Wherever it hits it looks like we're going to have a Katrina/Rita out in the gulf in the next day or so... 2020.
The Euro models are really good mid range, around 48 hours, but not as accurate after. Additionally the Euro model is actually not that great on intensity. I just read a great article about how the NHS forecasts (which look at all the models, plus local weather patterns) are much more accurate than any single model, Euro or otherwise.
Was it this article? https://yaleclimateconnections.org/...e-models-according-to-their-2019-performance/
I don’t know man, I favor the European models, they have always been closer on their models in comparison to the GFS. I always find that the GFS always shifts later to match the European models. Take a look at the UK models which have been on point for Laura, I only speak this as an observation of tracking East Coast hurricanes and storms.
Laura is moving over western Cuba. It was starting to become better organized before landfall. Cuba is not disrupting the storm. Once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico, confidence is very high that Laura will undergo significant intensification. We expect that Laura will become a hurricane by this time tomorrow. Thereafter, a period of faster intensification is likely. The forecast is for Laura to have winds of 110 mph when it makes landfall. This is very similar to Hurricanes Rita and Ike, both of which made landfall over the northwestern Gulf Coast. However, Laura is expected to be significantly smaller than were those two hurricanes. Thus, while the wind impacts could be similar, tidal surges are forecast to be lower, in this case, 11 to 15 feet. It is possible, however, for Laura to make landfall as a category 3 hurricane with winds of at least 115 mph. The forecast track has not changed significantly from the previous advisory. We still expect a gradual turn to the northwest and then more to the north as the likely hurricane moves through the deepwater lease areas and toward the Northwest Gulf Coast. Our forecast lies on the east side of the ensemble probabilities. The thinking currently is that the European ensembles are west biased with this storm. Instead, our forecast follows the deterministic model consensus. Landfall is forecast to occur between Beaumont and Lake Charles. However, we cannot rule out a possible landfall from Galveston Bay through Vermilion Bay. After landfall, the system is expected to push inland and turn to the northeast and then more to the east, bringing heavy rainfall along its path.“
Latest euro is out and it's pretty awful for us. It depicts a major hurricane landfalling into Galveston.
If you are in the Houston area and haven't done much in preparation for this storm, maybe it is time to start.
