Time quickly running out on the Verlander dream. Odds were slim to begin with, but as each day passes with nary a rumor, they are drawing closer to zero. I wouldn't be opposed to trying to trade for Mark Melancon. His contract probably made it through waivers and his underlying numbers are really good. One more good arm, and you've got an 8 man playoff bullpen of: Giles Harris Devenski TBD Gregerson Clippard Peacock Plus one of Musgrove or Martes That's 4 elite guys (assuming they trade for one), 2 former closers on the downside of their career, one guy having an elite breakout season who can throw multiple innings, and one young former starter with premium stuff having success as a reliever.
That's an intriguing idea. He's having a monster year. Hopefully he can forgive Mike Fiers. It's looking like, between Marisnick and Fisher, it's likely that one or both of them will be less than 'on fire' when the postseason starts. If any current OF goes down, we probably have to call up Preston Tucker, who would barely be replacement-level, if that. Stanton could be a big part of the solution for winning against elite starting pitchers.
Stanton, as in Giancarlo Stanton? He of the 7 years/$285MM contract - that Giancarlo Stanton?... Yeah... even if they needed offense (they don't) - they are not going to pour resources into a money pit like Giancarlo Stanton. He's a terrific player, don't get me wrong - but paying guys $25-30MM/year for their decline years is sure-way to torpedo your franchise.
Musgrove's velocity is up 2 ticks in relief (4 in a game against Texas). With the added velocity causing more spin, he's picking up about an inch more movement. 2 ticks and and extra movement make it much harder for hitters to barrel up when he makes a mistake and he gets more Ks when he hits his spots. His starter to reliever conversion reminds me of Dotel. While I don't expect he'll continue to be as lights out as he has been as a reliever, I think his days as starter are over as his stuff plays up too much as a reliever. It is still a little early, but there is a decent chance Musgrove is viewed very differently in a month than he was a month ago.
Word. If they could count on Martes and Musgrove to reach their ceilings as relievers (as Martes showed in his 4 appearances in relief from 7/15-25 and as Musgrove is currently doing), then the bullpen would be dominant and they wouldn't need to add anyone. But counting on 2 rookies in high leverage situations in a World Series run is risky as hell. All the young guys (Hoyt, Feliz, Martes, Musgrove) have had stretches where they have looked elite, but so far none have been able to get firmly established the way Devenski did. Hopefully Musgrove answers the call.
This. Musgrove is a different pitcher out of the bullpen. The added 3-4 mph in velocity makes a huge difference for him. He obviously has to prove it, but I believe his performance in the pen is legitimate. The Astros may have dodged a bullet if he is able to work himself into Hinch's good graces by the playoffs. Martes has even better stuff, but his mechanics are just a mess.
https://www.fanragsports.com/news/heyman-tigers-astros-discussing-verlander-deal/ Spoiler The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers are discussing a possible deal to send former MVP and Cy Young-winning starting pitcher Justin Verlander to Houston, sources tell FanRag Sports. Though the two continue to discuss a deal, completing one won’t be easy. Verlander, 34, is still due to make $28 million in both 2018 and 2019, and has a $22 million option for 2020 that kicks in based on his 2019 performance (a top-5 Cy Young finish triggers the option). While Detroit is willing to pay some of that money depending on the return, said return would have to be good enough to convince Detroit to do so while also parting ways with an iconic player. Between the money remaining and figuring out the prospects Detroit would receive in return, a decent gap is still believed to exist in talks between the two sides. Verlander, who has cleared waivers, also has full 10-5 no-trade rights and would have to agree to any deal. The 2011 Cy Young and MVP winner is 8-7 this season with a 3.97 ERA, 1.359 WHIP and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Overall, his numbers are down from his Cy Young runner-up 2016 season, when he posted a 3.04 ERA, AL-best 1.001 WHIP and 10 strikeouts per nine. That said, he has pitched far better of late. He is 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA, 0.942 WHIP and 9.8 strikeouts per nine in six second-half starts. Verlander has spent his entire 13-year career in Detroit, posting a combined 181-113 record to go with a 3.50 ERA. He is a six-time All-Star and, along with winning the Cy Young and AL MVP in 2011, was named the 2006 AL Rookie of the Year. He also has four other top-5 Cy Young finishes to his name. Detroit enters play on August 15 with a 53-65 record. Houston, which leads the AL West by 11.5 games with a record of 72-46, nonetheless came under fire for a relatively quiet trade deadline, acquiring only Francisco Liriano. Houston has since added Tyler Clippard to its bullpen as well.
To add, his problem as a starter was the dreaded third time through the order when his ERA/FIP/xFIP jumps to 8+/7+5+. Musgrove's ERA/FIP/xFIP first time through the order (starts and relief) is 3.31/2.90/3.17 for his career in 68 innings (he did give up more than normal HRs as a starter in the first inning). With the increase velocity and movement out of the pen, I'd expect he's a better reliever than he's been against first time through the order as a starter.
Compared to current Melo details, how likely is this to get done? And who does Houston get first? Verlander [before Sept 1] or Melo [training camp]? Just curious.
You don't but ownership does. It's gonna be hard enough as it is to keep correa, altuve, springer, keuchel, and mccullers without adding another mega long term deal.
Of course we "should" trade for him -- he's a stud. But the reality is his contract will prevent our current owner from going after him. Nevermind that will be the contract Carlos, George, and Altuve could command in 3-4 years.. EDIT: Anyone remember the leaked Astros internal talks? I believe Marlins offered Stanton for Springer and Correa. Glad we passed on that, even if he's looked like Bonds the last month.
I think Martes at some point will be dominant in relief. That said, I doubt he gets high leverage situations in World Series this year if Astros make it there. Hoyt and Feliz will get chances next year to redeem themselves. As I mention earlier, a month from now we should have a better idea on Musgrove. Musgrove has been one of the best relievers since he became a reliever a month ago in 13.1 innings. If he is still one of the best relievers after two months (i.e. one month from now), it will be tough to keep him out of high leverage situations even if he is a rookie. If he drops off to being a good reliever (I see this as the more likely result), he's probably fighting Gregerson for mid leverage spots. Probably takes a horrible implosion to keep him off playoff roster considering how he has done as a reliever and as a starter first time through the order.
It'll be tough; you're negotiating with Detroit, as well as Verlander, who has a full no trade clause earned through his 10/5 rights. He's going to want certain guarantees to give that valuable chip up. So even if Houston and Detroit can agree on compensation, it's still dependent on Verlander saying yes. He has a tremendous amount of power.
Here's how I'd love for it to play out in the playoffs: Gregerson or Clippard handle the 6th if needed Peacock and/or Devenski handle the 7th and 8th Harris and/or Giles handle the 9th Musgrove and Fiers are available for extra innings or if the starter gets knocked out before the 6th. That doesn't leave a spot for a lefty but I feel very comfortable with each of those arms in those situations.
In a way it should be simple: 1. Houston provides Detroit with the bottom line dollar amount they can take on. I think that has to be agreed upon before anything else. 2. Detroit negotiates with Verlander on what his demands are for accepting the trade. If Verlanders demands will not allow for a trade within Houstons budget, the deal is dead. 3. Detroit and Houston negotiate the prospects based on the dollar amount Houston provided in step 1.
Three-party negotiations are rarely simple - far too many agendas. But that was more for the "TRADE EVERYTHING NOW!" crowd ready to jump down Luhnow's throat. If they ultimately can't pry Verlander from the Tigers, it's not necessarily his fault. Lots o' cooks in the kitchen.....
I just went back and read through all the leaked deals. It's kind of fun now since the prospects the Astros were asking for have either become MLB players or busts. Looks like the Astros could have had Stroman for almost nothing and could have done a Jonathan Villar swap for Daniel Murphy.
