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The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Dec 4, 2016.

  1. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Well, to be fair, I do expect that the UK will pay something to the EU. Whether it is the full 39 Billion, we will see. As far as the article 50 extension, again, based on the votes on Tuesday, that currently does not appear to be in the cards.

    And the Remainers thought they were going to win on Tuesday and hijack the entire Brexit process, right there, once and for all. They were wrong, yet again.

    Panic and outrage are apparently two emotions that you love and put a very high value on. It may seem strange to you, but not everybody shares that perspective with you. In fact, people who have courage and who are not at heart cowards value doing what they think is right, even while they are uncertain about exactly what will happen next, or afraid. That is what you are witnessing here from most of the British people. And to a lesser extent, you are witnessing these traits from their elected representatives as well, difficult as that surely is for them.
     
  2. malakas

    malakas Member

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    The UK will not be able to trade on March 30 on WTO rules. Did you know that ? :)
     
  3. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    They will if countries decide to trade with them on those, or better yet, some other terms.

    Don't be surprised to see a gathering of trade representatives from around the world fly into London on March 28, 2019 in order to sign whatever agreements need to be put in place to allow them all to trade. This really is not going to be anywhere near as difficult as the panic mongers are trying to make it out to be.

    Will there be some disruptions? Sure. Could it be that some Brits in London will be unable to purchase their favorite brand of French Brie for a time? Sure.

    But the merchants of the other countries of the world are going to be virtually crawling over the top of each other to take advantage of this opportunity to replace EU merchants in the British supply chain. The governments and trade representatives from the UK and other countries around the world are already working on removing any administrative impediments to resolving any supply problems, or as these other countries see it, supply opportunities.

    You seem to think that the EU is in a position of strength here, when they really are not. The EU merchants and the people of the EU stand to be hurt by this. As a result, don't be surprised to see the EU cave towards the end of March or in the weeks shortly after Brexit on March 29, 2019.
     
  4. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Nope
    I didnt even read your post.
    The House of Lords last week didnt pass the Trade Bill.
    Without the bill, the government cannot “roll over” 40 trade deals with other countries enjoyed through EU membership that will lapse if the UK leaves without a deal.
    It will also be unable to sign up to the WTO’s general procurement agreement (GPA), in order to buy goods and services, presented by Brexiteers as the route to a no-deal future.

    All this is because the US has demanded the UK change its laws on food safety and animal welfare allowing for chlorinated chickens, hormone beef and genetically modified crops and the UK government has refused to allow the parliament to vote for these- because they know they wont pass the House of Commons.

    So tldr; the UK isnt able to trade on WTO rules on 30 March.
     
  5. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Let's just assume you are right about the UK legally being a worldwide trade quarantine zone starting on March 29, 2019 under WTO rules. What countries do you think are going to respect that? And what will the WTO do to these countries that violate your imagined trade quarantine zone?

    The UK and these other countries will sign waivers and other such documents - even after foreign ships have already unloaded their cargo, if they have to. If you think the people of the UK are going to effectively be contained and economically ostracized from being able to internationally buy and sell by the globalists in this way, then I do not even know what to say to you, other than: dream on.
     
    #525 MojoMan, Jan 31, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2019
  6. malakas

    malakas Member

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    What are you talking about? Science fiction or dystopian fantasy?
    A WTO quarantine zone that starving people will have to smuggle their food with illegal cargos? North Korea?

    Please stop the fear campaign.
    The UK government has fcked up so much with its incompetence that is without enough time. It will have to ask for more time as Jeremy Hunt admitted today.

    To extend article 50 not so as to find a solution to the Irish Backstop but merely to prepare its laws and put itself in order for no deal Brexit.
    However the EU isnt obligated to help out a country that is about to break a UN treaty and if it wasnt in the security council would face sactions for inciting terrorism and endangering peace.

    Thats why I am saying. Want to have more time? Then pay 500million euro for each month until you get yourself in order.
     
    Nook likes this.
  7. saitou

    saitou Member

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    malakas isn't saying uk can't trade at all, just that it can't trade on wto rules on 29 March due to the sheer amount of work and time needed to get its schedule certified by wto members.

    I think you are right that other countries will be very eager to reach new trade agreements post-brexit; but they will not be better than what uk already had via the EU. UK has already tried replicating the eu trade schedule but wto members have raised objections - pretty good indicator that these countries will want better terms from ok than what they got from eu.
     
    dmoneybangbang and malakas like this.
  8. malakas

    malakas Member

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    They are missing 500 basic laws and most of secondary legislation. Being unable to trade under the WTO is only one of them.
    The UK had 13.6% of their whole legislation through the EU and they have done almost nothing yet to replace them.

    Now the parliament will also have 2 weeks in February of vacation where MPs will be kindly asked if they want to show up but wont be obliged to.:rolleyes:

    The UK isnt prepared for no deal Exit
    . They foolishly believe that the March 29 deadline will make the EU blink but instead they have cornered themselves to the point that extension of the deadline is something they will have to beg for and is a one way street.

    Here is what the Institute of Government said:
     
  9. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    I'm not sure that's the case given that just to be in the EU they start out over 8 billion in the hole (not to mention having to sacrifice their national sovereignty) just to secure those deals to begin with. Since the UK is looking to buy and the EU is looking to sell competition from other markets should lead to better deals.
     
  10. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Nope, it's clearly the end of the world if the UK leaves the EU, that's what EU propaganda says and that's the only thing that matters.
     
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  11. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The UK already passed all of that into law.
    European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018

    The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (c. 16) is an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom that provides for repealing the European Communities Act 1972, and for Parliamentary approval of the withdrawal agreement being negotiated between HM Government and the European Union.

    This will enable "cutting off the source of EU law in the UK... and remove the competence of EU institutions to legislate for the UK."[1] As such, It is the most significant constitutional legislation that has been introduced by the Government since the European Communities Act itself in 1972.[1]

    To provide legal continuity, it will enable the transposition of directly-applicable already-existing EU law into UK law,[2] and so "create a new category of domestic law for the United Kingdom: retained EU law."[1] It will also give the government some restricted power to adapt and remove laws that are no longer relevant.

    The bill's passage through both Houses of Parliament was completed on 20 June 2018 and it became law by Royal Assent on 26 June. It makes future ratification of the withdrawal agreement as a treaty between the UK and EU depend upon the prior enactment of another act of Parliament for approving the final terms of withdrawal when the current Brexit negotiations are completed; and fixes 21 January 2019, at the latest, when the government must decide on how to proceed if the negotiations have not reached agreement in principle on both the withdrawal arrangements and the framework for the future relationship between the UK and EU, for Parliamentary debate.​
     
  12. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Did the UK parliament pass Mays withdrawal agreement with the EU27 while I wasnt paying attention?lol
     
  13. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    They endorsed the revised version of the deal, amended to exclude the backstop and the customs union.

    But that was not what you were complaining about that I responded to. The UK adopted all of the EU laws and regulations in one bill - the European Union (Withdrawal) Act of 2018 - as a prelude to the UK Parliament passing additional legislation transferring specific responsibilities for all of these functions to agencies and authorities within the UK. Of course this last part could well take years, but because of this law, they will have the existing EU laws in place starting on March 29, 2019.
     
  14. malakas

    malakas Member

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    No.
    The so called "deal" they have accepted aka the Brady ammendment is not worth the paper it is written on.
    Its not agreed by the other side..you know the other 27 countries.
    What you were quoting was the original May deal that was agreed and signed by the EU27 and Mays government.

    And of course if it had passed they would have adopted these laws..because you know in that case it wouldnt be "no deal".
    It would be a deal.:rolleyes:

    In the no deal incoming situation there is zero withdrawal agreement and the Uk will have to adopt these laws ON THEIR OWN from start one by one.

    I hope you can the understand the situation.
    No deal = No withdrawal agreement = Need to pass the Trade Bill to trade under WTO rules.

    Tldr; the UK cant trade under WTO rules.
     
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  15. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Well, if you are right, there is apparently nothing left to do but break down into tears and have a nervous breakdown. In fact, it appears that many of those who share your perspectives are already doing it.
     
  16. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Of course there is something to do Mojoman.
    They need to pass the laws.
    Its their fault they havent done it already. Its so embarassing so inept , criminally negligent. Two months left and they waste their time without doing the job they are paid thousands of pounds each month.

    They cant let the country Brexit with such a hole in the laws.
    Its like you had gotten married and about to get a divorce but in the meantime you have lost your ID and birth certificate just about as you were in need for a new job.
    Thats why extending article 50 is something they cant avoid even if they wanted it.

    The problem is to extend it, there is nothing in it for the EU and I dont see a reason we should do charity to save the UK from its own ineptitude.

    Of course extending past July is out of the question because there will be problems with the new european european parliament.
    But even until July they should pay for it if they want this favour.
     
  17. malakas

    malakas Member

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    It didnt take long.
    Gibraltar:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ares-as-eu-makes-travel-visa-free-for-britons

    Spain had put it off in Mays deal to be negotiated later but since there wont be any deal, they brought it up again now.

    Which means that the Brexiteers promise : "Take back control of our borders" is up in the air.
    3 months visa free stay for all the romanians and poles to visit and "steal" the seasonal farm jobs.

    The next major issue that was pulled under the rug for later is the fishing waters.
    Spain, France, Portugal, Denmark and the Netherlands have a lot depending on it so they will put on immense pressure on the UK.
     
  18. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Here is a picture of some hot British chicks sporting "No deal, No Problem" signs in the UK this week.

    [​IMG]

    Actually, they actually may be kind of cold, with the polar vortex and all. But you get the idea.
     
  19. Pole

    Pole Houston Rockets--Tilman Fertitta's latest mess.

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    This thread needs more hot chicks.
     
  20. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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