Trump’s Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign

Ohio is usually something of a wild card, and is also important for that reason.

 

I found the polling in Miami Dade and Milwaukee pretty interesting.

It’s only two counties but still two important counties where if Trump was polling even slightly below the national average it would tell you a lot.

My guess is what is keeping him competitive in these key electoral swing States is a perception that he had something positive affect on the economy. The key to winning has been and continues to be economic messaging.

That’s why I like Warrens chances more than you might think. She’s really really good here despite what you think about her likability or the Pocahontas crap. Biden is poling incredibly high which on its face looks great, but he’s relatively untested in a long drawn out presidential race where the right wing media has a year to beat him up and run negative attack ads at him. Kamala is the big third wheel question mark. We’ll see how she performs because her rising to the top will be decided by the Fall all dependent on performance.

Can the Dem candidate get a repetitive provoking economic message that rises above Trumps BS?? If so they’ll win easily.

It also pains me to say this but Healthcare messaging after the primary needs to shift to a simple “secure and expand” message that focuses on Republicans wanting to destroy Obamacare. I think running on Medicare for all in the general election might be a big mistake as much I think the country ultimately needs to move to that system. Secure and expand... secure and expand... rinse repeat.

This is how you run up the score in those areas Trump is still hanging onto slightly because those areas of the country just don’t know what the heck they have in Democrats yet. This isn’t that difficult of a strategy and should be an easy win, but everyone is just paranoid because of 2016.

 

We've known this since November 9th, 2016.

You can add OH, AZ, VA and NC to that list.

The arithmetic of our democracy is so insanely stupid and is leading us straight into the gutter.

 

Just another reason to abolish the antiquated slavery/ small state motivated electoral college. Why vote at all for president in the 99% of the country that doesn't matter

Biden, (read status quo Hillaryism) and the rest of get along to go along crowd will lead to a low Democratic turnout. Sanders always polls better than Trump in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Florida is a swing state and can go Democratic now that the million or so felons the New Jim Crow prevented from voting may be eligible to vote again. A lot of Puerto Rican refugees, who are not big Trump fans, are moving to Florida , also.

 

Doesn’t said much of anything new. And it ends with this :

“Of course, the campaign season has barely begun. The election could wind up being a simple referendum on the president, and his approval ratings suggest he could lose, perhaps even decisively. But his relative advantage in the Electoral College could ensure his political survival.”

Btw, I stop following and reading the NYT about a year ago. They still have gem from time to time but overall, a waste of time with some crap in between.

 

What would really help would be those states requiring a paper ballot. I guess that idea is just too simple a solution to Russian interference, which we will see again. I agree that the healthcare message needs to be easy to articulate, easy for the electorate to understand. Just how reviled trump is in this country, however, can be understated. As long as those who are sick to death of his time in office, and that's a majority of Americans, just get out and vote, he's going down by a good majority. In my opinion.

 

I agree. It’s just that everyone is paranoid due to the weirdness of 2016 and the inevitable interference by foreign actors cozying up to trump. If you look at 2020 in a vacuum it should be an easy defeat given how historically unpopular this president is.

The bigger issue might be getting him to leave office if defeated. Watch him and his relationship with Pentagon officials these next 12 months. I wish James Mattis would have stayed but understand why he left. That’s my biggest fear and is the playbook of desperate autocrats who lose popular support.

 

I'm someone else who wishes Mattis had stayed. I'm more concerned about Barr than the military, however. I hope it doesn't happen, but I can imagine Barr attempting to support a trump "meme" that the election was a "fraud" and the presidency was "stolen" from him. We're used to even ruthless politicians stepping back from the brink.

Nixon in 1960 is a great example. That election was extremely tight. He could have contested it, and didn't. There would have been an uproar if he had, but there were enough irregularities to possibly justify it. Gore versus Bush, Jr is another, of course. The Supreme Court, in a shocking and highly controversial decision, took that decision away from Al Gore for all practical purposes. That could only "work" if the election was very, very tight, as both of those elections were. I don't think 2020 will be if foreign interference can be kept to a minimum.

 

Do wat? Sometimes I wonder if you and I live in two different countries. Or you simply do not understand how government works...which is likely the case.

 

In Wisconsin, one of my old home states, Hillary could not even rouse herself to spend 6 hrs or one short day there campaigning. A majority of the votes are in a triangle about 80 miles on a side. Milwaukee, Madison and Kenosha-Racine can easily be done in one day. The decline in African American voting alone in Milwaukee was enough to tip the election.

We were all raised with the Soviet Russian threat, but time to change a bit and consider more obvious reasons Hillary could have lost in Wisconsin.

 

Could not read the link.

I am all for these articles reiterating that Trump could possibly be reelected but did it talk about the fact that Trump is losing support in Michigan and Pennsylvania?I

trumps biggest weakness is that he is losing support at the margins he won by the thinnest of margins.

he has done nothing to maintain that support or increase it, he is also losing support among republicans which will suppress that vote.



This latest issue is definitely not going to help.

 

I understand clearly. If let’s say Joe Biden wins the election, on January 20th the Supreme Court swears in the new president and just like that he’s technically the president. That’s how electing a president works post election.

However the only thing that stands between norms and defiance would be the power of the military. Which is exactly what happens in nearly every other country that defies a Democratic process and uses a bs premise to pull off a sham election or sham post election overhaul.

I agree that it would be insane and there’s so much bureaucracy that it would be nearly impossible to pull off such a feat. You’d need all the senior levels of the pentagon to be on board, the secret service, Republicans in Congress (done), the DOJ (done at the senior level) and many other agencies to go along with it.

So not saying it can be done but my fear is over the next year he’ll work to secure more and more bureaucratic agencies to be enough in the tank to go along with any scenario that the Supreme Leader proposes to stay in power. I think the most likely scenario is that he claims something was wrong with the election, maybe issues an executive order to delay the inauguration, it goes quickly to the Supreme Court, you’d probably get a 7-2 ruling to strike down the white houses illegal executive order, and Trump leaves office. Regardless it’s going to be a sh$t show and I know Trump will try like hell to stay in office... but no I know the process and how our bureaucracy works. Unlike you think.

Doesn’t mean I have no reason to still not be worried about the Bullsh$t Trump will try if he loses and have reasons to watch out what he’ll try to corrupt over the next year.

 

So what you're saying is that its easier for Trump to radicalize a massive amount of the population. Considering over 80% of the population are rational people, how is trump going to radicalize most of the military? He would need the support of the military before that could even remotely happen. Its
absolutely silly to entertain this fantasy in our current and near immediate environment.

Wouldn't it be easier to just work the EC and win the election legibly? Considering the vast majority of voters have already decided R or D long before the candidate has been picked.

Yes, a reasonably outcome could be a result of something like the SCOTUS has to make a ruling on election decisions. And when the liberals dont get the decision they want, they will naturally blame it on conspiracy theories and/or illegitimate justices who should be in jail instead of on the bench. Then they will get up and demand the people to get back what is theirs with blood. @Sweet Lou 4 2

 

Any guesses on which SCOTUS Justices would vote to uphold an Executive Order from Trump post election to delay the inauguration? My guess is Clarence Thomas and Gorsuch. I think there’s no way in hell Roberts would side with Trump here FYI.

Sorry guys but you haven’t been paying attention if you think Trump wouldn’t issue an executive order if he loses the election.

 

You obviously didn’t read my post. I wasn’t saying he would be successful at radicalizing the entire military. I said it’s quote...”insane”, but that doesn’t mean the next 12 months there won’t be warning signs with what happens at the pentagon. I’m more afraid of how he’s create chaos and division than how likely he is to actually be successful.

 

Both political parties create plenty of chaos and division, regardless of who is the candidate. Trump isn't going to do something that hasnt been tried before.

 

Oh the “Both sides” argument. When you have nothing else... I’d love to hear the time Barrack Obama, Bill Clinton, or Jimmy Carter did what I’m predicting Trump will try.

Of course he hasn’t done it yet, and first step is for the Dem to actually win. Let’s just see what happens but I just want people to pay attention to what he’s going to do these next 12 months in preparation. If you think he won’t try some BS you haven’t been paying attention. This isn’t a man who is just going to write Joe Biden a nice letter, and sit there with a smile on his face on Inauguration Day.

 

So the both side argument pops up again? What a person is willing to do is based on the person's character. Who was the last president that deliberately lies with such ease and without any shame?

If he loses and it's very close (win or lose, it's likely close)... I have little doubt he would try. I also don't doubt he would give up fairly quickly when he sees it's not going to succeed. You might not even know that he tried. He still got an image and ego to protect and that will always be his highest priority. Sore loser on his resume isn't something he want. But he will try first and see if he can get away with it before handling power over.