[The Sports Post] Why LeBron James will sign with the Houston Rockets

https://thesportspost.com/nba-lebron-james-chooses-rockets/

This week, we will examine LeBron James’ free agency in depth by writing a preview of his July decision in the voice of a writer that believes he will sign with a different potential suitor each day. The Sports Post’s official prediction will be revealed on Thursday, June 21st, with the runner-ups revealed in no particular order. Today’s team is the Houston Rockets.

There is something wonderfully vague about free agency. When a player commits to a team, he is really committing to an idea. He has a set of beliefs about the team that he is joining that rarely come to pass. Guys get injured. They get traded. They develop into players, and people, that nobody expected. Players bet their careers, their legacies, on a shockingly small group of people that they hardly know.

For all of the talk about LeBron James’ friendship with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh leading into The Decision, it is worth noting none of them had ever played together in a setting beyond the Olympics. They signed on with a third-year head coach, to play for an organization with only one championship to its name, and in a three-star free agents model that had never truly been attempted before. The Heatles were never a sure thing.

Neither were the Cleveland Cavaliers when he rejoined them in 2014. Only three players that took the floor for Cleveland on opening night of the 2014-15 season were on the roster for Game 4 of the 2018 NBA Finals. One of them was James. The other two, Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, were featured in trade talks more prominently than many of the players who ultimately left.


All three of James’ championship teams were, at one point, only one game away from elimination. There is an alternate universe in which James never wins a single ring. In that world, Miami’s depth probably would have blown up in his face. Cleveland’s youth and lack of defense would have done the same. James would have played 15 NBA seasons without ever finding the teammates he needed. The greatest player of his generation would forever be defined by the bad decisions he made in July rather than his great play in June.

James doesn’t live in this world, of course, but he might as well. Only two players in NBA history have ever won Finals MVP at an age beyond where James will be when next year’s NBA Finals roll around: Michael Jordan and Kareem-Abdul Jabbar. Both have six championships. James has three and a steadily ticking clock. With each passing year, he grows less likely to add to his collection. LeBron is not a vampire. He will not live forever. He is going to retire, and it is probably going to be rather soon.

Imagine James did live in that world with no championships. Imagine he had one bet left to make, one last chance to give himself the legacy he deserves. He probably wouldn’t want to make the mistakes that got him there in the first place.

Choosing Cleveland would leave him where he was during his first tenure with the Cavaliers: on a team with no talent, no assets, and no feasible way of acquiring either. It would be unadulterated loyalty, a trait James has never displayed. In cold, practical terms, the Cavaliers have no chance of giving him the championship he would crave.

Choosing the Los Angeles Lakers would be like choosing his second Cavaliers team all over again. It would rely on a group of young players who have never even seen May basketball, much less the rigors of June. Sure, they would be able to flip some of them for battle-tested veterans, but that leaves so much to chance. What if Kawhi Leonard isn’t really healthy? What if Paul George really does stay in Oklahoma City? James is making a bet, but he isn’t a gambler. The variables here are too extreme.

Choosing the Philadelphia 76ers would be the equivalent of his first Decision, the one that led him to the Miami Heat. It would be a bet on talent and nothing else. Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid would be perhaps the two most talented players ever to grace James’ team. They also clog the lane, exist on a very different timeline and come with troubling injury histories. James watched Wade break down before his eyes in 2014. Doing the same with the kids in Philadelphia is a risk he would be unwilling to take.

Again, James doesn’t live in this championship-free Twilight Zone, but he is going to act this summer as if he did. That is what his history tells us. James won two championships with the Heat, and he also left the Heat. He won a championship with the Cavaliers, and he is probably now going to leave them as well. It would be hard to qualify either period of his career as a success by the lofty bar he sets for himself. By his own admission, his standard for championships is “not five, not six, not seven…” Technically James doesn’t have five, six or seven championships. He has three. That bit of semantics is unlikely to amuse him.

James has gambled twice, and he has lost twice. With his window to win those missing rings closing, he needs the sure thing. He needs the Houston Rockets.

The Rockets are already a championship contender, with or without LeBron. They won 65 games last season, more than the Lakers have in the last two seasons combined. Their two best players attempted 1,101 three-pointers last season, a necessity when playing next to James. Philadelphia’s two best players attempted 225. The Cavaliers might not even be able to give him an All-Star teammate next season. The Rockets can give him an MVP.

Chris Paul is one of James’ best friends. Mike D’Antoni coached him on Team USA. And had Paul stayed healthy in last year’s Western Conference Finals, the Rockets would have won the championship and this conversation wouldn’t even be possible.

There is risk in almost any free agent decision. There was risk in joining the Heat in 2010. And there was risk in rejoining the Cavaliers in 2014. But the Rockets are the NBA’s rarest gem: certainty. James said in the Sports Illustrated letter that revealed his return to Cleveland that his goal is “still to win as many titles as possible, no question.” He has already brought one trophy back to Northeast Ohio. When he joins the Rockets, he will be able to bring quite a few more back to Southeast Texas.