If the Astros win the WS (and Correa is not horrible), Correa kind of gets into that Biggio/Bagwell/Jeter "more important than the numbers" type of value to a franchise. He and Altuve just seem like the ultimate face-of-the-franchise type players. It will be interesting to see if the Astros value that, and if so, how much and if it gets them competitive. It's disappointing to look back at the spring knowing that the Astros offered 5/125, Correa presumably asked for something like 10/300, and not ever knowing if they could have settled at something like 7/220 or 8/240 or whatnot. Now, it does seem like at least one team will price Correa out of the Astros' range unless he really wants to be here.
Corres does want to stay, but the Astros may look at their pitching staff and realize they can't offer that much to one player when they need to clean that up first. However, I do believe the Astros really did want Correa to stay and are willing to pay over $200/mil for him, mainly because they let Springer go for less than that. There is a chance that the Astros drastically miscalculated how valuable Correa would be in a contract year, but I don't think so. I see 7/$200 mil may be his best offer with the Stros.
I asked this in another thread (I think), but what makes us think they are willing to pay for pitching? They passed on $15MM for Keuchel and Morton (short term deals) and $30MM for Cole. Beyond that, who do they give up on from this list: Lance McCullers Framber Valdez Christian Javier Luis Garcia Jake Odorizzi Forrest Whitley Whoever else is ready in the minors That top 3 is pretty solid, and they already delayed Javier's development by a year by signing Odorizzi and bumping him from the rotation this year. Do we want to delay him or Garcia again? I don't want more Odorizzi level players, and there's no indication the Astros are willing to spend on an ace. Verlander might be the one exception if they can work out a deal there. But beyond that, I'd much rather invest more reliably in the offense and keep letting the pitchers develop - the younger guys need experience and innings to see if they can be solid long-term or not. That said, if 7/$200 is the Astros' best offer, there's zero chance of keeping Correa (assuming no injury/etc in these next few weeks) - he's one of the overall best players in baseball and when you add in his postseason success and vocal leadership, someone will offer way more. 10/300 is a scary but likely number for Correa - so if the Astros want him for fewer years, they probably have to average more than $30MM/yr.
McCullers is signed for a good deal but now has missed 2 of their last 3 post seasons from the ALCS on. Whitley has been hit in the minors and no telling what he may do in the majors when he finally comes up and Javier is a low level starter/relief. If the Astros feel that they can't depend on Garcia then they may not want to spend $30 mil for Correa with a pitching staff of McCullers and Framber and who else? This year, the Astros have the BEST offense in the league and should easily be going to the World Series, but their pitching for the most part has holes and it won't get much better next year without a significant FA signing. Greinke is done and Verlander may not be re-signed and if he is may not be the savior people are expecting. Who knows. Maybe Garcia is okay, Whitley will be a beast, McCullers stays healthy when we need him most and Verlander comes back to be 90%. If the Astros feel that is a possibility then Correa should be in the forecast.
Whatever Correa gets will never make sense from a true value standpoint… unless he becomes this team’s franchise anchor with Altuve. I value Biggio/Bagwell spending their entire careers here even though both were crappy at the end. Sometimes you can’t put a price on that sort of history. Things the Rays/A’s will never have.
Is the pitching staff really full of holes or are we overreacting to a couple of terrible games? They were 4th in the AL this year in ERA. Better than the Red Sox, and better than the Braves, despite them having no DH. The Astros are currently the favorites to win the World Series with 50% odds. The Astros have played 9 postseason games and given up 4 runs or less in 6 of them (2 runs or less in 4 of them). That's without McCullers for 2 starts. It seems like this formula of best-in-baseball offense combined with young pitching is working really well - and should only improve as the pitching gets more experience.
with these numbers being thrown around he may be gone after this year, if they win the title would be okay with it. If they don't I think you keep trying with him, can't just let these types of players go for nothing. There is absolutely no guarantee this team will keep playing so well losing big pieces year after year. Tucker and Alvarez are really good but this core doesn't just come around
And? You'd have Correa in that scenario plus you'd have been better in the meantime. Besides which, no one has any idea what 3-4 years from now looks like. Maybe Bregman and Altuve will be washed up and their money will be freed up. Maybe the Astros will suck by then anyway. Maybe Covid will still be around and have destroyed baseball economics. It seems weird to try to plan for 2025 right now. No one has any idea what the roster will look like by then. It would be like planning for 2022 back in 2017, when Tucker/Alvarez were irrelevant, you hadn't gotten or lost Cole, etc. I think there are like 5 players from the 2017 team on the current team.
That still gives the Astros a near unpresidented 10 year window of contention from 2015 to 2025. Altuve and Bregman's contracts come off the books by then so we're keeping one of them, both if we let all the pitching walk.
^^^Just a bad take right here folks. Bregman and Altuve washed up? Covid destroying baseball economics? Our GM unable to plan for 3 years from now? Guys, this is getting silly.
No it’s not. All are very plausible. Have you been watching the last 2 seasons? Not to mention Click could barely plan for 4 months into the future at one point
Not just that, but Garcia is way past his highest innings pitched ever and is likely struggling in part because of that. Don’t get me wrong, if the ability to add an ace presents itself I’m all in on that. Likely it will not though, I would much rather sign Correa than Gausman, and outside of a trade that is the best available
How about 3 years at 40, followed by a player option of 4 years at 25, followed by a player option of 3 years at 20. Carlos gets 10 million extra to invest the first 3 years plus Texas taxes vs. blue state taxes, His salary gets more reasonable if he decides to stay so we can re-sign Alvarez and Tucker. That’s a front loaded 290 with the option to make much more somewhere else if he stays healthy.
I don't think you understand what the word plausible means -- it means "likely to happen". Bregman and Altuve becoming washed up in the next 3 years is not likely to happen. No responsible GM would plan around that scenario proving true. COVID destroying baseball economics is just absurd at this point. We are well past that risk and if it hasn't happened by now, it won't happen. Our GM not being able to plan for 3 years in front is not realistic -- he's planning for longer than that on a routine basis -- given that arbitration timelines, the length of big contracts, and prospect timelines all extend farther than 3 years. I'm in the re-sign Correa camp because I believe he brings intangibles to the table that are unmatched. I also believe we should allocate our big spending to players at premium defensive positions who can hit. I think that's the lowest risk place to invest our scarce resources. It's still not risk free. At the same time, all is not lost if we do not re-sign Correa. One of Jeremy Pena or Pedro Leon will be a capable player for us. They won't be Carlos Correa, but they will give us tremendous roster flexibility and we will have the benefit of spending money elsewhere.
We need a bonafide ace outside of McCullers. Someone we can trot out there and feel we have a 70-80 percent chance of winning the game. If we keep Correa, we can trade a few of our prospects to get a Cole type pitcher that Strom can make better.
At one point the 2007-2010 Astros had Berkman locked up, Oswalt locked up, Carlos Lee locked up, rookie phenom Pence, on the cusp Luke Scott, dynamic CF Michael Bourn, and eventually made a trade for former MVP Miguel Tejada. Point is, even with guys locked up, all runs come to an end. All windows of contention eventually close. 10 years is beyond anybody's wildest expectations. You maximize the prime years you have the best you can. The team will be vastly different (even if they somehow keep Correa) by the time Altuve/Bregman's contracts are up and Tucker/Alvarez need extensions.
