1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

The Odds Of The Rockets Missing That Many 3s? 1 In 72,000

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by KingCheetah, May 29, 2018.

  1. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2002
    Messages:
    56,351
    Likes Received:
    48,261
    The Odds Of The Rockets Missing That Many 3s? 1 In 72,000

    Considering everything that had taken place earlier in the series, it would’ve been hard to imagine the Rockets having a better start than the one they had in Monday’s Game 7.

    About midway through the second quarter, Houston had held Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green to 1-of-7, 2-of-6 and 2-of-6 shooting from the field, respectively. Klay Thompson opened the game hot — and was 4-of-5 from the field — but his effectiveness was dulled to some extent because he’d uncharacteristically landed three fouls in the first four minutes of action, forcing Steve Kerr to yank him early. Meanwhile, Houston found a comfort zone from deep, hitting 6-of-13 threes. And even when the Rockets misfired, they often outworked Golden State, strong-arming offensive boards on nine of their 19 missed shots.

    Houston had a 42-30 lead with 6:13 to go in the half as likely league MVP James Harden ducked behind a Clint Capela screen for a 3-point try over the outstretched arm of Green. The shot, a miss, didn’t seem significant in that moment. But what would follow — 26 more missed threes in a row, the longest stretch of missed triples in NBA postseason history — turned out to be one of the biggest outliers in recent memory, one that will haunt the title-worthy Rockets now that they’ve been taken out by a Warriors team that they had right where they wanted.

    Full Article:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-the-rockets-missing-that-many-3s-1-in-72000/
     
    deb4rockets likes this.
  2. Karolik

    Karolik Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2010
    Messages:
    5,405
    Likes Received:
    151
    We choked .
     
  3. topfive

    topfive CF OG

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2002
    Messages:
    19,042
    Likes Received:
    37,446
    Never tell me the odds.
     
    RyanB and xaos like this.
  4. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2003
    Messages:
    33,438
    Likes Received:
    31,028
    It was the Hurricane Harvey of 3-point shooting. Also, already posted. :)
     
    REEKO_HTOWN and KingCheetah like this.
  5. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2009
    Messages:
    17,611
    Likes Received:
    27,244
    Might be a good idea to hire guys that are proficient in outside shooting. Not guys who can shoot the shot, but guys that consistently make the shot.
     
    saleem, deb4rockets and HP3 like this.
  6. basketballholic

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    17,516
    Likes Received:
    4,170
    Nobody believes this was the one game in 72,000 for the Rockets to shoot this bad. There's a myriad of factors here.

    1. Fatigue. 100th game of the season.
    2. Fatigue. Too many minutes played in recent games.
    3. Fatigue. To many heavy minutes in the game.
    4. Pressure of elimination/advancement.
    5. Missing key playmaker.
    6. Best shooter in a funk.
    7. Officiating not calling close-out fouls.







    8. Oh.....And the opponent defense might have had something to do with it too.
     
    saleem likes this.
  7. Boney Garcia

    Boney Garcia Member

    Joined:
    May 16, 2018
    Messages:
    24
    Likes Received:
    17
    Rumor has it that the rims and ball are rigged somehow with magnetic technology controlled by the refs
     
  8. Yaaz y2k

    Yaaz y2k Member

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2017
    Messages:
    43
    Likes Received:
    21
    FAKE SPORT ..THEY TOOK IT FROM US IN THIRD AS PLANNED...GSW TO GET MAJOR INJURY AND LEBRON WILL WIN TITLE..ALL SCRIPTED LIKE WWE...
     
  9. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2014
    Messages:
    72,935
    Likes Received:
    111,124
    somehow this doesn't help. But interesting to know. Thanks for posting KC
     
    KingCheetah likes this.
  10. ipaman

    ipaman Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2002
    Messages:
    13,026
    Likes Received:
    7,792
    Yea well except for the fact that we didn't. Harden hit one that was wiped and he was fouled on two others. That's at least 3 and combined with the moving screens and fastbreaks from misses it was enough. Truth is those expected 9-12 points for that never happened and moving screen 9 points against was enough despite the poor shooting. But poor shooting, horrible officiating, and injuries was just too much.
     
  11. chinesemamba

    chinesemamba Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2018
    Messages:
    248
    Likes Received:
    346
    stanley cup > nba finals this year.

    It is proven, this is the first year that golden knights got into the league? and they are going to win it all. ALL sports are extremely RIGGED if there's a series. On to football season, lets go texans!
     
  12. TheRealAllpro

    TheRealAllpro Morey only fan

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2012
    Messages:
    5,842
    Likes Received:
    4,999
    I don't think I'll ever get over us not hitting just 4-27
     
  13. yixiixiy

    yixiixiy Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2010
    Messages:
    2,595
    Likes Received:
    4,295
    Seriously flawed methodology.

    - Assuming all such shots are independent.
    - Not taking into account the auto-correlation resulting from momentum (and lack thereof), fatigue etc

    In reality those consecutive bricks are much more serially correlated than the same shots from different games, hence much higher probability that such a fiasco happens.

    Particularly after repetitive whistle rapes from that scumbag Scott whatever Foxter.
     
    sirbaihu likes this.
  14. Manny Ramirez

    Manny Ramirez The Music Man

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2001
    Messages:
    27,573
    Likes Received:
    4,123
    I would love to re-create all 27 shots with the people that took those shots and under the same conditions (meaning if someone was guarding them, shooting from the same spot, etc.) and run this 10 different times. It would not surprise me if there is at least 4 times out of 10 where we hit at least 12 of these shots or more.
     
  15. Elie#17

    Elie#17 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 1999
    Messages:
    577
    Likes Received:
    42
    Many analysts are talking about the need to improve our shooting efficiency. We had too many volume guys this year and not marksmen the likes of Klay and Steph.

    Just sorted the tops in NBA from this season-- Any ideas of trading for the following?

    Darren Collison - 46.8% on 96 makes
    Reggie Bullock - 44.5% on 125 makes
    Otto Porter Jr. - 44.1% on 138 makes
    Joe Ingles--- not happening
    Klay Thompson
    Kyle Korver
    Anthony Tolliver- 43.6% on 159 makes
    Jayson Tatum
    Buddy Hield - 43.1% on 176 makes
    Al Horford
    Doug McDermott 42.6% on 92 makes
    E'Twaun Moore- 42.5% on 128 makes
    KAT
    JJ Reddick - 42% on 193 makes
    DJ Augustin- 41.9% on 114 makes


    .....

    First Rocket is Ryan Anderson 38.6% on 131 makes... Not sure he even took a single shot in the play offs.
     
  16. RoxDaBeard

    RoxDaBeard Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2013
    Messages:
    249
    Likes Received:
    134
    9. Playing an opponent who is basically half of the USA Olympic Team
     
  17. Nook

    Nook Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    54,297
    Likes Received:
    113,107
    This.

    If the Rockets "choked", they would not have defended as well as they did.
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now