[ClutchFans] How Paolo Banchero would fit with the Houston Rockets

Awesome.

Good writeup, especially like your part about moving younger pieces to fit around the core....

DD

 

"Over the next year, I would like to see a more aggressive front office in moving young players for better fits."

I see both sides to this. If the Rockets go Paolo, it makes sense to try to get players that fit him. On the other side, the Rockets will have max space next offseason, and the Rockets may acquire someone better that doesn't fit with Paolo or Paolo may be the big piece going to another team. I think the Rockets will try to get guys that fit with almost any team instead of players that fit Paolo and Green. Though, 3/D players work with Paolo and almost anyone.

Edit: Also, my guess for ROTY is Murray. He ends up on the Kings, and he's got 3 guys that can get him the ball in an advantageous position. Murray excels at getting into an advantageous position.

 

Banchero may by his prime be an above average defensive player. I will say that if Banchero sets that as a goal I would not bet against him.

 

Nice write-up Clutch. The pros and potential cons on Paolo as well as the concern about spacing, defense and fit with Sengun have now been endlessly debated. This was a nice piece to cap those debates heading into next weeks draft.

but on the whole getting more aggressive moving young players that don’t fit Paolo or Green thing:

I think we have different tiers of players, some which we have a better idea about how good they are, as opposed to others.

We’ve got guys like Garuba who is still a mystery -too early to trade

we’ve got kJ Martin and Tate, better known commodities. Tates gonna be a solid role player in this league but he can’t space the floor. and while KJ has untapped upside, he’s gonna need a lot more development.

Then we’ve got Christopher -possibly our best prospect not named Sengun or Green, but it does feel like he’s stuck behind Green at the 2-guard spot.

my feeling is that it’s still too early to aggressively move guys like Garuba and even Christopher. Their upsides are massive and they both have some versatility. But guys like Tate, and to a lesser extent, KJ Martin are unlikely to be anything more than role players, and even though 2 yrs is not a long time to make that assessment, I don’t think anyone would lose sleep over moving those two. I really like them though
.

 

Good article.

The rockets may see the best outcome by running a big centered offense with either Banchero or Sengun always on the court, operating in the high post making plays for the guards. Jalen seems like a scorer that can get buckets in a variety of ways without massaging the ball.

I do disagree that we're anywhere close to the point of moving out players for a better fit. If we move out a young prospect I'd prefer it be for either another young player or a pick.

 

I like Paolo, and if he’s there that’s who I want them to draft, but he sounds a lot like a bigger and stronger version of Christian Wood to me in a lot of ways. Good offense, questionable defense. His defense needs to improve dramatically or I don’t see him moving the needle that much from the guy they just got rid of. He definitely has more upside, so hopefully he puts it all together, but Silas and the coaching staff need to find a way to get more from our bigs on the defensive side or they’re just rearranging deck chairs.

 

I see them differently. Wood excels at the 3 where Paolo is below average and Banchero has much better handles and miles better court vision and BBIQ. Wood is a selfish black hole while Paolo is a very unique facilitator. Wood just stops the flow of an offense while Paolo will increase it dramatically.

His combination of handles, footwork, court vision and scoring ability especially at his size is very very rare. Unless Chet hits his ceiling Banchero should be the best player in this draft.

 

Thx for finding his college mid range %.


The mid range was listed as a strength in most scouting reports, but I had doubts, since I didn't see the %. The 34.9% and 39.7%, if he's doing that in the NBA, that's not great. Maybe Silas will give him better spacing than Duke. He has to be lot more efficient (or less volume), if that's the case.

With practice can't work on everything, 3pt should still be his top priority. The 34.4% 3pt is much more valuable than his long two mid-range percentages. Those middy % is a con more than a pro.

The old school Carmelo mid range, triple threat stance, might not translate well in today's game. If Paolo was born 15 years earlier, it'd be different.

Based on the chart, his hot spots grows colder as he moves further away from the basket.


On defense, yea agree on all counts.


The shooting might never get to a Jabari. And maybe the rim protect will come? His floor is low/mid. If he comes the Rockets, lot of this will get exposed. A team like the Magic could cover up some of his weaknesses. I'm not against a Randle type of player, but a Rocket 3rd pick, that's tough to swallow.

 

Yeah it’s time for the rockets to start thinking…

What’s our identity??

 

Paulo as an OFF force is this year's version of Cade Cunningham
The total package and polished up to the point of ready to go from day one

If he had the DEF impact and leadership qualities that Cade displayed at OKST, he'd be the consensus #1 overall

Since he doesn't, for me, he's clearly the third best in this class behind 2 guys at the same position who have DEF impact and leadership in spades

Seriously this is as stress free as a top 3 pick can get for me

... unless I hear Ivey's name on THU

 

I’ll give you the court vision and IQ, but agree to disagree on the handles. I don’t see it that way at all. Wood had very good handles. So does Paulo. Doesn’t change anything though, it’s the defense that needs to improve more than anything else. If the coaches don’t scheme better around their weaknesses, the offense is not going to matter very much. I do think that Paulo has better upside overall, I just hope they hold him more accountable for his defense than they did with Christian Wood.

 

I trust Stone, so if he picks Paolo I will trust he is right. My personal opinion is I would rather try and trade up for Jabari or Chet if possible. If not I would like to take Ivey or trade down to a position to take Murray and get a high pick down the road. I really think Murray will perform better than Paolo as a rocket. I love our core of Green, KPJ, and Sengun on the offensive side of the ball. Banchero just gums up the works offensively and does nothing to improve our defense.

 

FWIW nbadraft.net now has it:

1. Jabari
2. Paolo
3. Murray
4. Ivey
5. Mathurin
6. Holmgren

 

They are smoking dick

That website, while one of the oldest and commonly used (even by me) is always way off base when it comes to order, draft express was way better, and the leader of that site was bought by ESPN, so ESPN mocks are the gold standard

ESPN's latest mock

1. Smith
2. Holmgren
3. Banchero
4. Ivey
5. Murray
6. Mathurin
7. Daniels
8. Sharpe
9. Duren
10. Davis
...
17. Eason
...
26. Beauchamp

 

When you add talent like Green and Banchero to the worst team in the league, the question is how the rest of the team will be built around them.... not how they fit with the existing role players. Excellent write up.

 

Let's keep in mind that the value of a 1st found draft pick = 4 years of cost-controlled production + a priority to retain the player at the market price.

I agree that a player like Jabari Smith is a better bet to fit on a championship team, simply by being an above-average shot creator with great defense and off-ball gravity. However, is that worth the max? If not, after the Rookie contract plays out, it's more or less a fair play on the free-agency market to acquire such players.

Yes, if Paolo turns out to be a merely good offensive player requiring the ball in his hands, that would not be good enough. However, even a slightly better chance to be a top-10 offensive player is worth it for a rebuilding franchise.

 

I've watched so much Banchero. Games, scouting films and etc. IDK but I just see it. This guy is going to be an elite player. I believe he will be average defensively and get 10 boards a game.

Green
Banchero
Sengun

KPJ
Christopher
KMJ

Garuba
Nix

is our 8 man core in tiers. Not to mention what we add at #17 and #26. Adding Eason and MJB does a lot to address our perimeter D and we have a 10 man core to build around. Not all of those players will pan out or be here when we turn it around but all of those tiers have depth. For all we know Sengun may be the best player in three years.

 

Yeah. They are both tall and good on offense. But other than that, they’re nothing alike.

 

Sengun per 36 averages 1.4 steals and 1.6 blocks at age 19.

How are people calling him a bad defender or not a rim protector?