East coast team with Pinstripes leaves the Mets, Phillies, and Yankees. All three teams are capped out or in the case of the Mets, hemorrhaging players in free agency (140M to 11 players, Stroman and Syndergaard hitting FA). I feel like he's more likely to go to the Mets than the Yankees. Their new owner is by far the richest in baseball and openly proclaimed a desire to turn the Mets into Dodgers-East with the highest payroll in baseball. Don't be surprised if the Mets have a Correa-Lindor middle infield and attempt to fix their problems with a $280M+ payroll next year. Hal Steinbrenner refuses to exceed the luxury tax with the largest revenue in baseball, and the Phillies already spluged hard to build a .500 team. A Cohencidence? I think not.
Excellent interview. A lot of positives in that interview as an Astros fan... including the discussion about the baby and how that changes one's perspective on life (family in Texas), the discussion of state level taxes, and the discussion of the close relationship with Martin Maldonado (also puertorriqueño). Despite the "disrespectful offer" from Crane, the door is still open. I don't think this is a Gerrit Cole situation where we had zero chance. I think there's a 50/50 shot of keeping him -- maybe higher.
It really depends on the top offer he gets. If a NY or CA team offers him 330-10, by virtue of being in Texas, 300-10 matches that after taxes. The only states we don't have a leg up on with MLB teams are Florida, Washington, and Nevada if they get the As. Miami is a big threat if their ownership decides its time to win. Same goes for Seattle. Or we get utterly blown out of the water with 12-480.
Not to get too technical, but the state taxes alone on a $330 million deal in California would be closer to $43 million. And that assumes that CA's tax rate stays flat over the next 10 years, which it probably won't -- it will rise further. With the hometown discount due to family as well as the tax situation, I think a $265-275 million offer from the Astros could carry the day against a $330 million offer from a team in CA or NY. We also benefit from there being numerous high quality shortstops on the market this year.
I don't think he's coming back. I was in the "let him leave" side at the start of the season but have moved to the "pay him whatever he wants" side.
If I was a player today though, my take would be your going to pay me 300m regardless of the tax break, because that's my benefit, not yours. And think that should be the mentality.
Salaries if this board were running the Astros: They're worth a Billion a year. Why 10, why not 100 years? HOF is priceless. 1. Altuve extension - 2025-3030 $105,000,000,000 2. Brantley extension - 2023-3030 $107,000,000,000 3. Bregman extension - 2025-3030 $105,000,000,000 4. Alvarez extension - 2022-3030 $108,000,000,000 5. Correa contract - 2022-3030 $108,000,000,000 6. Tucker extension - 2022-3030 $108,000,000,000 7. Gurriel extension - 2023-3030 $107,000,000,000 That leaves another ~$300 TRILLION toward our QUADRILLION Dollar Payroll. Hey, it's not my money.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/carlos-correa-discusses-free-agency.html “In his more recent remarks, Correa again addressed those preseason contract talks, saying “It was like, ’Take it or leave it; this is what we’ve got.’ And now my value has gone up. If they didn’t want to meet my price in spring training, now that I led the league in [Baseball Reference] WAR at 7.2 and I’m in the playoffs helping the team, I don’t know if they’ll meet my price now.”
That's where it was. After the season, the risk changed as he has another full season. The offer will change, but when you go for the Gold, you get to watch the playoffs on TV.
Of course Crane is saying “all the right things”. (On re-signing Cole) “We’re going to take a run at it,” Crane said. “We don’t know if we can get to where they want to get. [Agent Scott] Boras is tough to deal with.” On the possibility of an extension for George Springer, Jim Crane said "we’ve made that clear to George and his agent and it’s on their timetable now … We love George, that’s one of our core guys and we hope we can get that done and see if that works.” “I think we have a chance, it just depends on where we end up on that and what Carlos wants to do,” Crane said. “Certainly dollars are a factor.” … “I never count anything out,” Crane said. “We haven’t done it in the past. We have a history of doing something in the neighborhood of five (years) is the most we’ve ever done since I’ve been here. Things can change. We’re not counting it out.” … “Carlos is great,” Crane said. “He made a decision to wait until after the season is over. We’re certainly very appreciative of how he played and how he leads the team. He’s a great guy. We’ll definitely be in the mix as the season gets over and it’s time to address that.” He’s gone. Dude’s gone. Enjoy his final [however many] games. Astros offer were a little bit of a slap in the face but 8/10/12 year deals are dumb too (so I don’t blame them there). Gonna be funny to see fans (whoever he signs with) and national media flip after ******** on him the past couple years. Spoiler: PUKE Does Jim need to bring back the pinstripes? Will that help?
Just backload a deal to a point in time where we are doing a planned rebuild. Done. Or even a Bonilla deal, be creative!
I agree he's almost certainly gone, but Crane's response to the Correa situation was a bit different than the previous two you brought up.
There's no chance the Astros offer Correa a deal that straight up pays him 33-35 million for a decade. My only hope is that we can tempt him with a front loaded, downside protected deal with an opt out. 10 years 300 million, but 110 million in the first 3 years. These contracts tend to be about ego and high numbers. So even if the raw earning potential may be higher, having a figure as "low" as 300 million may be a non starter. I've warmed to the idea of giving Correa a big contract, mainly because I don't think there's a big chance he becomes and unmovable albatross over the next 3 years if things don't work out. However I still don't think it would be a smart investment. But make no mistake, regardless of the numbers or what my inner pragmatist thinks, I would be over the moon if Correa were extended.
