The Astros "system"

I think it's a little of both. There's been a lot of a lack of luck. There's simply no way there will be this many guys hitting below .200 for the entire season. That is what is really exciting, if you think about it. Many of the guys haven't hit as well as they're capable of, yet. Imagine what this all looks like when those hard outs start falling in.

 

Exciting when they're winning, extremely frustrating when they lose. I'm not sure they have intentionally built this team to be this way. I don't recall any teams that were built to swing mercifully for the fences, maybe as you stated it is what he was able to get at the moment. It does appear that in the minors they are a more obp ops type of organization, I am enjoying the ride and expect to have a fun summer.

 

I really don't think that Luhnow wants a line up that is this off kilter.

 

Keep in mind that Lowrie has been substituted with Margo/Villar. I think our average and single rate would be higher if he was still in the lineup everyday. But I agree. As the BAbip comes up, our hits will rise as well. Weird to think this lineup still has room to go...

Spoiler

And Correa isn't even here yet

 

The only thing I can think is that, similar to a simplified explanation of Billy Beane's Moneyball being "walks are undervalued", Luhnow might feel that strikeouts are over-villainized. He saw players that K'd a lot but did other things well as consistently undervalued players and sought those guys out figuring he could get them on the cheap relative to what they provide. So while the coaches aren't necessarily instructing the hitters to swing for the fences and take a lot of pitches, the players they have amassed have that mindset more than most team's players do.

 

It may be a bit of a moneyball result. Moneyball is not really about OBP and all that - it's just about finding what other people are undervaluing. It could be that power was simply "cheaper" this offseason because everyone is chasing other things and thus was where they could get the most in return in trades. Maybe in the new era of small ball, guys like Gattis who hit for power but strikeout a lot and don't seem to have any plate discipline are now undervalued.

 

This does not appear to be the system at least regarding players acquired without MLB experience.

Guys Luhnow has acquired
Correa, Moran, Tucker, Ruiz (Traded), Torreyes (DFA, traded?), Phillips, Fisher, Fontana (surprised he makes as much contact as he does considering he never swings), and Kemp all have shown average to above average contact skills in the minors.

Davis and Reed are the only ones that really stick out as potentially having contact issues at the higher levels of the minors.

Going from minors to majors is a big jump. it appears the Astros think good contact skills gives better odds for MLB value than the guys that knock the snot out of the ball, but hit it less frequently.

From these guys, it looks like Astros value getting on base and contact skills for non-MLB players more than the average MLB team. Astros like HRs, but so does everyone else. I do think other teams value Ks for hitters more negatively than the Astros. This would explain why the Astros got Carter and Gattis.

Astros also value club control Pre-Arb and Arb years more than other teams on average. Very few trades since Luhnow has been here that the Astros have ended up with less club control Pre-Arb and Arb years.

 

Okay, I am slow. Raven and Major have very good points.

 

Luhnow tried to build a 500 team this year. I'm guessing here, but it would not surprise me at all, that Luhnow was planning on next year as his Astros first year to compete for a playoff spot. I'm also guessing that when the Astros do get to the playoffs the team construction will look closer to the Cardinals than their current construction.

 

While its nice to have guys with power and good OBP, offensively speaking, having one or the other is essential.

Which brings me to ones that have neither.

Marwin, Villar & Grossman. Well, we saw what happened to Grossman.

Its also not hard to see both the other two displaced when Lowrie gets healthy and Correa gets promoted.

All our home runs will do that more damage if guys are on base when they occur. So I am excited that by the all star break, and the above changes are fully employed, our offense may just that more dangerous.

 

Aaron Ashcraft, aka "(Not Hank) Aaron," writes for Astros County.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In May, Springer has a 27.7% walk rate, a 19.1% k rate, a .091 BABIP, good for a .147/.383/.441 line. Weirdest 139 wRC+ ever.</p>&mdash; Aaron Ashcraft (@Aarcraft9) <a href="https://twitter.com/Aarcraft9/status/601005350163218432">May 20, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

It's a strange phenomenon that I've never seen. I'm curious if the Astros percentage of runs scored vs relievers is much higher than the rest of the league. Also, if the number of pitches seen per strikeout are higher than the rest of the league. Being league leaders in walks and strikeouts means tons of pitches being thrown which should theoretically get you to the opponent's bullpen quicker. In a way you could say a strikeout could be a more productive out than other outs depending on the number of pitches thrown. Or you could say, any plate appearance with 7+ pitches seen is a highly productive out even if it's a strikeout.

 

Seriously doubt that is the way Luhnow plans to build the team long term...but

We have SO MANY power/k guys, and it's pretty likely we get a HR or two each night. Even when a few of the guys are slumping, chances are someone is going to pound one out before the game is over because we have so many of the power guys. Sure, there will be two or three game streaks where it just doesn't happen, but there will also be little streaks where we put up big numbers.

I think Luhnow knew that power was down across baseball, and he was going to acquire as much of it as he could without giving up much in the way of long term assets. I would guess his long term plan is to have 3-4 guys in the lineup who are much better overall hitters (Altuve, Correa, ?, ?) mixed in with 4-5 power guys. Think of the HR's we are hitting now, but add in a lineup with 4 good on base guys, and development of a guy like Springer...

We could be really good, for a really long time