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Texans trade DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by J.R., Mar 16, 2020.

  1. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I've made this joke several times - it gets less joke-y each time......
     
  2. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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  3. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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    Nook and joshuaao like this.
  4. ktex

    ktex Member

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    I'm still so ****ing pissed. I just watched the Saints game highlights. We are going to be so much worse without DHop. I just cannot believe this crap.
     
  5. blackistan

    blackistan Member

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    I think we already knew this but the DHop trade just verified it for all of us
     
  6. blackistan

    blackistan Member

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    I think we already knew this but the DHop trade just verified it for all of us
     
  7. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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  8. Fantasma Negro

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    I'm guessing they meet at four years 80 mil, 70 guaranteed
     
  9. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    https://theathletic.com/1711333/202...t-the-texans-offense-without-deandre-hopkins/

    The DeAndre Hopkins trade remains the most shocking move of the NFL offseason, but reality has started to settle in. On a conference call with Houston reporters last week, new Texans slot man Randall Cobb admitted a lot of pressure rides on the team’s reconfigured receiving corps.

    “People are looking at me as coming in and being a replacement, even though me and DeAndre are two totally different types of receivers,” Cobb said. “I look forward to the challenge and coming in and showing what I can do.”

    Cobb’s right that he’s far from a perfect substitute. The Texans aren’t trying to fill the Hopkins void with one man, but with a group that’ll also include Kenny Stills and Will Fuller on the outside and running backs David and Duke Johnson catching passes out of the backfield.

    Another receiver, added through the draft, figures to join the mix. But as things stand now, here’s an analytical breakdown of where the Texans will miss Hopkins most and the parts of their offense they figure to emphasize with their new personnel.

    Deep passing

    Deshaun Watson targeted Hopkins 20-plus yards downfield 59 times while they were teammates, the most such targets of any Texans receiver during that time. But Fuller, despite missing 15 of Watson’s career starts, isn’t far behind at 45 targets.

    Code:
    When the Texans went deep in 2019
    
    Player         Targets 20-plus Yards Downfield   Catches   TDs    Yards Per Target
    Will Fuller     23                               9         2      15.1
    DeAndre Hopkins 22                               9         3      12.5
    Kenny Stills    10                               7         2      26.4
    At least when it comes to this part of the game, Hopkins’ departure leaves a sizable but arguably fillable hole within the offense. Stills figures to receive more targets, especially deep, but they’ll come at the cost of his efficiency. In a larger role, he’s unlikely to continue to haul in 72.7 percent of his targets, as he did in his last season.

    Cobb only received nine targets 20-plus yards downfield in his lone season with the Cowboys, but his playmaking after the catch helped him record 15 explosive plays, which are gains of at least 20 yards. That was Cobb’s most since 2014, when he received his lone Pro Bowl nod, and he’ll need to replicate that production in Houston, where a season ago his new team was hurting for chunk plays.

    The Texans ranked 21st in explosive pass plays last season, with 51, despite Watson tying for 7th in completion percentage 20-plus yards downfield (40.8). Given this underwhelming result and Fuller’s injury history, will the Texans pursue another deep threat in the draft? Or will they look to add a possession receiver similar to Hopkins, someone whom Watson can turn to even when the receiver is not quite open?

    Slot production

    The Texans have cycled through an underwhelming list of slot receivers since O’Brien’s arrival, from Damaris Johnson and Cecil Shorts to Keke Coutee and DeAndre Carter. In each of the past two seasons — first because of Coutee’s durability issues, then because Coutee lost O’Brien’s trust — the Texans mostly operated without a traditional slot receiver. Hopkins led the team in slot targets. This past season, Hopkins’ usage there compared to all other Texans receivers was especially lopsided.

    Code:
    2019 Texans receivers out of the slot
    
    Player            Targets Catches Yards First Downs First Down Percentage
    DeAndre Hopkins   62      44      450    26          59.1
    Kenny Stills      24      16      230    11          68.8
    Will Fuller       23      16      140    6           37.5
    Keke Coutee       21      13      171    7           53.8
    Jordan Akins      18      13      139    8           61.5
    DeAndre Carter    6       4       70     2           50
    The Texans will try to replace this production with a player more traditionally suited for the role in Cobb, the first reliable slot receiver O’Brien has had. Seventy-two of Cobb’s 83 targets in Dallas came from the slot, and 74 percent of Cobb’s catches out of the slot went for first downs, the second-highest rate of any receiver with at least 40 such receptions last season.

    “When I watch (Watson’s) highlights, a lot of the routes that were ran by the slot receivers are a lot of the stuff that I'm used to in my career,” said Cobb, who previously played for the Packers. “I've ran a lot of routes out of the slot, just being my primary position for most of my career.

    “When I played with (Aaron) Rogers my first eight years, a lot of what he did was late in the play — scrambling around, moving around — (led to me) just being able to find ways to get open after the initial route and create separation and be a target and find a way to get open for him in those situations. I see a lot of the same characteristics in Deshaun, the way he's able to escape the pocket and keep his eyes downfield and find receivers."

    Perhaps there’s still a role for Coutee, who is entering his third pro season, but it only became harder to find following Cobb’s arrival. The Texans are bringing back Carter on a one-year deal, primarily to be their return man, but by the end of last season, Carter had jumped Coutee on the depth chart. As of now, Carter seems in line to be Cobb’s top backup.

    Targeting running backs

    In his first two full seasons as a starter, Watson has thrown to running backs less than most. His 71 running back targets in 2019 ranked 24th among QBs. The year before, Watson tied for 27th. Even when only considering first and second downs, to avoid a disproportionate number of check downs, Watson has never ranked higher than 24th.

    But with David and Duke Johnson now serving as the team’s top backs, the passing game figures to be running back-heavy, featuring far more throws out of two-back sets than the seven Watson attempted all of last season. During David Johnson’s All-Pro campaign in 2016, when he played at a level the Texans are betting he can return to, he received 120 targets. He’s never seen fewer than 57 in a fully healthy year.

    Among backs with at least 100 receptions since David Johnson entered the league in 2013, the new Texans running back leads the way with 10.7 yards per reception. Duke Johnson isn’t far behind, at 9.2 yards per reception. So when it comes to the passing game, Houston’s new backfield is relatively explosive. But does that mean increasing running backs’ involvement in the passing game makes sense?

    As The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin explains in this 2019 article, analytics argue no. Passing to running backs is like basketball’s mid-range shot. Use it to keep defenses honest, but not any more than necessary. These passes rarely attack opponents downfield, and when they do, running backs unsurprisingly aren’t as efficient receivers as, well, actual receivers.

    “Expecting running backs to catch passes downfield as well as wide receivers would be a little like expecting pitchers to hit as well as position players,” Baldwin writes. “Running backs are further disadvantaged on pass plays by lining up behind the line of scrimmage most of the time and thus taking longer to get downfield.”

    Of Watson’s 52 throws to running backs on first and second downs last season, just six traveled more than five yards past the line of scrimmage. And the inefficiency won’t go away if the Texans simply motion their two Johnsons out of the backfield. For their careers, while lining up away from the backfield, Duke and David Johnson have averaged 11.9 and 10.1 yards per catch, respectively. Those are averages many receivers surpass — including Hopkins every year prior to this past one, when he managed 11.2 YPC, thanks in part to the lowest average target depth of his career.



    Closing thoughts

    The Texans, who ranked 16th offensive efficiency this past season with one of the game’s best quarterback-receiver combos, have gotten rid of that receiver and added a struggling running back. They appear likely to lean more into a less-efficient passing game. The reasons for skepticism are obvious.

    Fuller recording his first fully healthy season would go a long way toward minimizing some of the Texans’ potential issues, but history says chances of that are slim. So the Texans’ hopes of salvaging this situation are arguably more dependent upon Cobb maintaining last season’s level of play as he enters his 30s, David Johnson having a resurgence and O’Brien adding the right, instant-impact receiver through the draft.

    All are possible, but throwing to Hopkins 150 times looks like a more reliable option.
     
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  10. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Arizona Cardinals

    Analysts crushed the Houston Texans for trading receiver DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for running back David Johnson and a second-round pick. The team on the other end of that trade — Arizona — would seem to deserve some credit.

    “It is amazing in the NFL that some trades are so lopsided still,” an exec said. “The Hopkins thing was a joke. How the David Johnson contract was included in the deal just astounds me.”

    The Cardinals had no desire to feature Johnson in 2020 and no way to escape his fully guaranteed $10.2 million salary unless another team acquired the 28-year-old back with 1,308 yards and a 3.6-yard per carry average over the past three seasons. Enter the Texans, who scooped up Johnson and his contract, enabling Arizona to use the transition tag for its preferred running back, Kenyan Drake, at a cost of $8.4 million in 2020 salary.

    The inclusion of Johnson in the deal reminded another exec of the time in 2016 when the Eagles moved up in the draft by trading Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso to the Dolphins. That deal extricated Philadelphia from bad contracts when the Dolphins had greater flexibility under the salary cap.

    “On that one, it was like, ‘Wait, who is getting what picks here?'” this exec said. “On this one, Arizona was basically screwed on the David Johnson contract and Houston just bailed them out.”

    Hopkins gives the Cardinals a 6-foot-1, 212-pound receiver who turns 28 in June and has averaged 105 receptions with 1,371 yards per season from 2017-19. Evaluators agreed that Hopkins has slowed some, but they thought he’d become an ideal target for second-year Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray.

    “You have to give Arizona the win just on the historical production even though they would probably tell you Hopkins is not going to produce that way, at that level, for the length of the contract if he does get an extension,” an exec said. “The ability to get out from Johnson, I can’t recall if another one like that exists, where a team acquired a high-level player and also was able to divest itself of a negative contract.”

    Hopkins has three years remaining on his contract. Whether he plays on that deal or reaches an agreement on an extension will become an important component in evaluating the trade from Arizona’s standpoint. Other teams have drawn criticism for acquiring players such as Laremy Tunsil (Texans) and Jalen Ramsey (Rams) without reaching extensions first.

    “Hopkins is really, really good on broken plays, so with Kyler Murray’s mobility, he should put up big numbers for a year or two,” an exec said.

    Arizona got less favorable reviews for signing defensive lineman Jordan Phillips to a three-year, $30 million deal. The Cardinals, burned by 2016 first-round pick Robert Nkemdiche, are betting on another talented and highly drafted defensive lineman whose career began poorly. Phillips did enjoy a breakout season with Buffalo in 2019, collecting 9.5 sacks.

    “I like what Arizona did overall and if they can string together a good draft this year, they will really be on the upswing based on what they did last year,” an evaluator said. “But I do not see it with Phillips. Miami cut him because he wouldn’t play, then Buffalo picked him up and got a highly motivated player who played well, but I still see him as a two-down player who will revert to doing the minimum now that he is paid handsomely.”


    Houston Texans

    Teams were not shocked the Texans traded Hopkins. Several execs said Houston had gauged teams’ interest in the receiver even last season. What shocked teams was what Houston got in return for Hopkins and a fourth-round pick: Cardinals running back David Johnson and Johnson’s guaranteed $10.2 million salary, plus a second-round pick and a 2021 fourth-rounder. Many execs said unkind things about this trade and the job Texans coach Bill O’Brien is doing as GM. We’ll get to some of their criticisms, but first, in the interests of fairness, does anyone sort of see what the Texans were thinking here?

    “They have been shopping the guy (Hopkins) for a year-and-a-half, so let’s not pretend they do not know what the market is,” an exec said of Houston. “They clearly knew the market. Other teams were scared of the market, and I think with players like Hopkins who have actually held out, there is fear of what the contract looks like. Do I think they should have taken on David Johnson? No, they did not do a great deal, but they were at a point where they just wanted to move on, and that is the danger of having the head coach being the GM.”

    Hopkins has three years remaining on his contract. Another exec suggested the Texans feared setting a bad precedent by reworking that deal, were already budgeting for Deshaun Watson’s second contract, planned to target receivers in the draft and had some lingering concerns stemming from Hopkins’ availability for practice, which at its worst included the receiver playing in games without participating in warmups.

    “I’m in the minority here,” a former head coach said, “but I can understand what Houston is doing. The coach did not like Hopkins and then he is all over the place as a player. I don’t know how well he runs anymore. It’s hard to evaluate when that is the guy the quarterback is going to throw to all the time, and he is a scrambling quarterback who is buying time. It’ll be the same thing in Arizona. You can argue what they got for him, but if you believe in the back like they obviously do, you feel like you got a No. 1 pick (Johnson) and you got a No. 2 pick. O’Brien is looking at it that way.”

    Others are not looking at it that way.

    Evaluators agreed that Hopkins has declined, with one comparing him to Larry Fitzgerald several years ago, when Fitzgerald’s numbers were still robust, but his physical attributes had eroded some.

    “Still, I could not pull any punches,” this evaluator said. “There was just no way to spin it. People were texting their buddies from the Cardinals. Look, I’m not as anti-running back as the analytics guys are, but even having said that, it is mind-blowing, especially when you see what Minnesota got in the (Stefon) Diggs trade.”

    Johnson should be a much better fit for the Texans’ offense than he was in the offense Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury reconfigured last season, well after Arizona had struck a long-term deal with Johnson. Still, there are other productive backs, including Carlos Hyde, although Johnson offers much more as a receiver.

    “I really like Hopkins, I wouldn’t give him up and I can find a running back comparable to David Johnson,” a former GM said. “Hopkins is already making $14 million. You pay him $19 million. Big deal. You get a couple more years. I don’t trust those decision makers in Houston. They scare me. There is too much of a coach mindset. What do I need today?”

    Another exec thought the situation in Houston was regrettable enough for Watson to resist entering into contract talks until ownership commits to a more conventional structure, or at least commits to employing a prominent personnel evaluator to balance out O’Brien.

    “There is a team-building philosophy to trade your best player to replenish your roster,” another exec said. “If they had gotten more for Hopkins, this would all make sense. They are going to be able to replace Hopkins with that second-round pick based off the volume of receivers in the draft, but good God, you could have gotten better value. And it doesn’t stop there.”

    This exec called into question the $18 million guaranteed that Houston allocated for Randall Cobb, the $12 million annual average for Bradley Roby and the $7 million average for Eric Murray. But nearly all the focus was on the Hopkins trade.

    “It seemed like it was, ‘I want to get rid of the guy (Hopkins) because I don’t want the guy,’ instead of, ‘I want to get rid of the guy to get better,’ ” an evaluator said.
     
  11. donkeypunch

    donkeypunch Contributing Member

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    **** this organization.
     
  12. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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  13. leroy

    leroy Contributing Member

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    So you're saying there's a chance?
     
    joshuaao, Dgn1, mikol13 and 2 others like this.
  14. Mr.Scarface

    Mr.Scarface Member

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    If David Johnson fails his physical or there is something in the medical that would require the Cards to add something to the trade.
     
  15. leroy

    leroy Contributing Member

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    It was sarcasm. I know the basics of how trades work. I'm not sure Buttchin does, though. In all likelihood, Johnson will fail his physical and then the Cards will convince Buttchin to send them a 1st and Justin Reed while they send back Sam Bradford.
     
    Nook and Two Sandwiches like this.
  16. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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  17. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Giving away our best players is in the best interest of the team Brian.

     
  18. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    David Johnson is going to be a great addition to our bench.
     
  19. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    BoB needs to stop talking. I guess him and Tilman are doing their best copycat routines sounding like dummies
     
  20. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    Lol I just saw that on IG. The comments are hilarious. All drilling BoB
     

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