we traded him over there. I remember at least 2 walk off run/hits alone against us.
