1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Would you sign Kimbrel or Keuchel for 1 year 15mil?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by CinematicFusion, Mar 8, 2019.

  1. Jake Tower

    Jake Tower Member

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2012
    Messages:
    5,560
    Likes Received:
    3,349
    How do the compensatory picks from a qualifying offer work?
     
  2. The Real Shady

    The Real Shady Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    15,537
    Likes Received:
    1,079
    Curious about this myself. Actually looks like it doesn't matter since we're in the 2nd group.

     
  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    3,440
    Likes Received:
    1,444
    The way I read the rule is that Houston will receive a pick after Comp Round B regardless of how much he signs for, as long as he signs prior to the draft. I suspect Houston will increase their 2 year offer sometime soon, especially if there is an injury in the rotation. I honestly think at this point Houston does not want him on a 1 year deal at any price.
     
  4. The Real Shady

    The Real Shady Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    15,537
    Likes Received:
    1,079
    Correct. Updated after I re-read it.
     
  5. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2001
    Messages:
    26,629
    Likes Received:
    2,167
    But what about Brad Peacock...

    Bringing Keuchel back would benefit us by:

    1) Adding depth to a rotation that has seen 9-10 guys start in recent years.
    2) Pushing Peacock back to the bullpen
    3) Preventing other teams from signing him.

    I'd agree he's luxury, rather than necessity.
     
    Nook likes this.
  6. donkeypunch

    donkeypunch Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2013
    Messages:
    9,626
    Likes Received:
    6,969
    Well, he wants a 1 year deal above the qualifying offer or multiyear deal at a lower rate. Hes not gonna get either at this point and I feel bad for him. Boras comes out looking bad for his future going forward.
     
  7. CinematicFusion

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2018
    Messages:
    201
    Likes Received:
    112
    Does Keuchel even want to come back to Houston? Astros have offered him 1 and 2 year contracts. We know the Astros offered 17.9 for a one year deal. Keuchel said he would now consider a one year deal. It would help and deepen our bullpen.

    We could use Keuchel. Solid innings eating pitcher with upside potential but would require a one month assignment is the minors. At least 3-4 starts before ready for prime time....and the clock is ticking.

    On that same note, what would it take to sign Kimbrel to a one year deal....he has to be thinking about that. I would put my hat in the ring. Astros give him the opportunity to thrive in the postseason and get a better contract.
     
  8. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    3,440
    Likes Received:
    1,444
    Signing Keuchel would move Peacock to the bullpen and Framber Valdez to AAA. So the upgrade for this season is really to the bullpen. The real value Keuchel holds for Houston is for 2020 (and maybe 2021) where they really only have Verlander in place as an established starter. But is signing Keuchel for $18M/1yr, $35M/2yr, or $42M/3yr really worth it if it means there won’t be funds available for trade deadline acquisitions or offseason free agent signings? I certainly don’t think a 1 year deal makes sense for Houston. As for Keuchel, at this point he is just looking for what he considers a reasonable offer, whether it’s 1, 2, or 3 years.

    Kimbrel doesn’t make sense for Houston. He represents and upgrade in the bullpen, but would cost a draft pick in addition to eating up all the available money.
     
  9. CinematicFusion

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2018
    Messages:
    201
    Likes Received:
    112
    Forgot about the draft pick...Kimbrel would make more sense for many teams after June on a prorated contract. Maybe that's what teams are also doing with Dallas Keuchel.
     
    Snake Diggit likes this.
  10. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 1999
    Messages:
    21,207
    Likes Received:
    3,238
    Projected playoff teams that lose that their #1/#2/#3 starter with a season ending injury are the market for Keuchel.
     
  11. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    14,412
    Likes Received:
    2,218
    Considering the draft pick cost, it would not surprise me if these guys need to wait until a day after the draft. It is going to take a really desperate team (Cough Red Sox Cough) to sign one of those two to a short term deal and lose a pick. Long term deal would be easier to spread out the draft pick cost.
     
  12. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2016
    Messages:
    1,100
    Likes Received:
    456
    Two is better than one. I’d take Keuchel over Peacock (as a starter) right now. Astros don’t have a reliable LHRP at the moment with Valdez being shakey as well. Keuchel could be an upgrade in either role.
     
  13. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2016
    Messages:
    1,069
    Likes Received:
    898
    Not interested in Kimbrel. We have a very good closer and setup man with Osuna and Pressly. Kimbrel would also cost us our 2nd highest draft pick and 500k in international bonus pool.

    Keuchel I have mixed feelings about. Now that he's reportedly interested in a one or 2 year deal it is more palatable. I believe he is likely to be a better starter than at least one of Miley, Peacock, or McHugh. However, we have arms in AAA that are ready or near ready to make their major league debuts. Looking around MLB teams.... Whitley would be the ace or number 2 starter on several teams right now. It's obvious the Astros are not big on long term contracts with pitchers. Since Luhnow has been here the longest contract he's given to any pitchers were Luke Gregerson and Tony Sipp for 3 years.

    The other issue is the salary cap. 15 million puts the Astros at about 203 million in payroll, and that might not even be right because I still haven't seen the luxury tax breakdown on the Verlander extension. Several tweets from reporters said the new deal started this year. That would up his AAV a few million if that is the case. So 15 million more might put us right at the cap. During the offseason Crane said they could flex the payroll up closer to the luxury tax level of 206 million, but he wouldn't go over it. As we saw yesterday with Bregman coming up limp, we don't know what injuries are going to occur. I don't want to waste the majority of our cap space or possibly all of it on a position we are okay with right now in April. Three months from now we could have much bigger needs. Or maybe Luhnow decides to go after another big time starter at the deadline. Even though the Mariners are on fire, I still believe we win our division by 10 games in the end. I prefer the flexibility to add a big bat or arm at the deadline over adding Keuchel now when he probably won't be ready to pitch for a month after he signs anyway.
     
    marks0223 likes this.
  14. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2010
    Messages:
    8,939
    Likes Received:
    1,421
    I think our brass is playing it right. Wait and see how what we have pans out. So far, McHugh and Miley have been effective, Valdez, James and Peacock, not so much. But much can change in a hurry.

    I too dont want to spend all our 2019 money in April.
     
  15. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    14,412
    Likes Received:
    2,218
    So far, McHugh, Cole, Osuna, Pressly, Miley, Devenski, Harris, and Rondon have been great by by ERA (great an understatement for some). Verlander has been average with Peacock slightly higher than average. Valdez and James have been horrible. Overall team ERA is slightly worse than last year, but still better than every other team from 2018.

    Every team has at least 2 guys with 6 plus ERAs like James, Valdez except the Giants and Tigers. Having two guys struggling at a time is perfectly normal.

    Kind of off topic, but looking through the other team's stats to see how Astros stack up in pitchers struggling....the Red Sox stats are worse than I though they would be. 5 starters with 6+ ERAs (i.e., worse than every Astros starter). 3 including Sale with 9+. 2 have 12+ ERAs. Their rotation has an ERA of 8.78. What Valdez and James have done so far would be improvements for that rotation.
     
  16. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2008
    Messages:
    67,976
    Likes Received:
    50,236
     
    mikol13 and Nook like this.
  17. HTown2017Champs

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2018
    Messages:
    975
    Likes Received:
    389
    Wish him luck. I do agree a move to the NL would be great to him. Just hoping he signs before the draft so we get that comp pick.
     
  18. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2016
    Messages:
    1,069
    Likes Received:
    898
    Just for fun....


    Dallas Keuchel through 3 starts in 2018
    0-2, 4.20 ERA, 15 IP, 1.80 WHIP

    Wade Miley through 3 starts in 2019
    1-1, 3.45 ERA, 15.2 IP, 1.34 WHIP
     
Loading...

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now