The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

So, time for the latest update. The rumours are swirling around Westminster. Based on what i am reading, they cannot all possibly be true, as a number of the rumours are mutually exclusive of some of the others.

Next week the UK Parliament is scheduled to vote on Theresa May's latest revisions to the Brexit deal with the UK. It should be remembered however, that the EU has not approved these revisions and by all appearances is very likely not going to. In any case, it seems that her latest proposal may not have the votes to pass.

Again, it is not clear what it would mean if it did pass, as the EU has not approved the revised deal and the March 29, 2019 deadline is currently set in stone, unless their is some sort of mutually agreed upon alteration to this date or the UK's commitment to exit the EU that is passed by the UK Parliament and unanimously by all 27 countries of the EU before that time.

As far as that goes, it appears that there may be support for extending the deadline date by a short amount. The length of the delay is a matter that is being debated and disputed, but I am currently expecting that there will be a short term extension of the March 29, 2019 deadline.

The EU leadership was disagreeable earlier in the week, which made no sense to me, as the failure of Brexit is what constitutes a win for them, and a delay is clearly better than the final achievement of a no-deal Brexit, which is now 35 days (five weeks) away. But then the clouds parted and the light shined in.

BREXIT LIVE: EU's new no-deal deadline REVEALED - and Brussels demands £7BN to approve it

Britain could be offered a new Brexit deadline if MPs fail to back Theresa May’s deal but will have to pay £7bn into the EU’s 2019 budget, according to Brussels sources.

Brexit negotiators are reported to have pencilled in April 18 as a new date - 20 days after the current March 29 Brexit deadline - should Parliament fail to agree on the Withdrawal Agreement thrashed out by Mrs May and her EU counterparts. But sources says the European Commission contingency plans include demands for a £7bn net contribution to the EU budget for 2019. They say the extension gives the UK the opportunity to meet its Brexit deal obligations - which include a £45bn divorce payment and signing up to the Irish backstop - after the legally-binding Article 50 has expired.​

The EU has decided that they are now apparently supportive of a short term extension - by the estimate of the article quoted from below, 20 days - for a £7 Billion fee. This 20 day time seems so short that I again expect it is just a negotiating ploy that will be used to extort still more money from the British, but we will see.

Honestly, it seems like an extension to just a day or two before the EU Parliamentary elections in late May - about 60 days - would make the most sense. But a number of the people involved in this appear to be on the verge of going "wobbly," as former UK Primer Minister Margaret Thatcher once accused her male conservative party colleagues in the UK Parliament of.

So my best advice at this point is to get your seat-belts on tight, hold on to your hats and try not to scream too loud. We are at the top of the highest part of the rollercoaster ride and the whole thing is getting ready to drop straight down, brakes off, at full breakneck speed.

 

Theresa May SCRAPS this week's meaningful vote as she DELAYS Commons showdown

THERESA May has announced the meaningful vote on her Brexit deal will not take place this week, and has instead pushed the date back to less than three weeks before the UK is due to leave the EU.

2.15pm update: Labour attacks May for vote delay

Labour's Shadow Brexit Minister, Kier Starmer, has criticised Theresa May for deciding to delay her meaningful vote on the Withdrawal Agreement.

With the vote now delayed up to March 12, Mr Starmer said: "This decision to further delay the meaningful vote is the height of irresponsibility. Theresa May is recklessly running down the clock in a desperate attempt to force MPs to choose between her deal and no deal.“Parliament cannot stand by and allow this happen.”​

Tick tock....

 

Theresa May is in Brussels, working to try to find a path to a deal that works for the UK as well as the EU. Unfortunately, it appears that the only arrangement that works for the EU is the UK not leaving.

With just over a month until the UK formally leaves EU if no intervening action is taken to alter that course, Donald Tusk and the leadership of the EU are now suggesting that the UK should 'delay' its departure.

Theresa May says she is determined not to delay Brexit, even though Donald Tusk believes it is the ‘only rational solution’

• The PM said she was determined not to delay Brexit
• She said she believes a deal is close to being agreed
• But her EU counterpart said an extension is necessary

The European Council president said he and Mrs May had discussed the process of extending the UK’s withdrawal under Article 50, which is the legal trigger for Brexit to take place.

He said he believed it made sense to delay the withdrawal beyond the date outlined in Article 50, 29 March, but that Mrs May still “believes” she can continue without an extension. Despite facing pressure from pro-Europe Tories for delay, the Mrs May insisted: “It’s within our grasp to leave with a deal on March 29 and that’s where all of my energies are going to be focused.”

“An extension to Article 50, a delay in this process, doesn’t deliver a decision in Parliament, it doesn’t deliver a deal,” she said. “All it does is precisely what the word ‘delay’ says. Any extension of Article 50 isn’t addressing the issues. We have it within our grasp. I’ve had a real sense from the meetings I’ve had here and the conversations I’ve had in recent days that we can achieve that deal.”​

PM May expressed her determination not to delay, as it would not address the core issues that are causing the delay, and considering the intransigence of both sides at this point, that does not appear to be likely to change. So she is correctly asking, delay for what practical reason? In fact, there is none, aside from possible being able to use a few more weeks to sign transitional arrangements with Japan and other countries to ensure smoother trade arrangements.

So, PM May appears to be standing firm, even though a number of her Tory party associates sound like they might be on the verge of "going wobbly".

 

I agree. Theresa May is all but shouting "Let my people go!" in her most Heston-esque voice. But much like Pharaoh with their ancient Hebrew slaves, they do not want to do it.

It is time to let them go, Donald Tusk and Jean Claude Junker.

 

Oh, good grief. Enough with the over the top alarmism, already.

The agreement was the best agreement that Theresa May could get the 27 countries of the EU to agree to. But that deal requires provisions for a "customs union," which unless the 27 countries of the EU later unanimously agree to unwind it, this will keep the UK in the EU indefinitely. As a result of that provision, the UK Parliament voted down that deal by over a 2-1 margin. They then passed an amendment to the deal which overturned that provision and sent Theresa May back to alter that one component. Except for this one element - binding the EU to let the UK actually leave - there is a deal waiting to be had right now.

Of course that is the central element of what Brexit actually is, the EU leaving the UK. But the EU does not want that, as the UK is the second largest economy in the EU and militarily, the UK is the largest and strongest. So the EU does not want the UK to leave and will do anything they can to stop it from happening. But that is after all what the voters of the UK voted to do.

Let their people go, Junker!

 

I do not think the transition will be easy, but I very certainly believe it will be benefical to the UK and detrimental to the EU.

 

The vote that was scheduled for this week has been pushed back to March 12, 2019 by Theresa May. Just FYI.