Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 05:02 AM CDT Monday September 21, 2020 Teddy Hurricane Teddy is centered about 165 miles southeast of Bermuda. It is moving north near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph. It will bring gales and rain to Bermuda today. Beyond then, it will transition into a large, strong, non-tropical low-pressure system before impacting Atlantic Canada on Tuesday and Wednesday. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal. Beta Tropical Storm Beta is centered a little over 100 miles south of Galveston. It is moving west at 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. The system is expected to move towards the middle Texas Coast today. It will bring periods of rain and thunderstorms to coastal and southeast Texas as well as over much of Louisiana through at least Wednesday, if not Thursday. Rain will be heavy in some areas and flash flooding is a concern. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch The remnants of Paulette are nearly stationary several hundred miles south of the Azores. It will move east to east-northeast over the next few days. Conditions are moderately favorable for brief tropical or subtropical development. The chance of development remains 60 percent. Wilfred has weakened to a remnant trough of low-pressure about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is expected to dissipate over the next few days. It is no threat to shipping. Disturbance 48 is weakening to the north of the Cabo Verde Islands. Though it exhibits some atmospheric rotation, it is lacking sufficient moisture. It has been moving slowly north in recent days. However, we think a general westward track is likely over the next few days. It is not expected to develop. Tropical Storm Beta Advisory 16 Valid: 03:00 AM CDT Monday September 21, 2020 Current Location: 27.9N, 95.0W Geographic Reference: 105 miles South of Galveston, TX Movement: Northwest at 8 mph Max Winds: 50 mph gusting to 60 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 120 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 120 miles Organizational Trend: Weakening Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 995 mb Key Points 1. Other than a slightly more sharp turn to the east-northeast after landfall, we have not made any significant changes. 2. Slight weakening may occur before landfall. 3. Heavy rainfall is the greatest threat from Beta. Our Forecast Beta appears to be weakening due to the strong presence of dry air. Some of the heaviest thunderstorm activity that is associated with Beta is occurring well east of the center. Heavy thunderstorms offshore southeastern Louisiana are occurring where dense tropical moisture, which is being pushed northward by Beta, is interacting with a stalled frontal boundary. It is possible that the heaviest rainfall today along the Gulf Coast occurs over portions of southeastern Louisiana. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in these heavier rainbands well to the east of the center. Meanwhile, lighter rainbands continue to push into coastal Texas. Moisture levels over coastal Texas have yet to be high enough to result in very heavy rainfall. However, these moisture levels will increase today as Beta moves ashore. Therefore, the threat of heavy rainfall will also increase today along portions of coastal Texas. We think Beta will move ashore around midday today. Though the system is weakening, the central barometric pressure remains steady. It is not out of the question that the storm could experience occasional flare ups of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center resulting in locally heavy rainfall and intensity fluctuations. Beyond landfall, Beta is likely to decelerate and then turn to the east-northeast. There is increasing evidence that the system may turn more sharply to the east-northeast than earlier expected. At this time, we think it will track slowly along the Upper Texas Coast as a tropical depression on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Beyond then, our forecast takes it into Louisiana as a remnant low. We cannot rule out the center of circulation pushing back offshore. However, dry air and wind shear will remain high over the region. Therefore, any possible restrengthening would be greatly limited. It is possible that it could still manage to weaken to a remnant low over the water due to the perpetually limiting dry air that is expected to plague the system over the next few days. Expected Impacts Offshore Northwest Gulf: Squalls, enhanced seas, and tropical storm conditions, at least in squalls, are expected over much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today into tomorrow. The best chance of receiving sustained tropical storm force winds will be north of the center Expected Impacts Onshore Coastal Texas and Louisiana: Flash flooding is likely where heavy rainbands occur. Delays to ground traffic are likely due to ponding on roadways. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over Louisiana. Minor coastal flooding is also likely.
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory 17 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Monday September 21, 2020 Current Location: 27.9N, 95.7W Geographic Reference: 50 miles SE of Matagorda Island Movement: West-northwest at 6 mph Max Winds: 50 mph gusting to 65 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 120 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 120 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 996 mb Key Points 1. Tides are running 3 to 4 feet above normal over the middle and upper Texas Coast 2. Landfall is expected late this afternoon. 3. Heavy rainfall is the greatest threat from Beta. Our Forecast Beta is slowly approaching the middle Texas Coast. Tides are already running 3 to 4 feet above normal along the middle and upper Texas Coast. These tides should remain elevated until Beta moves inland and weakens. Landfall is expected to occur late this afternoon around Matagorda Bay. After landfall, a very slow northward and then east-northeast motion is expected. This will take Beta just inland along the Texas Coast through late Wednesday. On Thursday, a turn to the northeast is likely as Beta moves into Louisiana. Beta continues to have pulses of thunderstorms near the center. However there has been no indication of intensification. Little change in intensity is likely prior to landfall. After landfall, Beta should slowly weaken to a tropical depression. Even if Beta were to move back over the water on Wednesday, Beta is unlikely to intensify as environmental conditions will not be favorable for the storm to intensify. Heavy rainfall remains the greatest threat from Beta. There are currently two areas of heavy rainfall. The first is near the center of circulation. This will be spreading onshore through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon. General totals of 6 to 8 inches of additional rainfall could fall over coastal Texas, though isolated areas could see higher totals. The second area of heavy rainfall is over southern Louisiana as a rainband is persistent over this area. Up to 10 inches of additional rainfall could occur here through Thursday. Expected Impacts Offshore Northwest Gulf: Squalls, enhanced seas, and tropical storm conditions, are expected over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today into tomorrow. The best chance of receiving sustained tropical storm force winds will be north of the center Expected Impacts Onshore Coastal Texas and Louisiana: Flash flooding is likely where heavy rainbands occur. Delays to ground traffic are likely due to ponding on roadways. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over Louisiana. Minor coastal flooding is also likely.
Too much dry air on the east side of Beta for it to get started. Looking like it's just going to be a couple of rainy days for the Houston area. Right now most of the outer rain bands are way north of Houston.
I live in the southwest side of town and it’s already pretty flooded. Wasn’t even this bad in my area when Harvey hit.
Still raining in SW Houston and Keegan's Bayou was already having problems. Perhaps some living in the Meyerland area will have to keep an eye on the water levels.
Harris County Flood Warning System site has some great visualization tools. https://www.harriscountyfws.org/ You can see rain fall totals as well as the elevation of the stream at various bayous and channels.
