Agreed. Which is why realistically I don't think the rest of the regular season should matter all that much, apart from getting/staying healthy. I think the hole's a little too deep to catch the 3rd spot, so might as well play into the 6th spot if at all possible. Good franchise history with that seed obviously too.
Well, how do explain "participation trophies" for losing to a five year old when you are "rewarded " for losing?
An obvious reason is just probability. Only two teams pre- or post-merger have ever won with less than a 3rd seed: a Russell-led Celtics with the 4th seed and a Dream-and-Clyde-led Rockets with the 6th. As an aside, 3rd seeds winning is a lot more common in the past couple decades. Looking at the bracket above, the Warriors will (presumably) be the number 1 seed. One school of thought says that facing them earlier means we're not so worn out by the time we get to the WCF if we get the 4, 5, or 8 seeds. It's a novel idea, and it potentially makes some sense, but it is purely hypothetical. Also, home court advantage is real. I tend to discount it, but the gamblers don't. It's not as good for the Rockets as it is for the Jazz or Warriors, but it's still there, so seeding in the upper half of the field is obviously better overall in the playoffs. Personally, I'd rather get it over with early with the Warriors, but the data just says that's a miniscule-percentage-chance road to a championship.
Good post, never thought about it on that angle. I was really worried about getting the 4/5 seed, but it doesn't make any sense... we will have to face the Warriors anyway if we want to win it all. Maybe I felt that way because of my procrastination issues, or maybe I wanted to face them in the WCF so I could say we got there if we lose. It doesn't make sense if you think about it.
If I thought we could slot safely into 6 or 7, I'd be fine with that. But the conference is closely packed, and we might well find ourselves close enough the edge of 8/9 that, for the sake of a safety margin, we end up playing our way (or being played by somebody else's slide) into 4/5.
i am not a hypocrite and herez my reasoning...if we do beat worriers in the first round we are such a complacent team we are guaranteed losing to whomever we meet next while resting on laureals of defeatying the dynasty
Best teams at the top.......Happy to be on top Worst teams at the bottom...Happy to get a decent draft pick Teams in between........SOL (S#,% Out of Luck) because they are neither.
He might get fired just because he was already here when Fertitta bought the team, and new owners usually like to have their own people in those positions. If Morey hadn't gotten under the tax like he did, and I don't know how many other GMs could have gotten back as much value as Morey did while he was dumping, I think it's likely Tillman would've fired him with an early exit from the playoffs.
The whole having "an easier road" only really works if the Rockets get the 2 or 3 seed. Rockets won't get the 1 seed. Then getting the 6 or 7 seed means possibly playing the Thunder earlier. I think the Warriors will be biggest obstacle of course, but I also think the a series with the Thunder would be draining and very likely to go 6 or 7 games. I think beating them back to back would be nearly impossible given the current roster construction and load on Harden/CP3 to do so. The 4/5 seed just gives the Rockets a missed opportunity to make a mistake against Utah or Portland. (Too many bad memories of matching up with those teams as a 4 or 5 seed.) Given all that, if the Rockets cannot make up ground to get the 3rd seed, then meeting the GSW as the 8th seed could be a really great strategy. EDIT: So I looked up the Remaining game SOS, and OKC and Denver have hardest remaining schedule for the season. If the Rockets can get healthy and their act together, they can easily make up ground to get the 3rd. However, the Rockets seem to consistently play down to bad teams instead of taking care of business. http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/westernsosrg.html
If we faced GSW in the first round last year we would have destroyed them (3-1 before Cp3 got injured?) and we would have won a ring. Tbh the later we meet GSW the bigger their advantage cuz they have 5 stars sharing the load so they are fresher in the playoffs. I think meeting them in the 2nd round is the best chance to beat them.
seeds 5-6 does not give you home court advantage. seed 4 allows for home court advantage only in the first round (most likely). home court advantage means out of a 7 game series, you'll play 4 games at home, as opposed to 3. home games are advantageous as you have better chance of winning at home. you said you're five right?
If we avoid them the first two rounds - Maybe someone else beats them … and we avoid them completely.
Count me in as someone who believes that the regular season matters. Those stats count. Winning implies that all your players are playing better. That your shooters are keeping their 3pt% up. That your defensive metrics are showing a good turnaround with the return of Capela. That Harden stays on track for another MVP. Yes it will still hurt losing to the Warriors, but in the WCF means more than in the second round. Facing them later has a similar attrition effect on them as us. Curry Durant Iggy are all over 30. Klay is 29. Cousins might be pushed beyond his physical limitations going all out for two full playoff rounds. If you look at the 8 team roster that will make the Western conference playoffs, it's the bruiser teams like Utah and OKC you want to avoid. If the Rockets get the 3 seed then you force both those teams to likely play each other, with the winner going on to have the opportunity to get GSW banged up even if they lose. The ideal is Rockets 3 OKC 4 Utah 5 Portland 6. Every incarnation of the Lillard McCollum Trailblazers has been a paper tiger come playoff time. Not a good playoff series win in four years, with the exception of the time they lucked into facing the Clippers with all their stars injured. Nurkic is a pest and gets Jazz-like whistles in Portland, but none of that should matter against a full strength Rockets team. We owe them one too. It's a good confidence boost until making it to Denver's draw where again we have a very favorable matchup. We all should be rooting for that 3 seed.
I know we as fans keep thinking this, but honestly who is that team? Since Durant became a Warrior, no team other the Rockets has even gotten them to a Game 6. And they Warriors even had a Curry coming back from an MCL sprain early in the 2018 playoffs. While think OKC could make them work, but I don't given any realistic chance to beat the Warriors in 7 games. The only reason we as fans have hope the Rockets have a shot, is because this team got so close last year. And if that is the case, why not give the Rockets the best chance to pull that off, meaning health and fresh legs for Harden/CP3. I still think they can get to the the 2/3 seed though, and if you can do that with pushing OKC to the 4th seed. That may allow the Rockets to keep their legs/health until the WCF. If for some reason those seeds become out of reach, the 8th seed would be great.
I want the 2-3 seed because I want to play the warriors in WCF playing them in the second round isn’t the same storyline as finally beating them in WCF and going on to win the finals
You play for the highest seed possible. Settling for the 8th seed over the 3rd/4th seed is idiotic. Why would you rather play Golden State when they have fresh legs? The WCF is ideal. Take the chance on somebody else knocking them out in the second round or ya playing them in the WCF when they aren’t 100%. Injuries are unpredictable.
5 games behind the 2 seed.........NOT HAPPENING 4 seed is most likely the highest this team goes.... deal with it
The only time GSW has been vulnerable is when they haven’t been at full strength. The only way to increase the chances of that, short of them having a key player out already is to make them play more games before you face them.
