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[The Atlantic] The Geography of Partisan Prejudice

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Os Trigonum, Mar 4, 2019.

  1. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    fascinating article in the Atlantic with the following graphic:

    political partisanship map.jpeg

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...-vary-their-degree-partisan-prejudice/583072/

    more at the link
     
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  2. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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  3. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    Why is the entire state of Florida more prejudiced?
     
  4. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    Looks like the places where no one lives are the least prejudiced.
     
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  5. Buck Turgidson

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    Why is Florida Florida?
     
  6. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    Not surprised Bay Area is considered very prejudiced.

    Load of stuck up mofos up there.
     
  7. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title
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    Harris County REPRESENT
     
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  8. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    I think they must have some kind of methodology problem. Does it sound reasonable that every county in Florida is highly prejudiced, and then the counties right across the border in Georgia are very low in prejudice? In fact, most of Georgia is pretty low on prejudice, but South Carolina very high. South Carolina is even weirder because it is almost uniformly high prejudice, but I'm supposed to believe the surrounding counties of North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, and Alabama are low prejudice. What is in the water in South Carolina that they are so different from these other Deep South states? Seems fishy.
     
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  9. Nook

    Nook Member

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    I am highly dubious of this map.

    Illinois is not a very politically tolerant state at all.
     
  10. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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    Prejudiced or just not interested in socialism?
     
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  11. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    I don't usually like to second-guess study methodology because I'm not a statistician. But, I gotta wonder about this one. There are 3,000 counties in the US, and they surveyed 2,000 people. To get county-level granularity, they used this survey to find correlations between political prejudice and demographic characteristics like age, race, urbanicity, partisan loyalty, and education. Then, they got county-level demographic data for these characteristics and modeled the prejudice given each county's mix. In other words, what their survey actually found was that older, white, urban, educated, partisan people are more politically prejudiced. And then they mapped out where those older, white, urban, educated, partisan people live.

    I think the survey is worth something. The map isn't worth anything. It implies a level of precision they just don't have. They don't know that the older, white, urban, educated, partisan people in Idaho are any more or less politically intolerant than the older, white, urban, educated, partisan people in Massachusetts. They only know that Massachusetts has a lot of those people. Perhaps in their survey, they found that geography was not a significant variable on intolerance, so they feel justified in making this leap to the county map. Imo, if geography isn't a significant driver, you shouldn't imply that it is by mapping it.
     
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  12. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    nonsense, you can trust this survey because, well, just consider the source! I have a system--the fool-proof @NewRoxFan "early detection bias alarm system"™ and it assures me that the Atlantic checks out. Guaranteed this is no right-wing site paid for with Exxon blood money, so that should satisfy the "of substance" requirement that @Sweet Lou 4 2 is recently enforcing.

    so bottom line . . . you can trust these results with confidence. Bona fide leftie-center-y source:

    the Atlantic bias.jpeg
     
  13. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    Do you ever actually engage in discussion on the subject matter you link or are all your posts devoid of links just D&D drama with other posters?
     
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  14. BruceAndre

    BruceAndre Member

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    LOL, that is hilarious. :D I used to get the Atlantic, until it too succumbed to TDS. :(
     
  15. tallanvor

    tallanvor Contributing Member

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    I find it stupid that political prejudice just dead stops at state borders. makes no sense. Apparently as soon as you cross that Florida northern border, you run into radically different people who are no longer politically prejudice...
     
  16. Buck Turgidson

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    Yep. Locally for me, it's funny how you go from most prejudiced in Llano and Gillespie counties to least prejudiced right next door in Mason.

    I'm just gonna go ahead and declare shenanigans on this map.
     
  17. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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  18. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    The
    It probably is the way they are collecting local data that biases the results.

    To do this kind of study, Step 1 you use that survey of 2,000 people nationally to create a model of traits nationally around intolerance. What characteristics define someone as an intolerant partisan?

    Step 2: Then you have a database of hundreds of thousands of people with many characteristics associated with each person, then you match that to the results of step 1 to define their bias.

    The problem is that you the way the data is collected on these characteristics can influence the study - for example, maybe you get political data on people in South Carolina differently than North Carolina - thus producing weird results.
     
  19. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    worth a look

    http://theglitteringeye.com/are-we-actually-more-partisan/


    Are We Actually More Partisan?
    by Dave Schuler

    In a piece at The New Republic Walter Shapiro argues that voters are more polarized now that at any other time in American history:

    The current level of sustained political balance in Congress is unprecedented.

    Since the Civil War, there never have been back-to-back congressional elections in which the margins in both the House and the Senate were this tight. The closest parallel came during the George W. Bush years, when neither party had more than 51 votes in the Senate from 2001 to 2005. But thanks to the Republicans gaining House seats in the 2002 election (largely because of the rally-around-the-flag aftermath of the September 11 attacks), House Speaker Denny Hastert possessed more breathing room than Kevin McCarthy (or whoever arises from the coming GOP chaos) will have in January.

    Looking at a map of the United States, Democrats might understandably feel anxious. The small-state bias in the Senate (and, as a result, the Electoral College) prompted Mother Jones’s Ari Berman to calculate that 30 Republican senators hail from 15 states whose population collectively is smaller than California with its two Democratic senators. The 2024 Senate map makes these calculations seem even more daunting with Democrats having to defend such ruby-red states as Montana (Jon Tester), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), and West Virginia (Joe Manchin).

    Small wonder that smart political commentators assume that the current status quo will continue ad infinitum. Writing for CNN, Ron Brownstein anticipated that the 2024 presidential race (no matter who is on the ballot) will again come down to Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin. As Brownstein put it, “Each side in an intensely polarized nation of 330 million recognizes that the overall direction of national policy now pivots on the choices of a minuscule number of people living in the tiny patches of contested political ground—white-collar suburbs of Atlanta and Phoenix, working-class Latino neighborhoods in and around Las Vegas and the mid-sized communities of the so-called BOW counties in Wisconsin.”

    I don’t think that’s what’s been happening at all. I think that
    1. Information and technology have made gerrymandering more successful than at any other time in American history.
    2. The party leadership in both political parties, largely driven by money, have become more extreme.
    3. Both parties, driven by the extreme politics of their leaderships, are being transformed into programmatic parties—something they’ve never been before.
    4. The stakes as measured by the power and reach of the federal government are higher than ever before.
    The net outcome is that voters have largely retained the views they’ve been holding while the parties are decreasingly representative of those views. As evidence for that I’d submit the decreasing party roll for both parties and the increasing number of those who identify themselves as independents.

    I’m not very sanguine about fixing that. There are all sorts of things that might help like increasing the size of the House, divvying up some of the states, reducing the power of the Congressional leadership, and cracking down on gerrymandering. Under a system with representation based on geographical-based districts is it really too much to ask that the districts be geographically based? Here’s the 2022 Illinois Congressional district map:

    [​IMG]

    As should be obvious it’s one gerrymander after the other. Grotesquely so. Adopting the measures above might have the effect of moderating both parties as they actually needed to compete for votes.

    But the incentives would remain and the incentives point to large, corrupt, autocratic parties so that’s where we’re headed.
     

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