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Official Electoral Vote Thread

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by rimrocker, Oct 20, 2016.

  1. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    Based on current polling and trends, Clinton wins 352-186.

    Trump best case: Clinton wins 294-243.

    Clinton best case: Clinton wins 404-134.

    My prediction: Clinton wins 358-179.
     
    #1 rimrocker, Oct 20, 2016
  2. RedRedemption

    RedRedemption Member

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    327-211 Clinton.
     
    #2 RedRedemption, Oct 20, 2016
  3. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    #rigged
     
    #3 Amiga, Oct 20, 2016
  4. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

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    It will be a "tremendous" victory for Clinton, I predict that she will win "bigly"
     
    #4 TheRealist137, Oct 20, 2016
    FranchiseBlade likes this.
  5. mc mark

    mc mark Member

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    Clinton 380 Trump 158

    Using Obama's 2008 total of 365 as a base I would say lose OH (-20), win W VA (+5), AZ (+10), UT (+5), GA (+15)

    GA is probably just daydreaming and OH is still up in the air.
     
    #5 mc mark, Oct 20, 2016
  6. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    #6 rimrocker, Oct 20, 2016
  7. Jugdish

    Jugdish Member

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    Clinton 368
    Trump 164
     
    #7 Jugdish, Oct 20, 2016
  8. RedRedemption

    RedRedemption Member

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    Waiting for one of the delusionals to pop up in here and call out a 538-0 Trump prediction.
     
    #8 RedRedemption, Oct 20, 2016
  9. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    That presupposes that Trumpanzees know what the electoral college is. For all we know it's just another way that the system is rigged against Trump.
     
    #9 CometsWin, Oct 20, 2016
  10. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title

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    Trump supporters have a strong dislike for anything that has to do with college (except SEC football).
     
    #10 Haymitch, Oct 20, 2016
  11. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    After that Al Smith dinner fiasco, I may have to revise my prediction. I think Trump just handed Clinton Ohio and Indiana.
     
    #11 rimrocker, Oct 20, 2016
  12. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Member
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    I think Hillary will win 345 electoral votes and Trump will win 193 electoral votes. But Donald Trump will win 538 bigly votes... thus giving him the election.
     
    #12 FranchiseBlade, Oct 20, 2016
  13. CCorn

    CCorn Member

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    Trump will win 538 on November 28th, that's a given.
     
    #13 CCorn, Oct 21, 2016
  14. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    Goofing around with the electoral map, I see it is possible to reach 270 with only 11 states. Of those, polling has Clinton ahead in 9 (CA, IL, MI, OH, PA, NY, NJ, NC, FL) for a 216-54 advantage. Trump's two states are TX and GA. If you give OH to Trump, it is 198-72.

    There are 10 additional states with double-digit electoral votes and being quite generous to Trump, Clinton leads those states 66-43.

    For the 17 states with 5-9 electoral votes and again being generous to Trump, he leads 75-40.

    Finally, for those 13 (12 states plus DC) that come in with 3-4 electoral votes, Clinton leads 25-19. Of those, Alaska is the only one close to being a swing state so I gave it to Trump.

    Final tally: 347 for Clinton and 191 for Trump, or, giving Trump Ohio, it is 329-209

    Clinton could win with as few as 15 states, Trump will need 28-29 states to have a shot.

    So, it will be an early election night. For Trump to be the next President he has to win PA. After that, he has to win NH, VA, and NC together or if he misses on one of those, he has to pick up FL. That's his only path and it assumes he gets every other state he needs, like OH, NV, AZ, AK, IA, MO, IN, GA, WV, etc.
     
    #14 rimrocker, Oct 21, 2016
  15. Major

    Major Member

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    I think she gets Obama's 2008 map minus Indiana plus Arizona, which is a wash electoral college-wise.
     
    #15 Major, Oct 21, 2016
  16. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    Too many safe spaces, not enough pickup trucks
     
    #16 Invisible Fan, Oct 21, 2016
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