2016 Astros Roster

The lineup missed his approach

Put Fowler at the top of this lineup and it is much approved

Regardless if the war stats say so it not

We don't have anyone with that kind of approach

 

The top of the Astros lineup (Altuve and Springer) had a higher OBP than Fowler...

 

He has the type of approach we need

You probably don't understand

And that's ok

 

While adding Fowler's bat would be nice, his range by every metric available is subpar to terrible. If he were completely OK playing LF/DH he would be an ideal target if the price is right.

A top 4 of Fowler/Altuve/Springer/Correa should all post OBP's above .350.

 

Hopefully Luhnow declines arb on Castro and makes another trade with the Brewers for Lucroy and re-signs Rasmus. They should also have enough prospects (VV/Feliz) to trade for Chapman or Kimbrel.

1. Altuve
2. Lucroy
3. Correa
4. Rasmus
5. Springer
6. Gomez
7. Reed
8. Gattis
9. Lowrie/Moran/Duffy

 

I understand what you are trying to say, and I'm just letting you know it has no basis in reality. Production is production. The Cubs have a team built similarly to the Astros, and Dexter Fowler couldn't save them from striking out more than any team in baseball (their K rate is higher than the Astros even if you exclude pitchers). Astros also had a higher OPS (non pitcher) and wRC+ than the Cubs. Carter, Valbuena, Correa, Rasmus, and Lowrie all see more pitchers per PA than Fowler.

 

I really think we only need a few things to become an elite contender.

Sign Jason Hayward. That sets up the outfield for years and he increases or already soot defense and obp/batting average. Perfect young guy type to fit perfectly in the locker room.

Resign Tony Sipp. He was really good for us.

Trade for Kembrel or Chapman. Getting an elite closet would be amazing and make our bullpen much stronger moving Gregerson to the set up role.

Sign Castro through arbitration. Hate his offense all you want but he has a cannon for an arm and our pitching was great all year and he definitely helped in that cause with his framing and calling games.

Call up Tyler White and Aj Reed. Let them battle for 1st. And also let them battle Tucker for the dh position.

 

Interesting stats man, it's nice when people bring actual stats to the discussion.

 

Dexter Fowler scored 102 runs last season because he was on base in front of the mashers. Part of our problems was that all of our HR's, were solo HR.

Production isn't necessarily production. We need guys on base in to properly take advantage of the HR. The Cubs had 6 guys that posted an OBP over .340, we only had 3 over .317. We need some people that can reliably get on base.

 

While I agree with this, its also true that if you start taking power out of the lineup and replacing it with OBP guys, you have fewer the the very HR's that get those guys home.

Sure, guys that have good OBP AND power would be sweet. But thats the kinda guy everybody else wants also.

 

We pretty much have Heyward. He just goes by George Springer here. Elite defensive left fielders, where one of them would have to move just aren't really as valuable, especially given our home park.

I'm a fan of closets too.

 

What's your point? Altuve got on base more than Fowler and scored less runs. It's on the guys behind the leadoff hitter to drive him in. Springer and Correa are up to the task, but they only played roughly 60% of the season. I'd say this is more of an argument for another middle of the order bat with power and OBP. I hope A.J. Reed is that guy.

Definitely. I don't think it's any secret the Astros had horrible sequencing. How much of sequencing is luck and how much is skill? I certainly don't know. Baseball Prospectus' 2nd and 3rd order standings had the Astros at 98 wins, while Fangraphs' BaseRuns (completely ignores sequencing) placed the Astros at 97 wins.

Another sequencing debate.

I'd argue the beauty of the HR is that you don't need anyone on base to take advantage of it. There was a guy on reddit in early/mid September who posted a table with MLB teams and what percent of their HRs were solo. The Astros were 8th in MLB. There were teams with higher OBP than the Astros who had a higher percentage of solo shots, and teams with a lower OBP who had a lower percentage of solo homers. It would be nice if the Astros homeruns happened more frequently with people on base, totally agree.

And yet the Cubs didn't produce any more runs than the Astros. The Cubs were 6th in the NL in runs scored while the Astros were 5th in the AL.

Sure, the Astros would benefit from having guys getting on base more often (who wouldn't?). I just don't think Dexter Fowler, who was 10% better than league average offensively and a poor CF, would have moved the needle. Now, if you want to say plugging Joey Votto (I'm not advocating a trade) into the middle of the lineup would have made a difference, then I'd definitely agree.

The Astros offense is constructed how it is because they are ahead of schedule. Luhnow is not drafting the same type of player he is trading for/signing through FA. I look forward to Reed and Bregman forcing their way onto the big league team in the next year, and hopefully some unheralded guys like Tyler White can make some noise too.

 

Some of this is free agent speculation but I think this...

C Castro, Conger
IF Reed, Altuve, 3B (Trade), Correa, Gonzalez, Valbuena
OF Springer, Gomez, Rasmus, Marisnick, Gattis

SP Keuchel, McHugh, (FA Signing), McCullers, Feldman (Ace to #5 starter shows how much the rotation has improved and I think Feldman has somewhat stayed level with the expectations Luhnow had when he signed him.

RP (Chapman trade), Gregerson, Bastardo (FA Signing), Neshek, Harris, Sipp (re-signed), Fields

Thinking Astros cash in on returnable prospects for Carter, Lowrie, Fiers, Possibly P. Tucker, etc as they look to create a few more open spots on the 40 man roster with some good prospects becoming first time draft eligible. Losing a player like DeShields still stings.

 

Replace Feldman with Fiers and I would be happy with this. I think Fiers will be here a long time

 

I think if Fiers is gone, it's likely in a deal for either Miller or Chapman

I generally agree that they acquired Fiers planning on him being a part of the long term team here, but he isn't one of the blocks that wouldn't be moved if needed