The Rockets going forward from now until next October

Unfortunately, due to the disastrous Russell Westbrook trade, we really don’t have much of a choice other than to try and be good as possible with this core. And we have to do it next season….Hopefully we can land at least Scoot, if not Wemby. Next year could be a truly awful year if we don’t have one of the big two and we strike out in free agency.

We may have to package all of the Nets picks for the next star available, whether it be Durant or Gobert, or who ever. Maybe that would entice Harden to sign back with us.

Fortunately there is a real talent void in the NBA right now and it may be easier to win a ring in the next ten years than it has been in the previous ten.

 

I think Amen Thompson has a chance to make this a "3 person draft" at the top. We'll see. Rockets need more luck to get into that top 3. This lottery pick will be paramount for them. I think Jalen has the special qualities to be a franchise guy but we'll see over time. Jabari has a chance to be a #3 guy like Mobley & Bam.

More than anything, Silas has got to go. I am out on him. Find the next Will Hardy for this team.

I'd like to see KJ & Tari get more minutes but Silas loves Tate/EG too much. Those guys are blocking the path.

 

Just mentioned this in another thread. Specifically with reference to Jabari though. Jabari isn't the type of player you give the ball to and say get us a bucket. He needs sets and screens ran for him to get open shots. So far Silas and the coaching staff have not done this. Pop would know exactly what to run to get the most out of Jabari.

Back to Silas. Silas is a great guy, a nice person. However as a NBA head coach, he's just not it. This team has no identity, no structure and really no leadership. I get that we're in a rebuild, but this team has too much talent to be as terrible as they have been. At some point Silas is gonna go. And whether he's the "scapegoat" or not, it will be justified.

 

Agreed on why we seem to have 0 sets run to generate Smith a look.

Also.... There are times when we his WIDE open. We need to get him the ball.

 

I’m aware. I counted other teams who have tanked using the tear down year as year 1 also. So whether you count this as year 2 or year 3, the fact is this year being just as bad as the tear down year follows the same trend of other tank and rebuild teams. Next year is the year for improvement. The year after should be the big leap into the playoffs.

 

The Westbrook trade was dumb but I don't think it hinders our rebuild as much as people think.

If our young guys are truly terrible again in 2023-24 there's a reasonable possibility that we only really lose our 2026 pick from the Westbrook trade.

 

Ironically enough, Mike D'Antoni would be perfect for this young team. They don't need to be championship caliber, or even good, just able to play as a cohesive unit on offense.

 

Rockets will add 70 million in free agents this offseason, they will be comfortably out of top 4 range in the 2024 draft. Its almost a certainty that we will send a pick in the 6-12 range to OKC.

2025 is a wildcard.

2026 will almost certainly be conveyed.

 

They may have 70 million in cap space. Not really sure they'll use it. I'm not seeing a bunch of good players available in 2023 free agency. Do you see any?

2025 is protected plus we have a swap with the Nets. It's not going to be an issue.

With the age of our players, if we're 'comfortably' away from a top 4 pick in 2024 we're probably on the right track anyway

My point is it's not all doom and gloom when you consider the details

 

In comparison with a recent team who decided they've found their core and pushed their chips in. The Cavs. A recent grad from the tanking class. About two years ahead of us.

Cavs:
2017 50 wins. Before tear down
2018 19 wins 1st year tank
2019 19 wins 2nd year tank
2020 22 wins 3rd year tank
2021 44 wins 4th year - tank ended going back in
2022 ...

Rockets:
2019 44 wins. Before teardown
2020 17 wins. 1st year tank
2021 20 wins. 2nd year tank
2022 ............... We are in 3rd year tank
2023 ............... If comparable, we're supposed to rise up next season. Okc has our pick and we have cap room.

Green and Jabari are promising but still unknown. Year 1 tank we were wishy-washy with Dipo and Wood.

Hindsight 20/20... we had dibs on Allen and Mobley but passed on them. And no, getting Allen would not have ruined the tank. Allen was in their last tank year to get Mobley. Rockets could have gotten Allen and still a Jalen or Evan. In which case we'd had two core pieces instead of one.


As far as team closest to us it's Thunder, Pistons and Magic.

The class behind us is Spurs (and maybe Jazz).

 

I think it all starts with leadership, from the owner, GM/Staff, Coach/Staff down to the players. The owner has to charge the GM with his vision, let's say "to be the best team in the NBA by 2026-27 season". Is that achievable, sure it is, but getting there depends on so many variables. One of the biggest variables is what draft pick we land in 2023. Given Wembanyama is seen as the best incoming player since Lebron, getting that #1 pick could accelerate that vision. The leadership has some control in that they can tank hard to put themselves in the best position for #1, so far our track record hasn't gotten us there yet (maybe 3 is the charm).

Coaching has been discussed at nauseum, but it is surely something that has to be addressed in the off-season if this team wants to build a champion.

Free Agency and trades, takes at least two to tango, but how aggressive/successful we are in the offseason will likely be impacted by our draft position, the coach/staff we hire and the vision we paint for any prospective FAs. There doesn't appear to be many great FAs, so maybe trading for a disgruntled star that fits the new coaches system may be our best bet. If it doesn't happen in 2023, then we look for that opportunity in 2024, and give the new coach a solid year with the kids and building their confidence in their offense/defense.

This year is just going to suck, but my hope is to see some improvement in the players (like we've seen in Sengun, Usman and KMJ) and to enjoy our rookies.

 

Agreed. Except I see Green as a cornerstone.

 

If the Rockets trade all our picks for Rudy Gobert I will go insane. At this point right now Minnesota should be looking at giving away draft picks just to get his contract off the team. That will go down as the worst trade in league history. Rudy Gobert is not even a star. Just gets in the all star time by sheer numbers..


only trade I can see if Gobert for Westbrook. Lol.

 

The young talent on this roster isn’t looking very talented. The best chance for the Rockets to turn things around quickly is winning the lottery. The second best chance is one of Green or Sengun making an uncharacteristic leap over the next year.

Jabari looks to be a role player at best as do all the other young players on this team and there are few chances to move the needle in free agency nowadays.

So yeah, things are looking fairly bleak.

 

I agree with your points but I think it's worth noting that we have been taking "best available" for the last few years and are mostly operating an asset collection strategy. I think that's a great approach to start a rebuild, but i think at some point Stone is going to have to build a team and that means taking a hard look at what players are part of our future plans and which players we can spare to trade for a better suited piece(Ideal) or a future asset(less ideal). I think this is why I advocate for a sooner rather than later approach to our coaching situation with Silas because clearly he isn't the right guy and we can't afford to wait another year to see what we have here. Plus I have already seen our players out of desperation forcing shots because Silas is making no attempt to support them with a system outside of the one that works for Harden and Doncic - we can't let this become a habit that they have to unwind later(more development cost). If I could amend your points a bit -

1.) replace Silas with a proven talent developer(anyone left from the Coach Pop tree?)
2.) trade some of these young guys for players who fit our needs - I think Green, Jabari, and dare I say Eason are off limits, but that's about it.
3.) bring in a few vets in the offseason who can assist in development - preferably a big who is GOOD at setting screens and maybe a real PG.

....btw, I would prefer Houston keep KPJ but only if he can commit to being the league's best sixth man with Houston and not a starting PG. He has been our team's best player so far this season but he is absurdly mis-cast as a PG in Silas' system. Just make him a bucket getter and lean into what he is good at - give him all the old footage of Lou Williams, Vinnie Johnson, JR Smith, Jason Terry, Manu Ginobili, and Jamal Crawford and encourage him to embrace the role he is good at.

BTW, Victor W may help us get better, but we STILL gotta field a real team that complements each other to have a chance to compete and we STILL have to put in coaching who can maximize the talents we have if the org is to have a chance. That's ultimately the problem with teams like the Kings who swing for the fences every year and never build in strategies and capabilities to support the talent they bring in so no one is best version of themselves.

 

Oh come on Nook, I respect your opinion but this is more on the pessimistic side than usual for you. If it's not the worst then it's the second worst case scenario you're describing here. How could things be any worse than the situation you described? Is it even possible it's true?

Green, Sengun and Jabari are going to look terrific in a couple of weeks or so I promise that. The results you're looking at now are the results of a stress-tested roster. All we've learned is that if they have a more difficult than average game/schedule, then they will look worse than they were expected to look especially to open the season that way.

Tanking for the #1 pick is a lost cause. This team is going to win too many games to compete for that pick. The team's highest peaks are going to be 19 November to 19 December and then after the ASB. Mark them down as relevant samples for your projections.

As I said before the season, Stone will try his hardest to get another #1 pick and he has certainly done a great job at that, but it's not going to be enough. You don't want to miss out on a generational player, but there's also only so much you can do to tank before the league fines you. We've already taken every possible measure from coaching complicity to getting rid of as many vets as possible to playing the youngest rotation in the NBA to taking an absurd amount of time to install the full offense and defense.

It's a heavy load on the kids right now but we're going to be shocked at how it propels their growth rather than repels wins.

 

People keep asking for the play on the floor to be organized and for more players to shine, well that's ridiculous. Most of you believe we're going to win 20-30 games... but why the would everything not look like a mess? Can you share examples of 20 win teams where everything looked to its fans like it was being executed well? It just doesn't happen that way. It's an imaginary thing that the youngest rotation starting out on a rough schedule will look like they're managed well.

NO it can't be that they look well organized but we only win 20. The problem with young players is they don't get organized as quickly. All young roster can't be organized, you understand?

 

Mike would also be canned faster than Silas because he would have much bigger contract.