Rocket's Pick

Actually, you need to exclude Denver (which has a worse record than us) from the list of all teams outside of the worst 3 records in the league.

 

The Clutch Lottery Generator is a very realistic tool - it even has the "Knicks" fix in. I did one run each of the 6 last days of the season and the Knicks moved up in half of them. Rockets didnt move up a single time from 5th. They got 5th, 6th, 7th twice each. Other teams moved up though. Denver got 1st once, and the #6-9 teams all moved up atleast one time. Only one time did the team with most balls win the lottery.

Of course this is only a very small sample, and maybe the fact that Rockets didnt move up once in my experiment means we're saving our luck for the real lottery.