Yordan and Bregman can both be quite a bit better. Verlander can be better than Greinke. Our bullpen can be better than the mess it was for most of the regular season. Pena, Meyers and Chaz could have good years. Maldy could be less terrible. Can I say with any confidence any of these things will happen, no, but I can't confidently say any of them are unlikely either.
How did the stats lie? Over the course of his 175+ plate appearances he had a .799 OPS. While he did have 2 DL stints he was physically available for around 125 games. Baker chose to start him in only 38 games.
That's why I used at bats. And... the point was it wasn't his fault he didn't get more at bats. Baker sermingly valued Maldonado's defense and leadership over offensive production. In essence, back to my original reply, Castro's offensive production is what Lee would have to surpass, not Maldonado's.
I'm hoping that after the 1st mont/6 weeks of the season Lee is called up and replaces Maldy. I'm hoping Lee hits around .250-.260, same as with Pena. This would help replace Correa's offense and I think this is being realistic in predicting their numbers. I also know this is unlikely to happen because Click chose to sign Castro to a 2 year deal. This effectively blocked Lee from getting his shot this season.
A more likely scenario is Castro gets traded at the deadline and Lee comes up if he is playing really well in AAA similar to Meyers last year...
Looking out for Houston’s next moves, aside from Conforto, who I like but who might be a questionable fit for the Astros, there are no free agents remaining who warrant a large contract. So Houston’s options for the money they have remaining under the threshold are: 1. Extend a current player to shift some of their future salary to this season. Tucker and Alvarez are the most obvious candidates but Pressly, Garcia, Valdez, Pena, Meyers, and maybe Javier are also candidates. 2. Trade for a bad contract to acquire prospects or draft picks. I don’t really see any team that desperate to shed salary. 3. Save it for the deadline. You never know which players might be available in a few months.
I wouldn’t necessarily call it a “hole”, and I wouldn’t assume it’s all Click’s doing. Correa may have held them hostage, or Crane’s involvement might’ve limited what Click could do. Either way, if Houston comes out of it with having extended 2 players (say Tucker and Javier) to reasonable deals while keeping ~$15M available for the deadline (and adding a draft pick from losing Correa), I wouldn’t think of that as a bad outcome at all.
He's 11th over the last 3 years in RC+ among catchers which is likely a similar rank to OPS+ (RC+ rates OBP a little more than slugging, minimum 500 PAs). Castro may not be as good defensively as he use to be, but among catchers, he's well above average offensively.
The market didn't match up great with the Astros' needs. The only good CFer was Marte and he's 33, overpaid, and already missing time in spring training because of an injury. Mullins and Reynolds weren't traded so don't feel like we missed out there either. I don't think Taylor had any interest in leaving the Dodgers, and Kris Bryant can play a little CF but Minute Maid is massive in CF and he got a nice overpay to play for the stupid Rockies. The best catcher on the market was Gomes. Cubs gave him a 2 year deal which doesn't matchup with the timing for Korey Lee and the Astros love Maldy so it was a fantasy that the Astros would do anything at catcher especially when Gomes isn't that good.Sanchez was traded but no thanks with that defense. Barnhart is a marginal upgrade but with how well Maldy has helped develop the young pitchers I think it was just pure fantasy that the Astros would upgrade the position. I would have preferred the Astros signed Graveman over Neris but it is entirely possible that Neris is better going forward so I will wait and see on that move. I also wanted one more solid bullpen piece, but IF Baez is healthy like Click said then maybe he will be the extra bullpen piece we need. Still wanted a stud lefty and all we are getting is minor league contract guys... Once the Astros got Verlander I did not expect another starter to be signed. The Astros thought McCullers would be healthy pre-lockout and with Framber, Urquidy, Garcia, Odorizzi, and Javier on the roster I didn't expect another starting pitcher to be added. It looks like they did try and get Bassitt when they realized the situation with McCullers but not surprised a deal wasn't able to be made with Oakland. The Correa situation really sucks because of the contract he ended up getting. This is another gamble by Click/Crane. However, if Pena is another rookie stud to come up and surprise like Javier and Garcia then they will look really smart considering Pena is unlikely to make 35 million the next 6 seasons and Correa makes that this year alone...
I think in the end the possibility of having a pre-arb above average or even All Star caliber player at SS was just too much to pass up for Crane and Click. No way they were going to let a super expensive player get in the way of the development of that.
If you believe the Astros weren't willing to do even a short term deal for Correa, the salary constraints were in place pre-lockout and the die was cast. I have a hard time putting that on Click.
Lee is not on the 40 man roster. On fact on Maldy and Castro are. At some point one of them will be unable to play for one reason or another and a 3rd catcher will be needed Lee is the future and needs the nearly every day reps.The team also will be reluctant to start him MLB clock until they have to. Therefore my prediction is: If Maldy needs to be replaced then Lee gets the call If Castro needs to be replaced then it's Papierski. But unless one of the catchers miss time I think Lee plays all year at Sugarland.
All this hate for Click when Crane himself said he was getting involved with the Correa negotiations. Reading comprehension is not strong with several posters on this board.
So - You don’t stay great by paying players top dollar. You stay great by finding the best players before they make top dollar. We’ve talked about this for at least a decade. Carlos was great and did his job. It’s now someone else’s time. This is how we will still be good in five years.
