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The future of the EU and the UK, post-Brexit

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Dec 4, 2016.

  1. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    A longer extension offer seems more likely than a shorter one for this very reason. There is currently talk about a shorter extension. Maybe so, but I will believe it when I see it.
     
  2. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    With the EU supposedly providing its proposal for an extension on Friday, on Monday Boris Johnson is apparently going to call for a general election on December 12.

    Johnson confirms plan for December 12 election

    Speaking after the cabinent meeting, Mr Johnson said: "In the debate on Tuesday about Brexit Labour said they need more time to look at the detail - but the Labour Party couldn’t even find enough speakers.
    "We've had three years to discuss this. We've been very reasonable."

    Saying he was pushing for an election on December 12, he added: "I don’t think people of this country believe that Parliament is really going to do it by then."​
     
  3. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Bwahahaha. The new President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is insisting that the UK must appoint a commissioner to the EU Commission, if they want an extension.

    Brussels insists Boris Johnson names UK commissioner if Brexit delayed

    Boris Johnson could be forced into a humiliating U-turn after the next president of the European Commission said Britain must name an EU commissioner to serve in Brussels if the bloc grants a delay to the October 31 Brexit deadline.

    The Prime Minister refused to nominate a replacement commissioner to Julian King in the new commission because Britain would leave the EU on Halloween and he wanted to “unshackle” UK officials to concentrate on Brexit.

    “There might be an extension and the UK will still be in the EU. Then of course I would ask the UK to send a commissioner,” Ursula von der Leyen told reporters on Thursday, the day before an expected EU decision on the UK extension request.​


    So, let me get this straight. If the UK government does NOT want an extension, then all they have to do is refuse to appoint this commissioner person?

    LOL. Obviously PM Johnson should just refuse to appoint one then, as he already has been doing.
     
  4. Rashmon

    Rashmon Contributing Member

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    Good. Allows a chance for sanity to prevail.
     
  5. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  6. malakas

    malakas Member

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    If the government does not want, it will be forced to do it anyway like they were forced to send a letter asking for an extension.
    It is a minority government and not in charge.
     
  7. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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    this

    despite vowing to uphold the referendum result in their election manifestos (before and after the referendum), parliament does not want to implement it

    they should be sacked on that basis alone
     
  8. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Well, that certainly has not happened yet. And until it does, no commissioner will be appointed by the UK.

    The EU has now apparently put the UK's extension request on hold as a result of Boris Johnson's proposal to call a general election and the opposition's proposal to block that proposal. If the EU does not respond back by early next week, the UK will be out of the EU next Thursday.

    Suffice it to say that there will apparently not be time for the UK to vote on requiring the appointment of a commissioner to the EU before an extension offer is made, or before the UK leaves the EU next Thursday, whichever comes first.
     
  9. malakas

    malakas Member

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    First of all there is 0 chance that the EU lets no deal happen because they "fail to respond". It's only political games to put more pressure and to clarify the situation. Don't be so naive.

    Secondly there will be no time for a new law? Aren't you aware that the Letwin amendment that forced the government to ask for an extension in the first place passed in 3 days?
    There is a huge anti no deal Brexit majority in both houses.
    And the only reason it took so long it was because the Lords filibustered. But they wouldn't dare to do that when it comes to cliff edge. With no filibustering any new amendment like that will pass in a single day.

    And if the government tries to not put any law for voting, the Speaker has already allowed the parliament to take in charge of the procceedings many times before.
     
  10. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    If the EU responds back on Monday, that will leave the UK Parliament - both houses - 3 days to complete this task.
     
  11. malakas

    malakas Member

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    and?
     
  12. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Time is starting to run short and we both know what the default law of the land still is on this subject.
     
  13. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Don't worry there will not be an accident no deal. Even if there was a single day left, they would pass the law through.

    The Tories in the Lords, are "one nation" who believe in business. Most of old guard would have been thrown out or rebelled. It is only the new Tory leadership that have changed their policies to the extreme. Even when they filibustered they did it only as a show of protest because the law isn't supposed to pass through without scrutiny, that's the constitutional role of the Lords, and not because they really wanted to block it.

    And we all know how the lower parliament is like.

    This is a parliametary democracy. A government has only as much power as parliament allows it to exercise.
     
  14. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    French President Macron has apparently blocked the approval of the UK Parliament's Brexit deadline extension request. The EU Counsel had been expected to make its final decision today. With that, the UK would have had four days next week to get that response approved by Parliament - both the Commons and the Lords.

    However, it could be that no further approval is required by Parliament as long as the EU approves the request under exactly the terms that the UK Parliament originally requested. I am not sure about that.

    Macron Blocked EU’s Decision to Delay Brexit
    French President Emmanuel Macron blocked the European Union’s attempt to delay Brexit for three months, raising the prospect the U.K. might not know whether it will get an extension until just hours before it is scheduled to be ejected on Oct. 31, even without a deal.

    At a meeting in Brussels on Friday morning, diplomats from the EU’s 27 remaining countries deferred a decision on the postponement. While none of them want to be seen interfering in the U.K.‘s domestic politics, France is at loggerheads with the others.

    Macron wants to grant a delay until Nov. 30, or even sooner, to put pressure on the House of Commons to back Boris Johnson’s deal. Other EU governments see that as too much of a gamble because it could lead to a no-deal Brexit. They are pushing to postpone Brexit until Jan. 31 to allow time for a general election.​


    In any case, this is a surprise, to say the least. Macron wants a shorter delay, until the end of November at the latest. Or, that is what the story is for public consumption. So much of this is negotiating tactics and propaganda games that it is hard to tell where the truth stops and the lies start with these people.

    So this decision by the EU has apparently been postponed until Monday or Tuesday of next week. They seemingly want to make sure that a general election has been agreed to by Parliament when they vote on that early next week, if that vote actually happens. And if Macron were to continue to insist on a different extension deadline than the one originally proposed by the UK Parliament, then whatever the new deadline is would have to be approved by both the Commons and the Lords.

    Just as a reminder, October 31 is next Thursday. If nothing is done before then, then the default law of the land is still to leave on that date, regardless of any other arrangements that have or have not been made.
     
  15. malakas

    malakas Member

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    It is propaganda and political games.

    If Macron really thought like that, he would just veto now or in the past. Why hasn't he? Because he only does this for the french voters to see.
     
    MojoMan likes this.
  16. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    That is what I think, too. But they did not have to wait until the last three days to go through this exercise. So, this will be exciting to watch, even if they approve the request at the last minute, as expected.
     
  17. malakas

    malakas Member

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    It is really sad state of the EU and irresponsible that Macron is playing with the future of another country for internal politics.

    He already caused this week the FYROM president to resign when he vetoed the start of their induction talks.

    But this is what it is.
    The UK has put itself in the position for their future to depend on their old traditional enemies who never wanted them in, in the first place.
    De Gaule had warned the EU that the Brits would cause trouble, and vetoed the UK entering multiple times.
    There is absolutely no love lost.

    Now they already blackmailed them to get benefits with the fishing waters in the WTA and this will also continue when the actual trade deal talks start.
     
  18. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    French President Macron has backed off of his suggestion that he would veto a Brexit extension, and the three month extension proposed by the UK Parliament to January 31, 2020 has been agreed to.

    Emmanuel Macron caves over Brexit extension, as EU agrees three month delay

    The European Union has agreed a three month extension to the October 31 Brexit deadline, in a boost to Boris Johnson’s hopes of forcing a general election. Emmanuel Macron had blocked an EU decision on extension on Friday because he opposed a longer delay than 15 days without clear guarantees of a ratification plan or a general election.

    EU27 ambassadors approved an extension to January 31, 2020 in a 20 minute meeting in Brussels on Monday morning. The plan allows the “flextension” to end early if the deal is ratified by the House of Commons and European Parliament, meaning Brexit Day could be 11pm on Saturday, November 30, Tuesday, December 31 or Friday, January 31.​

    The UK Parliament is in a state of Gordian knot level deadlock. There must be a general election.

    Recognizing this, UK PM Boris Johnson put forward a motion under the Fixed Parliaments Act (which requires 2/3 support by Parliament) to hold a general election on December 12, 2019. That vote failed to pass, 299-70, as Labour abstained. But the Lib Dems and the SNP have apparently seen enough and are now ready to back a general election.

    Boris Johnson’s plans for a Dec 12 election voted down by MPs, but Government will try again for an early election

    MPs voted by 299 to 70 in favour of an early general election tonight, but it fell short of the 434 MPs needed to get through as Labour refused to vote.

    The PM has now confirmed he will back an SNP-Liberal Democrat one-line bill plot instead, which will come back to the Commons from tomorrow. That would only require 50 per cent of votes to push through instead, and would be far more likely to succeed.​

    So PM Johnson has tabled a bill that would enable a general election that only requires a simple majority, with the support of the Lib Dems and the SNP, with the vote scheduled for tomorrow. In fact, with only a simple majority required, it appears that Labour may vote to support this bill as well, as their abstention again would be pointless and also a show of the fear that they are rightfully experiencing in advance of the expected clock-cleaning that they are expected to receive from this next election.

    I have to say, I am surprised to see the SNP and the Lib Dems supporting this bill for a general election in December, as it looks like the opposition is likely going to lose and the Tories are going to come out of this stronger and very possibly in a position to control the outcome of the outcome of the Brexit agenda in a way that they currently are not.

    Nevertheless, opposition parties are supposed to always be wanting an election, as that suggests a lack of confidence in the current leadership arrangements. This is true even here. But maybe not in the way that they would hope.
     
  19. malakas

    malakas Member

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    No thats wrong.
    The Lib Dems and the SNP support a bill for a 9 December elections. Johnson rejected that and wants a 12 December election that will be put on vote tomorrow.
    The Lib Dems and the SNP haven't decided yet if they will support it.

    The difference in the dates is basically that the SNP and Lib Dems want Johnson not to put his WTA on vote before elections. They don't want to Brexit before elections happen. Johnson has rejected their offer.
     
  20. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Well, I have read several article on this and they are not consistent on what is going on with regards to these points. It appears to me that Johnson rejected a bill that the Lib Dems and the SNP themselves were going to propose, and then decided to propose a bill of his own that is nearly identical. As far as the dates, they are three days apart and surely this can be worked out.

    On the proposal to not to put the WAB to Parliament again before the election, I suspect that Johnson would be positively elated to agree to that condition. If the elections turn out the way that he is hoping, he will be able to do pretty much whatever he wants as soon as the new Parliament convenes. This parliament is so deadlocked, it is positively hopeless. Why bother trying to force anything else through for approval by this lot?

    If Johnson can get Parliament to agree to a general election before the end of the year, that is the best outcome he can hope for right now.

    Hopefully there will not be any shenanigans around this vote tomorrow. I certainly would not rule that possibility out.
     

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