I think the Aiken part is unfair. I'd say they were really RIGHT on him. Obviously no one knows what Aiken would have been if he'd been healthy--so it's hard to argue that they were right or wrong on a healthy Aiken. But he unbeknownst to everyone at the time of the draft he wasn't healthy. And the Astros stood firm--if the face of enormous public pressure--in not signing him to the full amount due to his health concerns. They were right on that. And it was a key decision in what lead them to the top.
Luck has a big part in it as I mentioned earlier that lack of lower round guys producing was possibly luck. Looking through the Astros roster, I see a lot of 1st round picks or close to it, free agents (international and domestic), and guys acquired in trades. Gattis is only major player on roster I see that Astros got that most of the value used to acquire him came from a lower pick drafted by Luhnow. Martin and Rogers were also picks used in trades for Verlander and Cole. Astros have done very well with early picks overall (my guess is the best). After that, nothing really to brag about except that they were able to pawn some of them off to other teams for better players.
Anyone listening to Jim Crane on 97.5 with John and Lance? Good stuff. Crane pretty much answers everything, not holding back much. Nice insight.
And still these guys waiting for jobs who could help Houston: Lucroy Hosmer Duda Lind Morrison Walker Moustakas Frazier Dyson Jackson Jay Cain Gonzalez Martinez Arrieta Darvish Holland Watson
I think it's a little early to close the books on some of the prospects we traded. Guys like Brett Phillips, Daniel Mengden and Tyler White could still become really good players. Jason Martin, Tony Kemp, and Jon Kemmer have been great in the minors, but have yet to be given a chance in the majors. Not saying they will become a wave of stars, but those drafts can still produce some quality big league production.
I’m bad at recaps, but something just stood out a bit. John asked if JC was nervous that Boras has all of the Astros big players. Crane said that Boras is very smart and he gets to the owners. Crane says he pushes him back to Luhnow. He said the guys are going to get paid. I think he said they can pay big money for the guys, but it’s important that they get it right. I knew Crane tried to buy other teams, but had no idea that he was in on the Cubs and Cardinals along with the Padres in about a 4 year span. When asked if Crane was nervous or thought about caving on “the plan” early on, he said not really. It was tough, but they wanted to stick to it. They had zero money to spend early on due to not having a tv deal. JL was the one who came up with the rebuild plan. He said it was not as easy as people think, but he thinks there will be other organizations that try it. Crane said that Altuve was the one that continually pushed Marwin to get better last year. Apparently Altuve was on MG non-stop AJ looks at the data like crazy before and during the game. AJ has total control and will go against the numbers if he has that gut feel. Verlander gets his off day treatment in the dugout so he can watch the game. Other pitchers followed suit. The way Verlander works was just as big as his play on the field for the younger guys. In short, Crane mentioned two or three times that Jeff missed in the draft a few times. They were obviously happy with hits like CC and Bregman, but they did miss. On more moves, they are continuing to look at FA’s if it makes sense. There are guys in the minor league system that they are not letting go. My guess is obviously Whitley and Tucker. Sound like they aren’t looking too hard at FA’s unless the price is right. He likes the team right now. Crane thinks that good pitching will beat good hitting and referenced the Yankees because John asked about their addition of Stanton. I know i missed a ton. Edit: said they tried to land JL before the original deadline, but couldn’t get the players right. He said they were a little lucky that a couple deals they thought they had done didn’t go through or else they would not have been able to get JL.
Free agent predictions: Lucroy Diamondbacks Hosmer Padres Duda Mariners Lind Rockies Morrison Twins Walker Mets Moustakas Frazier Yankees Dyson Rockies Jackson Diamondbacks Jay Rangers Cain Giants Gomez Orioles Gonzalez Astros Martinez Red Sox Arrieta Cubs Darvish Yankees Holland Cardinals #1845
I really hope we acquire Lucroy still. Feels like there is a hole at C and at LF. 1. Springer CF 2. Bregman 3B 3. Altuve 2B 4. Correa SS 5. Gurriel 1B 6. Reddick RF 7. Gattis DH 8. Gonzalez LF 9. McCann C Bench: C Stassi? OF Fisher? UT White? OF Marisnick Of course that's still an amazing lineup...but adding Lucroy or Duda or someone else with some pop would go a long way. SP Verlander SP Keuchel SP Cole SP McCullers SP Morton Peacock McHugh (I think he gets dealt, personally) Rondon Smith Devenski Harris Giles We have a ton of guys on the bubble still - Reed, White, Kemp, Davis, Fisher, Stassi on the position players side. Paulino, Martes, Hoyt, Sipp, Perez, Rogers, Armenteros, Gose, Gustave, Deetz, Guduan on the pitching side. Wonder what we will do with all that AAAA depth.
Just a small recap from the interview from Jim Crane this morning. A lot of guys are already in Florida working out. At least 8 are already there putting in work. Talked about Bergman getting everyone pumped up after his homerun in the Boston series against Chris Sale. Talked about how the lineup was able to hit the elite closers throughout the playoffs. Altuve kept pushing the team to do better. Talked about Beltran’s impact on the team. Didn’t have a great season but he kept the team stabilized and worked with the players when they were struggling. With Boras – said he likes to work the owner’s ego. Interesting Said he they won’t be able to keep everyone because it would bankrupt the team. They’ll try to keep as many players as they can. They want to do smart deals. They will try to pay the players as much as they can and when they can pay them. Can’t really give out 7 to 10 year deals. It’s important not to do long term deals because it can handicap the team. GM’s are getting smarter and they realize past 4 or 5 years, it impacts the team. They are willing to do moves like the Justin Verlander but they have to get them right. Said the arbitration isn’t a great process with the player sitting in the room. The commissioner is trying to limit how long the games are going. Crane wants them to work on it as well because they will lose fans because of length. He is behind it. At the end of the interview, they talked about data and spin rates. How the team uses this data. Still a lot of free agents out there. They are always looking and he won’t say they are done. He does like the team.
I hope Boras gets knocked down a peg or two this off-season. He wants 200 million for JD, Boston has only offered 100 million. Can't wait to see who budges first.
Just a few thoughts on Jim Crane's interview: I think it's clear to say Houston will be lucky if they can keep three of their current core together. I think Altuve and Bergman will be kept for sure. I think Correa is the other piece I think they will try and do everything possible to keep. I don't see Springer still on this team and it's pretty obvious Dallas won't be here. I expect more GM's to be less willing to give contracts that exceed pass 5 years. I think what we've seen this off season will continue to be the trend. I see this a positive for Houston when they go to sign some of their FA's. Jeff Luhnow really has full control of this team. He is really trying to build this organization like the Cardinals but with more analytics.
I think Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will get 7 plus maybe even 10 year offers. As much as I want this off-season to be the new trend I dont see it. I think it is just a weak class of FAs. There is something not to like about pretty much every "star" on the market. Hosmer: Doesnt hit for enough power JD: Terrible defensively...pretty much a DH Moose: On base skills suck Cain: Not enough power. Who did I miss?
Yu: Had TJ surgery within the last 2 years and his last two starts were certified dumpster fires (with us lighting the match!).
Teams haven't given any of those long deals out in reason seasons, not just this one. We had this exact same discussion with Edwin Encarnacion last year and how inexplicably low his deal ended up. Few players are great past 35. Some players become downright terrible quickly at that age, so any years past that are viewed as a major risk. Machado and Harper will get long term deals, because they are hitting free agency extremely young, both being 26. A 10 year deal only takes you into their mid 30's, so barring injury they should still be playing at an extremely high level for most, if not all of their deals. Very few players are phenoms that come up at 19 or 20. Most guys hit free agency at 29-31, which only gives 3-5 years of safe high level performance. So teams are wisely refusing to give a guy an 8-10 year contracts when players are only gonna be good for half of that time, and very well may turn into a giant anchor you tow around for years.
As seal already pointed out, those guys are still pretty young. I think it's going to start trending this way but I agree with you... none of the FA's this off season IMO are worth dropping a ton of money on. Next off season will put this to the test when a better class will be available. I do think Harper and Machado are an outlier based on their age.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see free agents start signing 3-5 year deals with higher AAV instead of 6-7 year deals. If Martinez can get $85M/3yr he might come out better in the end than if he signed for $120M/6yr. The days of guys in their 30s getting $150M+/6yr+ are gone.
