Would you sign Kimbrel or Keuchel for 1 year 15mil?

Huh? Didn't Keuchel just make it very clear that he is not settling for any sort of 1-year deal, and is content to wait for the multi-year contract that he is looking for?

He turned down a 5/90 extension from the Stros 2 years ago.

 

He turned down 5/90? Wow he’s a straight idiot.

 

I'm fairly certain, yes, after '16? Don't quote me though.

 

Yes, after his CY year.

 

The Keuchel thing is crazy to me. If he still have 10 years left in his career, I MIGHT understand it. But you only have so many years to get paid millions of dollars to play baseball...after that, it's gone. You can't make up those years.

 

It's interesting. I remember reading an article at some point last year that made the point that extreme groundball pitchers (of which Dallas was one) tended to have shorter careers. It seemed odd to me because in my head he's not a hard thrower. Also, the article admitted that its data was a relatively small sample size because there just aren't that many GB inducing pitchers. At the time I thought it was silly, but considering how much teams have backed away from giving him money, I wonder if there is some very real belief that Keuchel will be trending downward much sooner because of the way he pitches.

 

Steelers wanted to defer a lot of that money you need to actually look at what was offered by the Steelers before commenting.

 

As I said in my post above, $33M of it was guaranteed. I guess reading comprehension isn’t exactly your thing. That $33M was going to be paid out over the first two years and then after that they could and probably would have cut him.

So he would have made $16.5M last year and $16.5M this year, put up huge stats again, and would have entered free agency a whopping year older...and a team like the Jets still would have given him that deal or at least something close. Oh and by the way that deal he got from the Jets only has $25M guaranteed and they’re paying him $26M over the first two years...so they can theoretically cut him after those two years.

Obviously reading isn’t your thing, maybe you’re a little better at math. Assuming you can do 5th grade math, you can figure out quite easily that the Steelers offer was better AND after he declined he lost $15M by not playing last year under the tag.

Edit: In case you want to read for yourself, below are the links regarding the Steelers offer and the Jets one he actually took.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...strous-70-million-deal-from-the-steelers/amp/

https://www.post-gazette.com/sports...rse-than-it-first-looked/stories/201903140153

 

Groundball pitchers tend to have mastered the art of weak contact early in their careers. As they get older, they lose velocity and get hit harder.
Strikeout/fly ball pitchers typically get by on stuff early. As they lose velocity, they learn to generate weak contact such that they appear to age better.

Keuchel was Master of Old Man Skills when he was 27, and it is doubtful he gets better at generating weak contact.

 

Only 10 million of that deal was guaranteed his signing bonus.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/7...t-steelers-offer-guaranteed-money-free-agency

Mentioned yesterday the #Steelers final offer to RB Le’Veon Bell was 5 years, $70M. More context today: The fully guaranteed part was his signing bonus of just over $10M. He would’ve made $33M over the 1st two years — in a rolling guaranteed structure. $45M over the 1st 3 years.I

Even with a 5th grade education I could figure that out.E

The Steelers could have cut him after 1 year.

26 million is greater than 10 mi

 

Edit

 

Are you dense? He would have gotten the $10M signing bonus and obviously they wouldn't have just cut him right after paying him that. If they would have done that it would have been the best situation possible for him...basically a free $10M in his pocket.

"The Steelers could have cut him after 1 year."

Ummm okay if they had done that he would be in the same situation he is now BUT WITH AN ADDITIONAL $20M+ IN HIS POCKET. You realize he earned a whopping ZERO dollars last year right?

I thought it was pretty much universally accepted he took a gamble and it did not pay off for him. Are you Le'Veon's mom or his agent? How can you even sit here and argue that he made the correct decision not taking that deal given we now know what he got with the Jets.

 

Bringing this back to baseball and the Keuchel discussion, him not taking the 5 for $90M back in 2016 looks like it's going to cost him significantly, especially as the days continue to go by and he continues making $0.

Had he taken that deal, he would have been a free agent after the 2020 season and for the sake of argument let's say he then gets a conservative 2 year, $20M deal bringing his total earnings to $110M through 2022. He ended up making $29.6M during 2016-2018 so to break even he's going to have to get a 4 year, $80M+ plus deal and that deal would have to include this season as one of the 4 years.

IMO he's easily going to lose $20M+ from that decision, and given he's likely going to have to sign a 1 year deal, he's set himself up for significant risk and that number could be above $50M if he either struggles or sustains an injury. I get the argument of betting on yourself and wanting to make as much as possible while getting "fair market value", but it just blows my mind the greed of some of these guys and don't understand how you don't take $90M guaranteed when you're 3 years away from free agency and there's so many factors that can change.

 

Are you dense?

It is nowhere near obvious they would not cut him he could have been injured or just cut to make cap space.

25 million guaranteed is greater than 10 million what can't you understand?

This is the NFL you are one play away from serious injury,

So we agree you where wrong about him being guaranteed 33 million from Pittsburgh right?

 

Sorry to derail the thread I'm finished.

 

Once again had they cut him after this past season as you are suggesting he would have been free to sign the same deal with the Jets and he would have actually gotten paid last year instead of making $0. If they didn't cut him and kept him this season, he would have made $33M total the past two seasons...which is greater than your $25M.

Now you are rambling about injury risk - my initial statement was "he lost himself money by sitting out last season" which is 100% a fact.

 

So, after the June draft teams can sign him for zero compensation - he knows this, I wish the team would sign him, we are great, but with him, we would be even greater.

DD

 

What makes you think Keuchel would pitch well enough to make the Astros even greater?

How much do you think they should offer him?

 

Why wouldn't he sign before, when they offered him many monies? 1-2 year deals. He turned down the long-term one in '16.

 

At this point Miley is giving you what DK would. 3.51 ERA. He is pretty close to his last 80 innings of last year. Maybe he figured something out?

I think the Stros were banking on a draft pick from extending a QO. We might as well write that possibility off. I doubt a team signs him before the draft now.