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The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Dec 4, 2016.

  1. Jugdish

    Jugdish Member

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    You guys know it's "tick tock" right, or am I missing something?
     
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  2. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    You are right. We stand corrected. :)
     
  3. Ubiquitin

    Ubiquitin Contributing Member
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    So end of January for Brexit?

    I am not sure how the UK is going to survive economically without a free trade agreement to a larger economic bloc. It’s now an island without an empire compared to pre EU UK.
     
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  4. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    I don't have time for all those letters.
     
  5. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    By trading with every other country on Earth?
     
  6. Ubiquitin

    Ubiquitin Contributing Member
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    Tariffs will make the UK uncompetitive as they have few raw resources. Why buy a UK product when a similar quality cheaper cost version exists? That’s the benefit of free trade. Fair access to markets.
     
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  7. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    This is not going to happen the way that you seem to be imagining. Virtually every country on Earth is already lining up to negotiate a "Free Trade" agreement with the UK. To be fair, these deals are almost never entirely "Free," but the tariffs between the countries are nearly always substantially reduced.

    The EU and the US will be first in line. The UK-US agreement may very well be the first one finished. The EU will very likely attempt to play games and drag this process out, which is par for the course with those people. Switzerland will probably be next. After that it should be China, but as China cannot be trusted, the UK may wait a bit to see how the current negotiations between China and the US play out before finalizing that one. Turkey will be another pretty big one for the UK, and so on, etc...

    The UK has a unique opportunity to redo all of its trade agreements along the coherent lines of a single strategy. They can rapidly establish bilateral agreements with countries across the globe, effectively rendering the WTO largely irrelevant for them. And with better terms for everyone. It should be a model of trade agreements that the rest of the world will look at with a sense of marvel and envy.

    The UK will thrive after they leave the EU. Watch and see.
     
  8. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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    It will either work out or it won't, the majority of the British people have made their choice, let's just wait and see how it works out in a few years. We should enjoy the show. Just like people there are enjoying the show president Trump is putting on in this country.
     
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  9. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    Is it even an entire island anymore?
     
  10. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    January is when the transition period begins, they're still in the trade bloc/customs union until the end of 2020.

    It's mainly because it will allow the UK to formally enter trade arrangements with other countries, which they are prohibited from as part of the EU.
     
  11. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The UK Parliament has passed the Withdrawal Agreement Bill on second reading, by a vote of 358-234.

    MPs vote by 358 to 234 to pass the withdrawal bill, paving way for January EU exit

    MPs have backed Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan for the UK to leave the EU on 31 January. They voted 358 to 234 - a majority of 124 - in favour of the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill, which now goes on to further scrutiny in Parliament.

    The bill would also ban an extension of the transition period - during which the UK is out of the EU but follows many of its rules - past 2020.​

    That is a margin of 124, compared to the Tories majority margin of 80. So the resistance has effectively surrendered. This is effectively on cruise control now and all but over.

    The bill now moves to the committee stage, after which it is expected to receive final Parliamentary approval sometime in January.
     
  12. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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    the election was a wake up call for MPs that thought they could overturn an election result without consequence

    I expect something similar is going to happen in the US come November
     
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  13. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Boris Johnson is taking an increasingly hard line now that he has a nearly bulletproof 80 seat majority in the UK Parliament. Yesterday after the vote to pass the WAB, he made clear that there will be 'no alignment' with the EU with regards to the adoption of mandatory standards in connection with the negotiation of a new trade agreement.

    Boris Johnson insists there will be 'no alignment' with the EU after Brexit

    Boris Johnson insisted that Britain would not follow any EU rules after Brexit as he set up a showdown with Brussels over a trade deal. The Prime Minister made clear that he would pursue a hard Brexit by saying there would be “no alignment” between the two sides, defying the EU’s claim that it was a “must” for any future relationship.​

    Can you imagine if the US demanded that the UK's domestic standards matched ours in order to negotiate a trade agreement? And then China did the same? And of course the EU is already trying to do it.

    Absurdity. PM Johnson is correct to insist that UK standards will be determined domestically according to the will of the UK Parliament. In competitive terms, especially with regards to taxes, this probably means that the UK will have a lower cost tax structure for businesses, making the UK in this very important way a more attractive and more competitive environment for businesses.

    But on things like product standards for export to the EU, such as no GMOs or no chlorinated chicken, that is a matter for EU customs to enforce with individual businesses importing products into the EU. The UK government really does not need to take a stand on any of that.

    Anyway, the negotiations are just starting, so it will be interesting to see if Johnson stays committed to these positions, as he should. Because it is going to upset the EU terribly that they are going to have a nation like the UK just off of their coast with some very serious competitive advantages with regards to commerce and trade. And that is likely to make the completion of this deal more difficult, more time-consuming and a no-deal exit on December 31, 2020 more likely.

    Nigel Farage should be happy with this, in any case.
     
  14. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    EU Chief Negotiator for Brexit Michael Barnier has written an article about the EU's perspective on Brexit and the upcoming trade negotiations with the UK. If you are interested in this topic as much as I am, then this article is a must-read. Here is a quote of the last few lines:

    Three New Year’s Wishes for Britain and the EU

    But, like the UK, we will keep our strategic interests in mind. We know that competing on social and environmental standards – rather than on skills, innovation, and quality – leads only to a race to the bottom that puts workers, consumers, and the planet on the losing side. Thus, any free-trade agreement must provide for a level playing field on standards, state aid, and tax matters.

    These are our three goals for 2020: to maintain a capacity to cooperate closely at the global level; to forge a strong security partnership; and to negotiate a new economic agreement (which, most likely, will have to be expanded in the years to come). If we achieve these three objectives, we will have made the most of the next year. As soon as we receive our mandate from the 27 EU member states, our team will be ready to negotiate in a constructive spirit with the UK – a country that we will always regard as a friend, ally, and partner.​
     
  15. malakas

    malakas Member

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    It's worse than you think. The WTO has collapsed so now any big fish can bully and take advantage of the UK without reprecursions.
     
  16. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Yes I can very easily imagine the US demanding other countries to match their standards that's what they have been trying to do since forever. :D
    LMAO "NGO are healthy! Chlorinated chickens are healthy! Why don't you accept that you picky people?"
    That's why I can find in the supermarket food from even australia, south africa and argentina but I can't find a single meat or vegetable from the US.

    Very simply the UK will not be allowed to import their food to the EU their market will be flooded with cheap american or chinese food and their farming industry will collapse.
     
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  17. Bandwagoner

    Bandwagoner Contributing Member

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    All of the money they send to the EU to subsidize French farmers can then go to UK farmers and ranchers. Then their consumers will have cheaper food options. Win win.




    That's what the European Food Safety Authority found 8 years after the EU banned them. Anti Science reactionaries like yourself don't really care tho.


    When examining the possibility for reaction products, no halomethanes have been reported to be formed in treatments with chlorine dioxide in water. No chlorinated organics have been found after treatments of poultry carcasses with acidified sodium chlorite. No detectable effects on the oxidation status of fatty acids in poultry carcasses were reported following treatment with peroxyacids. Furthermore, semicarbazide was not detected (limit of detection of 1 microgram/kg) in laboratory tests on poultry carcasses after treatment by immersion with acidified sodium chlorite. The Panel notes that the initial health concerns about semicarbazide are no longer relevant. As set out in previous EFSA opinion, new data showed that semicarbazide is not genotoxic in vivo. Based on conservative estimates of poultry consumption in European adults, the Panel estimated potential exposure to residues arising from these treatments. On the basis of available data and taking into account that processing of poultry carcasses (washing, cooking) would take place before consumption, the Panel considers that treatment with trisodium phosphate, acidified sodium chlorite, chlorine dioxide, or peroxyacid solutions, under the described conditions of use, would be of no safety concern.

    https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2006.297
     
    #2257 Bandwagoner, Dec 22, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2019
  18. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Oh yes. I am sure that Johnson has shown plenty of signs that he will support the farming and the fishing industry like the EU has been doing. :D

    Already this summer the british apples and berries were left rotting since cheap seasonal EU workers didn't feel welcome to come and work.
     
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  19. FrontRunner

    FrontRunner Member

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    (A year ago.)

     
  20. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Boris Johnson is pushing for extradition of Anna Sacoolas, the wife of the US Diplomat who was charged with running over and killing Harry Dunn in England before fleeing the country back to the US.

    This should be interesting. PM Johnson's actions are perfectly reasonable here. As will AG Barr's if he were to subpoena or indict Prince Andrew, should cause be determined to exist for either of those actions. But the other sides are both either refusing to comply or expected to not comply.

    Stay tuned.
     
    #2260 MojoMan, Dec 23, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2019

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