Next moves for the Rockets: How Houston keeps contending

We dont. That was our last chance and we surely arent taking pointers from the dumb****s on espn

 

They are going to end up signing some 3rd rate free agents who get cut mid season because nobody in the NBA with talent wants to come to this team anymore for some reason.

 

Tank for Zion

 

Can we trade Paul+Capela for Unibrow Davis?

 

A year removed from losing to the Golden State Warriors in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals, the 2019 Houston Rockets suffered a similar fate -- this time one round earlier and with the Warriors not having their best player available in Kevin Durant.

Here's what the future holds for Houston: The same starting five returning, but with financial restrictions on how the back end of the roster is built.

Now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing the Rockets this offseason.

The future of the roster, and what's next
There will be no July 1 meeting with star free agents for Houston. Despite having one of the most creative front offices in the NBA when it comes to manufacturing cap space, the Rockets don't have that option this summer.

With Year 1 of the James Harden supermax set to begin, coupled with the $38.5 million Chris Paul salary, Houston will enter free agency $8 million below the luxury tax. Even in the unlikely scenario that the roster is gutted with Harden and Paul being the lone players remaining, Houston only would have $22 million in room left. That's not enough considering that the Rockets would have to replace three starters in Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker and Clint Capela, plus build out the bench.

The positive side: Houston returns the same starting five that once again pushed Golden State in a close series. But now the Rockets face restrictions in how they build their bench. While they bring back five reserves, only Nene saw minutes in the postseason, with Chris Chiozza, Michael Frazier, Gary Clark and Isaiah Hartenstein shuttled back and forth from the G League. Houston also does not have a first- or second-round pick in June, eliminating that low-cost option.

The financial obstacles don't mean there isn't work to do for the Houston front office. A second-round loss to Golden State proves that.

Here are the options for the Rockets this offseason:

Own free agents

Besides maneuvering to get under the luxury tax, GM Daryl Morey's best work during the season was the late-December addition of Austin Rivers, followed up three weeks later by signing Kenneth Faried. The two veterans, both bought out of their contracts, were low-risk signings who helped stabilize the bench and provided an insurance policy with the injuries to Paul and Capela.

Their stints in Houston will likely be short-lived. Because they signed one-year contracts, Rivers and Faried have non-Bird rights, limiting how much they could sign for ($2.6 million for Rivers, $2.8 million for Faried). The same holds true for restricted free agent Danuel House. Signed at the end of the season, House has non-Bird rights and cannot sign a contract that exceeds $2.0 million.

Electing to bring back veterans Iman Shumpert and Gerald Green will come at the discretion of the team rather can cap rules. Shumpert has Bird rights allowing the Rockets to exceed the cap to re-sign him. With the Kings, Shumpert averaged 26 minutes per game and was a valuable veteran presence for a young roster. In Houston, his minutes dropped to 10.6 on average in four playoff appearances. After signing back-to-back minimum contracts, Green has early Bird rights allowing the Rockets to spend up to $9.7 million on the 33-year-old. Like Shumpert, Green has seen a decrease in minutes from the regular season to the playoffs.

The Rockets will need to weigh the value of bringing back Shumpert and Green vs. replacing their roster spots with minimum contract options.

The exceptions: tax, minimum and trade

Barring a trade to clear out salary (or in the case that Nene opts out of his $3.8 million deal), the Rockets will have the $5.7 million tax midlevel and minimum exceptions at their disposal. How the Rockets go about spending the tax exception comes with two concerns:

• The balancing act of staying under the tax threshold
  
  
• Not having the exception available to sign either a second-rounder or undrafted player to a contract greater than two seasons.
  

When it comes to the tax, using the full taxpayer midlevel exception and filling the roster with minimum players would put the team $1.5 million over the line. However, Houston did enter this season $11.7 million over the tax -- faced with a $20.5 million penalty -- only to make a series of trades at the deadline to go under.

The seven trades during the 2018-19 not only saved Houston $27.4 million toward the luxury tax but also produced nine trade exceptions. Those exceptions -- which range from $3.6 million to $955K -- can be used to acquire a player in a trade or make a waiver claim. The exception does not allow Houston to sign a free agent.

Own players

Hitting the roster overhaul button is not a direction the Rockets should take.

Beyond the $77 million owed to Paul and Harden in 2019-20, Houston has four players on tradable contracts in Gordon, Tucker, Capela and Nene (if he opts in). Gordon, Tucker and Capela rank among the best bargains in the league. Trading them would create limited cap flexibility, and it's unlikely a deal would net a better roster around the star backcourt.

The expiring contract of Eric Gordon
It would have been easy to group Gordon in with the free agents who were overpaid during the cap spike in 2016 (like Luol Deng, Bismack Biyombo and Solomon Hill). At the time, the question was not if Gordon could help the Rockets on the court but if he could stay healthy. Gordon was coming off a five-year stint in New Orleans that saw him miss 170 games due to injury, leading to an average of 44 games played each year.

Three years later, Gordon has missed a total of just 32 games. His four-year, $52.9 million contract is now a bargain. In his three seasons with Houston, Gordon ranked in the top 10 among shooting guards in ESPN's real plus-minus twice and cemented himself as a key player next to Harden and Paul.

Gordon is now entering the final year of his contract in 2019-20. He met the extension criteria last summer and was eligible to sign a three-year, $52.5 million deal. That same extension is still available for the Rockets to offer, but now with $23 million more in guaranteed salary.

As we outlined with the Spurs and DeMar DeRozan, holding off on a new contract would see Gordon join an average-at-best 2020 free agent class when the salary cap is projected to reach $116 million.

Gordon does have leverage in waiting another year. The $100 million in committed salary to Paul, Harden and Capela once again has the Rockets backed into a corner when it comes to signing players in free agency. Losing Gordon would leave Houston with just the $9.8 million midlevel exception to replace him.

Summer cap breakdown
Shumpert or using a combination of the minimum and midlevel for open roster spots.

Taking a conservative approach in free agency and just using the minimum exception leaves Houston right at the $132 million tax threshold.

Brandon Knight to the Cavaliers, Houston cannot trade its 2020 first-rounder until after July 1.

Extension candidates
Along with Gordon, Tucker and Nene (if he opts in) are extension eligible as well.

Tucker can receive up to a two-year, $23 million extension on top of the $16.4 million left on his contract. The $7.96 million cap hit in 2020-21 would need to be fully guaranteed

The draft assets
The Rockets do not have a first-rounder (owed to Cleveland) or second-rounder (owed to New York) in the June draft.

Houston owns all of its own future first-round picks starting in 2020.

 

Well, if we would have traded all those assets for Lillard or Kyrie instead of Paul, where would we be now?

 

You know we werent even the clear cut number 2 team this year right ? Those new teams will just get better and we will just get older. And dont count on us fixing any of those flaws with the penny pinching ownership.

 

I would just get Ariza back and run another two years and then rebuild.

 

We just have to hope Butler wants to be here. I don't see what other moves we can do that would help us enough. The Warriors will probably be less good but other teams will be better, if we stay the same i don't know, we will be ok i guess, but we're an old team, Chris is going to get worse, PJ is 33/34...we need an upgrade and to get younger, more athletic.

 

I don’t trust Morey to bring in a quality player to help this team. I was looking at the list of free agents and there are plenty of guys that can help this team. We need to get bigger real fast. When need taller players that can mix it up in the paint, grab rebounds, and score. Darius Miller from New Orleans is s good example of what we need, yes, he’s a FA too. The kids can stroke it from long range, plays great defense, any he’s 6’8”. Sadly, I suspect Morey will go after another 6’ pg again. Hell, even a tough guy like Jared Dudley would help this team. Another guy that can shoot and plays his ass off. Nope, I don’t see Morey song jack **** to help this team get over the hump. He’s pretty much screwed this team by signing Chris Paul to long-term contract. If somehow Paul could be moved to bring in a player that would be great but any team would have to be absolutely stupid to take that contract.

 

Fuq contending!!
We tank for the next Olajuwon and save Tillman with even more luxury tax dollars!

 

Get a taller more reliable guard next to Harden on a decent contract. Ingles or Thompson (if he wants out and they let hi go). Thompson is probably not going to happen without getting rid of Paul's contract.

 

**** the Rockets...
No more energy for these heartless bums

 

Butler

 

If we had those guys, maybe we would have won game 7 last year since Paul got injured again anyways. Lou Williams might have hit several 3's rather than going 0 for whatever from 3.
Now next year, Paul will be playing half of the season again and put up average numbers. Great return on investment for 40 million.

 

Lmao this team is built on a giant gimmick. I was a staunch defender of their style but after this? Proof is in the pudding. This is losing basketball.

We were better off when Durant was there. At least we could plead ignorance. We have the data we need that this isn’t the way to win. Spare me the regular season accolades. Won’t buy into this fraud style anymore.