I keep thinking about various scenarios and I don't like them at all. We are looking at a global deflationary depression here. This has happened so fast and we have companies that are loaded with debt that seemed responsible before, but when you stop the economy for 6 weeks the debt is impossible to maintain. Even the recovery is not going to happen fast with this level of shock to the system. I wish I would have had a few more days time to evaluate all this in my head so I could have reacted better. I'm lucky with my financial position and that I'm part owner in businesses that have been deemed integral to the supply chain by the govt but I was too slow to recognize the absolute destruction all of this would have. The govt can only buy so much time. That is what we are doing with these stimulus packages. I posted in the main covid thread about a hopeful drug that would speed recovery and significantly help severe cases, but that is just a hopeful longshot at this point. Sure everyone is trying but what if a potential treatment doesn't come for another 6-8 months and we are still on global lockdown. What if this vaccine we are expecting never comes? Let's say this virus is spreading like wildfire over India, Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. What happens then? For right now we are simply in a position of hoping things work out and hoping the government can come in and spend over a trillion (after we have already been running insane deficits) to hopefully hold things together. It's like the great recession plus 9/11. I really hope I'm dead wrong and that this is just me worrying about too much stuff at the bottom of the market, but I don't know. I'm even hesitating posting this because I don't want to sound too alarmist. As crazy and fast as this drop has been I almost feel like it's not bearish enough and we aren't down enough. If you look at the last few months prior to the top we were basically just meandering higher. We aren't even down 20% from that late October breakout. Enough of my rambling late night thoughts.... let's hope for the best and let's hope that drug Avigan works and that they can produce it fast enough.
^ I think you're being a realist. This was handled all wrong from the beginning and continues to be handled wrong. Since this is the stock market thread I'll try and stay on subject. It's a real s#$t show. People can make money on swings but realistically this market is screwed. We've not hit a wall like this since 1929. It's not going to recover quickly. In fact the trickle effect will happen. Businesses hanging on will go under. They won't pay those suppliers, the suppliers will lay off from lack of demand and lack of getting paid. Those debt weak will be the next domino. They will be slow to pay or no-pay which then triggers their own cutbacks/layoffs. That will cause even less demand, less cash to spend for the next set of dominos to fall. Repeat to the bottom. The govt doesn't have enough money to bail out everyone. They can only prop this s#&t show up for a couple of months tops and this will trickle long into the summer...maybe into fall. And then this is just the 1st wave. As we see in other countries, once you lift the restrictions, it starts to reemerge again. According the number of ICU beds and people in this country, this has to drag on until 2037 to not go above the line. Obviously we have to raise the line with more equipment, but realistically even if you double or even triple the equipment in a year, this will drag on for years at the current rate. Edit: I want to add that the size of our country is additionally causing this pain. If you have a small country, it will blow through and you're finished. Your 1st wave is your last wave. The body will build up an immunity to fight off reoccurrences. You might get some reoccurrences, but they will be manageable in a normal, ongoing basis. But when you have a country this size, it will linger and linger because you can only fight this battle in waves.
I think they could go down a bit more, maybe another 20%. But as a long term investor, I'm definitely considering buying some to hold for 2 years or so. Same goes for a lot of the leisure industry, with the exception of cruises. I don't think we're at the end of the cruise business by any means, but I think it may take another year or more before people start booking at a normal rate. At the end of the day, this will all depend on how much of a toll on the labor market. If we're back to business as usual by mid summer and employment didn't take a big hit, I could see the market rebound to pre COVID-19 numbers in 2 years.
Darn it, I wish I saw this earlier... Was too busy making quick gains on a short fund and APRN... Anyway, if this is right on the drug, watch FUJIY Might have missed quick gain but this is exactly news you're looking for to chase, have to be very careful, but news like this is where money follows. Unfortunately sometimes it's highly risky - so I don't stay (unless it's an actual play and not just these crazy deals) but can make a quick 10-50%+. Also, I absolutely agree, whole market is swinging (as stated and probably down), I have most of my money on the side but have made quick gains. Currently other than in/out moves I'm not putting back long long term investments all the way in. Just because of the uncertainty. I'm trying to gain and then put into some long term options - ie gain on small deals and wait to buy the longs for better positions (unless you're not worrying and don't mind year +). Or want to short everything, that's always an option. But I try to be very careful as this is very long way to go. Also, I'm not saying do any of the above, but market is basically going up and then down, so highly volitale and you need to watch it closely.
At some point we have to open up business anyway and just accept that we're going to have a bunch of vulnerable people die compared to having the entire global economy collapse. I hope we don't get to that point, but it might have to happen.
Possibly, but you want to be prepared to make money on the retrace at ~$18 (if it goes that low) and wait/follow news on closures. The stock will do the opposite of what APRN is doing (probably not as fast but it will certainly be impacted from closures). Anyway this is exactly what you want to think about/find - so great find. Ie stuff that's dipping can make you money buying later or if you're really good probably short it. But I typically just buy at a good entry, and determine if it's a short play or something I was waiting for to stay invested long term. I'd be cautious on certain businesses due to the virus, since they need people to be there/signing up.
Ahhh bought in at $7.20 yesterday, got paranoid, and sold out at $9.66 this morning. Now they are well above $13!!
i think WTRH might continue a climb. Got in at $.95 yesterday, sitting at $1.37 right now. Think it could hit $2.00+
Hehe, yeah, I got out too right where you were at, I have been very careful to not stay too long. That's still really good though. I figured ceiling was close, but more closures could cause it to rise more. If I researched it more... I might have stayed but this market has certainly made me less comfortable on longer options. W/ the way it's going could climb more. I basically just set a trailing stop loss again and took profits.
Another company to look at is Vaxart, they produce pill form vaccines and are working on a Coronavirus vac right now. They have a partnership with Johnson & Johnson. They've spiked like crazy If they hit something special, they'll go from $2.4@ to double digits immediately.
Haha, man I know, just absolutely insane, there should be more stocks like this, if you can catch a good entry could try on a retrace maybe (not sure though, I try to avoid it if I missed it), whoever got in at around $2-3 and is up to $18, just amazing. Hopefully some of us did
I know I mentioned BNTX, I wouldn't buy now but.. Wow, I really thought MRNA was the one (and got out as last stated), but BNTX has been wild, unfortunately I didn't buy any... Haha, again don't think like that or buy in at a bad entry unless you feel really good or can watch it. Similar to FUJIY... I didn't buy that one since I missed @robbie380 tip. But it's up decent too atm. We hopefully can find more stuff like that/services. Another one I'm watching is PDS, but don't buy it now... I think as things turn could come back but all depends on virus/energy market etc. Like right now wait for dip but it could make you something, I'm not in on it but have been watching, so just wanted to share. It's definitely risky for now, so definitely not financial advice or something, I mean I'm not even in it until I research it more
