http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/stor...nkings-vanderbilt-commodores-drop-bilas-index I would be thrilled if someone with an insider account would post this
Spoiler 1. Syracuse Orange The Orange have beaten three Sagarin Top 25 teams with a highly efficient offense and transition game. Jim Boeheim's defense is improving. 2. Kentucky Wildcats No holes on this team, with a top-five Kenpom.com offense and defense. Plus, John Calipari's young Cats play as hard together as anyone else. 3. North Carolina Tar Heels If the Heels make free throws and take an attitude to dominate, they can be (and finish) No. 1. 4. Ohio State Buckeyes With a healthy Sullinger, this team is unbeaten. The Buckeyes still lack perimeter shooting and a lockdown wing defender. 5. Duke Blue Devils Blue Devils will be able to score enough points. Can they guard the dribble and contain the ball? Against the very best, it will be an issue. 6. Louisville Cardinals Cards have three wins against the Sagarin Top 50 with a highly rated defense that speeds you up and forces quick shots. Scoring efficiency will be tested against Kentucky. 7. Kansas Jayhawks Jayhawks have no margin for error. Bill Self one of the few with the courage/craziness to play Davidson after final exams. His team has to make better decisions and take a blue-collar approach. This Kansas team won't "out-talent" anybody good. 8. Xavier Musketeers Xavier is clearly a mess right now, with losses to Oral Roberts, Long Beach State and Hawaii, and nobody knows what the Musketeers will be post-suspensions. I am leaving Xavier in place until the team is back at full strength. This spot is a gift, for now. 9. Missouri Tigers So far, Missouri has been a top-five offensive team. But the Tigers haven't really played anybody, and nobody with enough size to really hurt them. 10. Baylor Bears Bears' defense is very good, but too many offensive rebounds surrendered and too many turnovers on the offensive end. They have three Sagarin Top 50 wins but haven't played anyone. I think I went to grade school with Paul Quinn. He has a college now? 11. Marquette Golden Eagles A group of strong-minded drivers who need to gang-rebound. How good they can be depends upon how many second shots they give up. Right now, it's too many. 12. Connecticut Huskies UConn is better offensively than I expected but not as good defensively. When that comes around, this team can rise. 13. Florida Gators Gators can really score from deep but need to be better defensively and get to the free throw line more often. This team will get better and better. 14. Michigan State Spartans If Tom Izzo solidifies the point, Spartans can beat anyone in the Big Ten. Kenpom.com defensive numbers are very good, but turnovers and consistent free throw shooting are issues. 15. Wisconsin Badgers Kenpom.com rates Wisconsin No. 1 overall because of tempo and defensive efficiency. My eyes tell me different, but Badgers are still good and still tough to play against. 16. Indiana Hoosiers The schedule has been a bit soft overall, but Indiana is scoring very efficiently. How will the Hoosiers react when they see their own blood, and the innocent climb is derailed? This team is ahead of schedule. 17. Georgetown Hoyas Hoyas are tougher than they look and than their age would indicate. Kenpom.com puts Georgetown in the 20s, but I like the talent level. 18. UNLV Rebels Tested with good talent, Rebels still need to better guard the 3-point line. The win over North Carolina only lasts so long without being validated. UNLV is capable. 19. Pittsburgh Panthers Panthers grind you on offense, and Kenpom.com rates Pitt as the nation's most efficient offensive team. Still a work in progress, though. Pitt is not quite as powerful as its numbers indicate. 20. Virginia Cavaliers The ACC's version of Wisconsin, but perhaps better on the offensive end. After Carolina and Duke, yes, it could be Virginia. 21. Alabama Crimson Tide If the Tide make shots, this is a very good team. If not, they have to grind. That makes them vulnerable. 22. Michigan Wolverines Well-coached and very solid. Wolverines can beat almost anyone if they hit shots but can lose to almost anyone when they don't. They keep you on a string but get no second shots and shoot no free throws. 23. Stanford Cardinal Solid defensively and getting better. Cardinal have not played a murderers' row but can play with almost anyone. It will be interesting for Stanford against physical teams. 24. Creighton Bluejays A top-10 offense in the Kenpom.com ratings, and best team in the Missouri Valley. Doug McDermott is Jays' Szczerbiak or Curry. 25. Murray State Racers Racers have beaten good teams, although the numbers don't suggest the Top 25. I like what I see. They play hard. 26. Saint Louis Billikens An outstanding passing team, and they don't beat themselves. You have to do it. 27. Gonzaga Bulldogs A good mix of inside and out, and Mark Few won't shy away from a fight. The game against Xavier will be a rising opportunity. I like this Zags team. 28. Illinois Fighting Illini I rank the Illini this high because they have good talent and can guard people. They can't score, though, and that catches up eventually. 29. Harvard Crimson Crimson will go into blackout conditions until the NCAA tournament. They have to find a way to motivate themselves without pats on the back that television provides. Most media will react only upon a loss going forward. 30. Memphis Tigers Athleticism and talent, but defensive toughness is the key. This team can rise through the season. But it has to be on defense. 31. Florida State Seminoles Seminoles have a top-five defense and an anemic offense. This team can beat you up and grind you down. 32. Mississippi State Bulldogs Crazy talent and confounding numbers. Still, your eyes tell you this team is better than the paper says. 33. California Golden Bears The loss to Missouri is hard to shake out of your head, but Cal defends well. Turnovers are still too high, but Cal can win the Pac-12. But so can anyone else in that league. 34. Wichita State Shockers Experienced and will continue to get better. Lost to Alabama and Temple but beat UNLV at home. Also, beat Newman. Hello, Newman! 35. Brigham Young Cougars Top 25 in offense and defense in Kenpom.com ratings. Well-coached, too. 36. Vanderbilt Commodores This team is missing something. It may need to see the wizard. It's confounding to see the wild swings in performance. 37. St. Mary's Gaels Solid and well-coached, Gaels play on both ends. But they don't do anything great. 38. San Diego State Aztecs Pieces and overall numbers don't suggest Aztecs should be this high, but they continue to win games. 39. Marshall Thundering Herd Check out DeAndre Kane. He is really good. This team scraps. 40. Purdue Boilermakers Boilers play harder than you do, and that is how they win. Plus, Robbie Hummel is back. Purdue has to play harder, because it won't win on talent alone. 41. West Virginia Mountaineers Mountaineers were rough early, but Kevin Jones has carried a big load for Bob Huggins. 42. Iona Gaels The Gaels have a top-15-rated offense, and Scott Machado would be celebrated if on television more often. He is truly outstanding. Mike Glover is a load. 43. Northern Iowa Panthers Losing at home dropped the Panthers a bit, but I still wouldn't want to play them. It's like playing Wisconsin in sand. 44. Belmont Bruins Bruins play fast and will play anyone without fear. They haven't cashed in yet but have been close. More losses than I expected, but people are better prepared for them this year. 45. Oklahoma Sooners Steven Pledger has been excellent of late, and Lon Kruger adds a calm hand. 46. Seton Hall Pirates Pirates have beaten one team in the Sagarin Top 50 (VCU). Is this too high? Perhaps, but it is early. Big East play will confirm this position or make the Pirates walk the plank. 47. Texas A&M Aggies Defense without offense gets you only so far. But I still like this team. 48. Temple Owls Owls lack size. That hurts them, as did the loss at Texas. 49. Kansas State Wildcats See Texas A&M above. Wildcats need to find scoring. 50. Long Beach State 49ers After playing one hellacious schedule, Niners will be battle-tested. Casper Ware and Larry Anderson make a terrific backcourt. 51. Arizona Wildcats A young team that needs to mature. 52. Texas Longhorns A really young team that really needs to mature. Very talented, but took one on the chin at North Carolina. It wasn't ready for that. 53. New Mexico Lobos Excellent on the defensive end. This may wind up being too low. 54. Virginia Tech Hokies Hokies will be right on the bubble. Again. Tech needs quality wins. But if Tech were in the Colonial, we'd think more highly of it. 55. Cincinnati Bearcats So far, resilient and playing well without Yancy Gates. 56. Cleveland State Vikings Vikings force turnovers with aggressive defense but put opponents on the free throw line too much. I rate them higher than their numbers suggest I should. 57. Kent State Golden Flashes This team really defends but is scary in March. 58. Virginia Commonwealth Rams I am continually impressed with how hard this team plays. As weak as the Pac-12 is, Rams can be an at-large with continued improvement. Who ever complained about that? Oh, yeah. I did. 59. Northwestern Wildcats Plenty of chances in a tough Big Ten. Need to cash in, but I'm not sure rebounding and defense will allow it. 60. Dayton Flyers Inconsistent, but solid wins propping up lesser numbers. This team could drop. 61. Ohio Bobcats Solid all-around team that can make shots. But free throw line a major factor. Bobcats don't get there enough and put opponents there too much. 62. Minnesota Golden Gophers This may be too low. Minnesota hasn't given up more than 56 points since Trevor Mbakwe was hurt. Turnovers remain a concern. 63. Southern Miss Golden Eagles Unlike the typical Larry Eustachy team, much better offensively than on defense. 64. Oregon State Beavers Beavers have to beat top teams in the Pac-12. Otherwise, there is not enough to move out other quality teams and move into at-large range. 65. North Carolina State Wolfpack Guard play is the only major concern. This team has performed beyond expectations. 66. Missouri State Bears A fourth team from the Missouri Valley Conference? Yes. 67. Saint Joseph's Hawks Think how good they'd be with a 7-footer coming off the bench. What?! Too soon? 68. LSU Tigers The Tigers' numbers don't suggest they can remain in the top 68. This group has a hard time scoring, and no team this offensively challenged can get enough stops over time.
