Feldman's 2 seamer and cutter velocities were decreasing steadily before both were up nearly a mph and a half last year. Those pitch velocities regress 2 mph and his ERA and FIP could be in the 4.50-5.50 range.
what does this mean? <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>MLBPA announces 156 players filed for salary arbitration. 6 are <a class="hashtag" action="hash" title="#Astros">#Astros</a>: Castro, Fields, Gattis, Gonzalez, Keuchel, Valbuena</p>— Adam Wexler (@awexler) <a href="https://twitter.com/awexler/status/687073024802041856" data-datetime="2016-01-13T00:45:48+00:00">January 13, 2016</a></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Salary Arbitration MLBTR projections Luis Valbuena (5.148) – $5.8MM Jason Castro (5.104) – $4.6MM Marwin Gonzalez (3.133) – $1.9MM Dallas Keuchel (3.089) – $6.4MM Josh Fields (3.000) – $800K Evan Gattis (3.000) – $3.4MM
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Wins above replacement. A theoretical team of replacement players would win 48 games. Add up all the WAR for a team and add 48 will give an approximate win total.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-zips-projections-houston-astros/ A more detailed breakdown of the ZiPs projections for the Astros here. Of note, Reed is projected for 2.6 WAR. Not all of the ZiPs projections are out, but Astros likely are projected as the best team in the AL by ZiPs projections.
DH's have no defensive value (which counts as a negative), so a DH doesn't generally have as high of WAR as position players. If Gattis bounces back, he'll basically be an average DH.
On the player value, ZIP's projects plate appearances lower if you've been unable to play full seasons, so Correa (556), Gomez (542) and Springer's (503) numbers aren't full season projections. If a player plays a full season without significant injury they should get at least 600 PA. Closer to 700 if they avoid any injury. Altuve is projected for 693. Our guys all evenly projected out to 650 PA (Not saying they will, in fact Gomez, Correa and Springer have never done it, at least one of the will spend some time on the DL, just projecting in a vacuum) Correa 5.7 Gomez 4.1 Altuve 4.0 Springer 3.7 (doesn't get the position premium the other 3 do) Everybody else is likely gonna be in a platoon situation of some kind, or will come up late. I think it may be a tad conservative on George, but otherwise this is about what I would expect if they stay healthy.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> have inquired on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Braves?src=hash">#Braves</a> CF Ender Inciarte. Presumably would have to move Carlos Gomez to make a deal work.</p>— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) <a href="https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/687314865640325120">January 13, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> hmmmmm
Inciarte is likely a better LF/4th OF than Marisnick. Maybe, Rasmus was convinced to allow himself to be traded. Inciarte would be a nice piece going forward as he's young, can play some defense, and a decent average bat even with lack of power.
