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Caution to the wind
Offseason bounty has Houston's expectations growing wild
Posted: Thursday February 12, 2004 11:24AM; Updated: Thursday February 12, 2004 11:24AM


The Astros are still giddy about Roger Clemens falling into their laps. Staying cool, staying calm, staying middle-of-the-road unaffected is the safe way to be in baseball. The season's way too long, the schedule way too brutal to go about it any other way. You've heard players say it a million times: never too high, never too low. Even keel. Steady as she goes. All that.

Well, in Houston, you can forget about that. Two weeks before spring training begins in full, and more than six weeks before real games are played, the city of Houston has worked itself into a baseball frenzy. It's all-out pandemonium

Astros tickets are selling like ... well, like they were in 2000, when the team christened Enron Field. Last Friday, when tickets went on sale for Opening Day at what is now called Minute Maid Park, fans gobbled them up in 15 minutes. And the ducat-hungry fans of Houston aren't the only ones all worked up. The Astros players are talking like this, finally, is their year. Even the folks in the Astros' front office -- people who normally would rather lower ticket prices than raise expectations to unreasonable levels -- hardly can contain themselves.

It's safe to say that the Astros never have had an offseason like this one.

"I've been in Houston for 20 years, most of my adult life," said Gerry Hunsicker, the team's general manager for the past eight seasons. "I've never seen the city this excited about baseball. I think the signings of [Andy] Pettitte and [Roger] Clemens have left the city somewhat in shock. There's this 'I-can't-believe-this-is-really-happening' feeling."

It's amazing what the signing of a couple of big-time pitchers -- especially a couple of hometown boys -- can do for a franchise. Not to mention what it can do for ticket sales.

"Andy definitely provided a bump for us," said John Sorrentino, the team's vice president for ticket sales and services. "When Roger signed, it just jumped exponentially."

Since the twin signings, Sorrentino has had to add four more sales associates and a few more support people. After Clemens signed, the response was so great that calls to the Astros' offices swamped the telephone system and shut it down briefly. The team has a goal of selling 20,000 season tickets for 2004, and the number already is somewhere above 17,000. Last year at this time, the Astros sold about 13,000 season tickets.

The season-ticket sales are driven not only by the signing of Pettitte and Clemens -- and a team that was in the race for the National League Central for most of last year -- but by this year's All-Star Game, which will be held in Houston in July. Season-ticket holders get first dibs on All-Star Game tickets.

All those season tickets also help single-game ticket sales. When tickets went on sale last week, the team sold more than 58,000 single-game tickets by midnight of the first day. The first home series with San Francisco is not sold out, but it's close.

The long-term goal: break the Enron Field attendance record of 3.05 million in 2000.

Cool? Calm? Nobody in Houston is even close at this point.

"I think as much as anything, this has raised the confidence level of our players," Hunsicker said. "I don't think there was any question this was totally unexpected by everyone, including the players ... To see the excitement on their faces in the Clemens press conference ..."

Second baseman Jeff Kent, who played with the San Francisco Giants in the 2002 World Series, has said that this is the best team he's been a part of at this point of the year. Longtime Astros Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, too, are thrilled with the moves.

"Bagwell did one interview that suggested that management did their part, now it's up to us to do our part," Hunsicker said. "That's a pretty profound statement, especially here where the criticism has been that we haven't always done what we needed to do to put a winner on the field."

It's really been quite a turnaround for the Astros, who started the offseason with a typically maddening (for their fans) cost-cutting move, trading away popular All-Star closer Billy Wagner. On his way out, Wagner ripped the team for not doing what was necessary to bring a winner to Houston. The Astros never have won a postseason series and have missed out on the playoffs the past two seasons.

Any anger from that move, though, quickly gave way to elation with the surprising signing of Pettitte, the longtime New York Yankees lefty. And when Pettitte helped lure former teammate Clemens out of his brief retirement ... well, by the time the Astros hit Kissimmee, Fla., for spring training (the full team reports on Feb. 24), there may be no checking the hopes.

Which is good and bad.

"At this point, things couldn't be any better," Hunsicker said. "But, in reality, you don't win pennants in January and February. Reality will set in in another week or two."

The reality, though, is all good in Houston. The Astros are much improved. With Clemens, Pettitte, Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller, the Astros have one of the deepest rotations in the game. They have an almost surefire replacement for Wagner in Octavio Dotel (opponents hit just .172 against him in 2003). They have one of the top five hitting teams in the NL.

The reality is that the Astros should be really, really good. They're just going to have to deal with all those heightened expectations.

"In my mind, this is a special opportunity that we have to do something great," said Hunsicker, and in the next breath he catches himself. "But, like any year, a lot of things will have to go your way."

So far this offseason, everything has gone the Astros' way. Now, all they have to do is win.


John Donovan is a senior writer for SI.com.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/baseball/mlb/02/12/donovan.astros.opener/index.html

Good problem to have
Astros must pick between three aces for Opening Day start
Posted: Thursday February 12, 2004 12:16PM; Updated: Thursday February 12, 2004 1:37PM


By John Donovan, SI.com


There will only be room on the mound for one of these guys on Opening Day.

Jimy Williams has everything he needs, this instant, to make the Houston Astros the best team in the National League. He simply has to figure out how to get from this instant to this October without falling flat on his face.

And, of course, he has to figure out who will help him take that first step.

Williams is the man with the answer to one of the hottest questions in baseball this offseason: Who will start Opening Day in Minute Maid Park? As of right now, Williams is staying predictably tight-lipped.

So, will it be the fresh-out-of-semi-retirement sure-fire Hall of Famer? The Texas-raised, newly acquired 21-game winner? What about the two guys who carried the Astros last season?

It's a nice little dilemma to be facing. In fact, there's not a big-league manager worth his lineup card who wouldn't trade in his best buddy bench coach to struggle with something like that.

"We've talked about it. Certainly, Jimy and I discuss any major decision like this," said the Astros general manager, Gerry Hunsicker. "But I believe the manager, ultimately, should have the right to make this decision. There are a lot of interesting angles that go into this decision."

Like ...

Do you go with Roger Clemens? The 310-game winner came out of retirement -- if you can call it that -- to sign a one-year deal to help his hometown Astros get over the hump. He's coming off a year in which he started 33 games, won 17 of them, pitched 200-plus innings, struck out 190, had an ERA under 4.00 and ... well, heck, he's Roger Clemens.

Do you go with Andy Pettitte? Another local boy done good, he won 21 games last season with the Yankees. He is not in Randy Johnson's class, but Pettitte will be one of the top lefties in the NL. Pettitte signed a three-year contract, so the Astros might want to showcase him as the ace of the now and of the future. Plus, he's the only lefty here.

What about Roy Oswalt? Yeah, a tricky groin cost him a lot of time last year -- he made only 21 starts -- but when he pitched, he was the team's best starter. He had surgery in October, so he should come back fine. Remember, too, that he won 19 games in 2002. He's only 26, his arm is live and Williams knows him.

Where does Wade Miller fit in? The staff workhorse, the battling righty started 33 games last season and struck out nearly eight hitters for every nine innings pitched. He doesn't go as deep into games as his critics would like, but he's a power pitcher with a live fastball and a good changeup who could thrive with Clemens around.

One of the advantages that Oswalt and Miller have going for them -- some may think -- is that they've pitched before in Minute Maid Park, with its short (315 feet) left-field line. But Hunsicker doesn't see the home park as much of a factor. He said the park's image as a hitter's haven never came up in negotiations with either of the team's new aces, so it shouldn't matter now.

"I think that's more a factor for the national media than it is for the players that play here. If you do a statistical analysis of this ballpark since then, it's settled back to the middle of the pack," Hunsicker said. "It certainly wasn't the offensive Mecca that some people thought it was."

Oswalt may have made Williams' decision a little easier recently when he said that Clemens, given his Hall of Fame numbers, deserves the spot.

But Williams, speaking at a banquet last week, was not biting. He'll save the announcement until he's seen all the pitchers in Kissimmee, Fla., for spring training.

"You can kind of put them in a hat and reach in there and take out any one guy and they'd all be outstanding Opening Day pitchers," Williams said. "But I don't like to do it without having talked with these guys."

In the end, Williams' pick probably won't matter all that much. It's a long season, after all. The Astros will count on all four of those pitchers -- not to mention No. 5 Tim Redding and a bullpen now anchored by Octavio Dotel -- to get them to October.

Still, the fans care. Opening Day for the Astros, April 5 against the San Francisco Giants, is in Houston. It sold out in 15 minutes.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/baseball/mlb/02/12/pettitte.minutemaid/index.html

Friendly confines
Pettitte faces life after Yankee Stadium, where lefties rule the roost
Posted: Thursday February 12, 2004 11:48AM; Updated: Thursday February 12, 2004 11:48AM


By Jacob Luft, SI.com


Good times: Andy Pettitte in the home pinstripes was usually bad news for opponents.
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Pettitte's Career Home/Road Splits
W L IP H HR BB K ERA
H 81 30 914.2 908 68 249 658 3.46
R 68 48 878.0 993 75 330 617 4.44



Now that Andy Pettitte is home in Houston, how much will he miss the only baseball home he has known?

Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch has been good to lefties, whether they're swinging from that side (Babe Ruth, Roger Maris, Jason Giambi) or throwing (Lefty Gomez, Whitey Ford, Ron Guidry).

Pettitte enjoyed a significant advantage as a southpaw in the House that Ruth Built. But that is an advantage he gave up to sign with the Astros, who play in the bandbox currently known as Minute Maid Park, where the left-field Crawford Boxes are little more than a one-hop throw away from home plate.

Pettitte's lifetime record at Yankee Stadium is 81-30 with a 3.46 ERA. On the road, it's an average 68-48, 4.44. Many of his peripheral numbers skew heavily in favor of Pettitte the Yankee Stadium pitcher.

Fortunately for the Astros, the same cannot be said of Roger Clemens. In four seasons as a Yankee, the right-handed Clemens gave up more home runs per nine innings (0.99) at home than on the road (0.92). His ERA wasn't much different (3.79 home; 3.92 road).

The news isn't all bad for Pettitte, though, not by a mile. He is coming over to the National League, where the DH gives way to feeble-hitting pitchers.

In 2003, No. 9 hitters in the American League batted .244, with an on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) of .645. Those aren't exactly knocking-the-cover-off-the-ball numbers. But look at what pitchers did at the plate in the NL last season: .141 average and an .343 OPS. Overall, the No. 9 spot in the NL (including pinch-hitters) batted .184 with a .483 OPS. That is still markedly lower than what Pettitte and Clemens dealt with in the junior circuit.

Going, Going, Gone
HRs per game at Minute Maid
Year HR/G Rank
2000 3.28 1st
2001 2.84 3rd
2002 1.96 18th
2003 2.30 8th


Also working in the Astros' favor is the fact that Pettitte and Clemens throw their fair share of groundballs and pick up a high number of strikeouts. The fewer balls that are in the air, the fewer that might find themselves into those pesky Crawford seats. And if batters can't put the ball into play at all, they have exactly zero chance to hit a home run.

Last season, Pettitte ranked fifth in the AL in groundball/flyball ratio at 1.76; Clemens was 18th at 1.27. Clemens rang up 8.08 strikeouts per nine innings (fourth in the AL). Pettitte was sixth at 7.78 K's per nine innings.

Even at cozy Minute Maid Park, those numbers make Pettitte and Clemens a pretty nice pair of pitchers to have around.